AIR - Air NZ.

[freddagg]

Roger you are correct, my apologies. I checked out the ATSB report and they said this:

"The flight crew jettisoned some fuel to reduce the overall landing weight to 445 tonnes, which was above the maximum landing weight of 391 tonnes. The flight crew then
prepared to conduct an overweight landing."

So the journalist was sensationalizing somewhat. It was not above the maximum landing weight as they did an "overweight landing."

[mp52]

I think Its time to start the inevitable thread--(wont clutter up this thread with more info)

Wise idea I think. One thing you can depend on the media for (especially in the US) is to whip a feeding frenzy of fear (and consequent self-medicating consumerism). Not to discount the seriousness of the contagion.

[biker]

Roger you are correct, my apologies. I checked out the ATSB report and they said this:

"The flight crew jettisoned some fuel to reduce the overall landing weight to 445 tonnes, which was above the maximum landing weight of 391 tonnes. The flight crew then
prepared to conduct an overweight landing."

So the journalist was sensationalizing somewhat. It was not above the maximum landing weight as they did an "overweight landing."

It WAS above the Maximum certified landing weight. 54 tonnes above it. Obviously an aircraft can land above its certified weight, but only in an emergency. Max landing weight is a certified operating maximum. Not an actual physical maximum.
The aircraft would have required an overweight landing check on arrival. No big deal.

[Beagle]

Yeah, good idea to keep the Ebola thing to a separate thread. I am sensitive to the fact that some people who purchased recently are going through some pain at the moment with the stock so I would just like to re-iterate my opinion that management appear to have first class skills, Chris Luxon appears to be an extremely intelligent and highly articulate leader and they have a modern fuel efficient fleet and no direct flights to Africa so hopefully with excellent management and some geographical isolation they can manage their way through this thing without too much financial damage or illness to staff.

Thanks Mod.

[skid]

The Ebola thread will be for updates etc,but I do think that unlike some shares it is something to keep in mind--I dont think anyone is cancelling their vacation yet and it may never come to deciding to postpone the holiday but it cant hurt to keep an eye on both Ebola and the US sharemarket.
The 2 biggest fears around Dow and Ebola and AIR is actually UP---So far so good guys but keep the ole defense primed just in case

[winner69]

Virgin buy the bit of Tiger they didn't already own for $1 (amazing what a buck can buy eh)

Virgin Q1 loss $60m

http://www.watoday.com.au/business/a...17-117g4x.html

[Beagle]

Free to a good home. One emaciated tiger, seriously wounded, de-sexed, missing all its teeth and claws.

[Marilyn Munroe]

Strewth cobbers Cullen Airlines have dived deeper into the great Australian airline cash burn with their subsidiary Virgin(Underarm Bowlers Division) buying the shares in Tiger Australia it doesnt already own.

The price paid for this transaction of one Aussie dollar tells you all you need to know.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/2014101...ywv5jzqt00.pdf


Boop boop de do
Marilyn

Edit: I see winner69 and Roger have already posted on this news.

[modandm]

Nick Mar (Macquarie) has just put out the best analysis on Air NZ I have ever seen - very fine work, really detailed data (literally route by route) he has got from OAG (subscription database), and more just geeky detailed work. Looking at it in detail I recognize many of his assumptions as similar to my own, although he is conservative in places. I think he hasn't picked up the handling costs of fuel either, but his assumptions work okay with my thinking.
If any of you get the chance do read it.

Anyway he as a $2.45 price target based on 3.5x forward EV/EBITDAR, the historical average (equates about 11x PE - applying virgins losses to earnings).
The issue I would have is that he hasn't added anything for the value of the virgin stake. Last I checked Virgin was worth c.38cps. Even at half that, your looking @$2.64.
The stock has also traded up to 4x EV/EBITDAR regularly which would give $2.85, adding half the virgin stake gives $3.00+

I'm happy to say that I think on medium term assumptions of 80c NZD, and Brent $98bbl, the company is worth somewhere between $2.60 and $2.80. If you paid this sort of price, you could expect a return of around 5-6% pa in dividends and about 8-12% growth in EBITDAR, or EPS (roughly on average over the years FY16 through 2020), offering prospective returns of 13-18%, which I think is what most would require to own the share.

For investors at the current market price, should the stock move towards my valuation range, well thats tasty upside of between 40% and 55%, with a dividend of 7% on top. How many stocks you own with that upside over 1 year?

I'm pretty convinced this is really good analysis, but of course there are uncontrollable factors that may see this not play out.

Now you see why I have so many shares right...

[modandm]

my comments on buying rest of tiger. Its good news, cleaner, and gives VAH all the upside if they can get it working (which they will eventually).

With a perfectly balanced duopoly its simply a matter of time before QAN and VAH start behaving rationally on the domestic market, and start raking in the cash.