AIR - Air NZ.

[BlackPeter]

Are you guys watching the share price this morning? This is crazy

Exuberance? Might be a timely warning to take profits and leave ...

But on the other hand - hype can do amazing things to share prices and impossible to predict when the bubble will burst.

[BlackPeter]

This might be relevant for anybody still pondering to jump on the recent bounce:

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/07/b...rus/index.html

Lufthansa' (DLAKY)s assessment is that "it will take months until the global travel restrictions are completely lifted and years until the worldwide demand for air travel returns to pre-crisis levels." Based on this, it has decided on "extensive measures to reduce the capacity of flight operations and administration long term," it said.

Anyway - good luck to holders ...

[mikeybycrikey]

I guess in the last two days we've had a trading halt for Virgin and now a support plan for US airlines.... and AIR is up 30% or something.

Even despite both of those things I don't see AIR being back to anything close to their earlier profitability within 3 years or maybe even more. And they will be on track for an absolutely enormous loss this year.

I've still got a small holding of AIR that I neglected to sell earlier. Might have to get out while I still can.

[percy]

"regional services should be operated by a fleet of Dash 8's and ATRs
for public service routes, and "charter by demise" arrangements made
with operators like Alliance". " The Brisbane-based
carrier, with an all Fokker fleet of 49 aircraft, has been touted as a
possible "replacement" for Virgin Australia should the airline fail to
see out the crisis. When Virgin Blue, stepped up to take the place of
Ansett in late2001, the airline had a mere nine aircraft in its fleet".

[Blue Skies]

What’s going on with AIR!
From .85 to 120 in the last 6 days.
Can’t see any planes in the sky above Auckland, must be flying all over the rest of the country!

[BIRMANBOY]

A timely reminder that the Share Market is NOT about the intrinsic value of the company it is ALL about market sentiment...Its a market...same as the Abu Dhabi camel market just the participants here generally are better dressed.....or in the case as present, probably not.

[Hoop]

What’s going on with AIR!
From .85 to 120 in the last 6 days.
Can’t see any planes in the sky above Auckland, must be flying all over the rest of the country!

Likewise, "whats going on" to the whole Global Equities market..I have been investing for 47 years now and I must admit I have got no idea what the Equity market is doing atm...The equity market is meant to be forward looking and in my opinion that suggests the market is extremely over valued..As far as AIR (a cyclical stock dependent on economic conditions) is concerned the price rise, a relief rally or not, makes no sense to me fundamentally..

Market runs on sentiment and when sentiment conflicts with Value TA becomes the better investment measure, as TA measures sentiment...

The chart below shows the recent 40ish% gain off a shocking plunge..AIR is a bear and in market theory the price rally suggests a bear market correction which will end with a lower high at a resistance point (line)..The nearest resistance line is a gap line and today AIR has ignored it and broken through thanks to the positive momentum of the markets overnight...However this TAer takes this optimistic price break as a precaution that AIR is still a hold..but buying/accumulating needs confirmation as to how far further this rally can go..after this break trough the $1.50 is the next resistance area which coincides with closing the gap, I monumental task I would have thought but at the moment the markets are insane so I don't disregard any targets..
Attachment 11300

[Independent Observer AUNZ]

Likewise, "whats going on" to the whole Global Equities market..I have been investing for 47 years now and I must admit I have got no idea what the Equity market is doing atm...The equity market is meant to be forward looking and in my opinion that suggests the market is extremely over valued..As far as AIR (a cyclical stock dependent on economic conditions) is concerned the price rise, a relief rally or not, makes no sense to me fundamentally..

Market runs on sentiment and when sentiment conflicts with Value TA becomes the better investment measure, as TA measures sentiment...

The chart below shows the recent 40ish% gain off a shocking plunge..AIR is a bear and in market theory the price rally suggests a bear market correction which will end with a lower high at a resistance point (line)..The nearest resistance line is a gap line and today AIR has ignored it and broken through thanks to the positive momentum of the markets overnight...However this TAer takes this optimistic price break as a precaution that AIR is still a hold..but buying/accumulating needs confirmation as to how far further this rally can go..after this break trough the $1.50 is the next resistance area which coincides with closing the gap, I monumental task I would have thought but at the moment the markets are insane so I don't disregard any targets..
Attachment 11295

Buuuuuut does any of this traditional analytical logic apply given the underlying conditions? I would see this as a fresh opportunity to short these shares...

[mp52]

The chart below showsAttachment 11295

Getting an "Invalid Attachment" error mate.

[biker]

What’s going on with AIR!
From .85 to 120 in the last 6 days.
Can’t see any planes in the sky above Auckland, must be flying all over the rest of the country!

Is this not the distortion large scale shorting creates in the market place?