AIR - Air NZ.

[winner69]

"AIR is definitely cyclic"

isn't the sharemarket, in general, cyclic?

what stage is AIR now?

rugby teams are cyclic, life is cyclic, airlines stocks are historically cyclic, so what? are you going to short AIR? no you're not because 'cyclic' is just a meaningless label.

Just as the trend is your friend ignore 'cyclic' things at your peril

[arc]

A man on a bicycle rides from Tairua to Coromandel. The road between is comprised of flat areas, gentle rises, gut busting hills, high speed descents, terrifying slippery downhill corners...especially in the rain, wonderful views worthy of international magazines. The man starts his ride at 3.5 meters above sea level in Tairua, he finishes the ride at the same altitude in Coromandel. If you subtract all the downhills from all the uphills there is no difference, technically speaking the course involves no "work" as there is no gravitational induced gain by altitude adjustment when the course is normalised over its entirety... and yet the course is definitely cyclic. Months of training, months of sweat and sore muscles, and yet he does no work... Go figure..

[Beagle]

Chris Luxon's concluding remark from the annual results conference call, "onward and upward" Inconsistent with the notion we're at the top of the cycle in my opinion.
Happy holder.

[winner69]

Chris Luxon's concluding remark from the annual results conference call, "onward and upward" Inconsistent with the notion we're at the top of the cycle in my opinion.
Happy holder.

Earnings maybe onwards but then there's always that pesky market sentiment that often is cyclical ....AIR at a PE of 7 again is ?

[Beagle]

Not losing any sleep over my AIR holding mate. Their PE is pretty consistent with other airlines I monitor and I am very comfortable with the caliber of senior management, fleet composition, average age, forward capex cycle coming to a conclusion and their fundamentals.
Their current PE of 10 needs to be viewed in the context of a market PE of double that. Happy it represents fair value and a good hold and remember that their most recent profit was made during a period of time when competition could have been at a cyclical high. Many recent entrants have now pulled back on capacity for the FY18 year and remember too that we are presently lapping the time of year when new entrants offered dirt cheap opening specials for months on end at unsustainable pricing, pricing that we're not seeing repeated on a widespread basis. (i.e. AIR's management are confident on the RPK outlook).
Prresently sitting by the food bowl looking forward to the imminent meal service

[winner69]

Not losing any sleep over my AIR holding mate. Their PE is pretty consistent with other airlines I monitor and I am very comfortable with the caliber of senior management, fleet composition, average age, forward capex cycle coming to a conclusion and their fundamentals.
Their current PE of 10 needs to be viewed in the context of a market PE of double that. Happy it represents fair value and a good hold and remember that their most recent profit was made during a period of time when competition could have been at a cyclical high. Many recent entrants have now pulled back on capacity for the FY18 year and remember too that we are presently lapping the time of year when new entrants offered dirt cheap opening specials for months on end at unsustainable pricing, pricing that we're not seeing repeated on a widespread basis. (i.e. AIR's management are confident on the RPK outlook).
Prresently sitting by the food bowl looking forward to the imminent meal service

Don't overlook that over many years AIR' PE is generally about 50% of the overall market PE (except in really bad years when it has got to above market avaerage)

So maybe priced about 'right' now

Weird eh possums

[Beagle]

10 year average PE is 11 you told me a while back mate. I think the way they weathered the storm of new competition last year and still achieved the second highest profit ever in 77 years really shows up the resilience of their business model. Now some competitors are starting to act more rationally...who knows, maybe $600m plus on the cards for FY18 and we see $4 in due course ?
$630m would give us 40 cps and we use your 10 year average PE of 11, heck maybe $4.40 this time next year Unwise to suggest this doesn't have both upside and downside potential in my view but at present I remain of the view until we get more visibility on earnings they're about fair value.
I'll probably attend the annual meeting on 28 September and although I'm not expecting any further formal profit guidance, (other than what's already been stated) it will be interesting to pick up on the degree of positivity, tone and general body language and besides that the salmon sandwiches were great last time.

[winner69]

Even if Sir John flees NZ after selling the country down the river suppose he can still be of value as a Director

Maybe even better having overseas directors anyway

[see weed]

Has AIR got a DRP for the last div?

[babymonster]

no, not for a long time