Hoop, a quick glance (as usual) at your chart throws out an almost textbook bearish bat formation nearly completed. Gut instinct (only) suggests it's a sell around $3
I don't think anyone can but the international energy agency reckons we're in a classic over-supply situation with an estimated 2m barrels a day looking for a home / storage facility.
Long term futures still tend to indicate that lower prices will be "sticky"
Sure its a cyclical stock but nobody seems able to reliably predict what part of the cycle we're at. Maybe we're only in the second year of what could be a seven year bull phase for growth ? The way I see it, central banks around the world have no choice but to initiate policies that perpetuate ultra low interest rates for the foreseeable future, perhaps for as long as a decade ?. Such an environment is usually good for a sustained period of growth and relatively high level's of consumers disposable income....for I dunno what ?, maybe travel
Hoop, a quick glance (as usual) at your chart throws out an almost textbook bearish bat formation nearly completed. Gut instinct (only) suggests it's a sell around $3
Mr Bulkowski doesnt seem to mention bat formations in his book
What they look like ...interested I am in new things
You were right with the flags etc on the aud thread (at least think it was you)
funnily enough, this is a bearish bio-tech bat... image.jpg
but the bearish bat formation belongs to the 'gartleys, butterflys, bats and crabs' family of chart formations on which there is masses of info on the net. I guess the bat formation is named such due to the height of the 'wings' on each side of the formation.
Fits well with cyclicals, which do tend to be strong trenders once a new trend develops. We are seeing this in AIR right now, it is strongly trending, and no imminent reason to buck the trend. I say the $3 area might be an interesting point to be wary, because of my batty outlook of charts
Although the current mark to market number looks a bit unfortunate this will be something AIR has in common with the vast majority of other airlines around the world and it needs to be viewed in context with:-
1. The current very low spot prices which nobody would have been game enough to predict six months ago
2. The fact that they haven't hedged much extra at all since October, just a little more for Q4 2015.
3. The company will accrue some benefit from unhedged fuel in the first half and significant benefits in the second half
4. Very little fuel hedging is in place for FY 2016
Operating stat's looks good to me. Solid demand and some yield growth. New route to Singapore demonstrates the airlines ability to materially grow capacity over time and marks a major departure from many years of very close to zero capacity growth i.e its now a growth stock
Looking forward to next week's result and outlook upgrade.
Decent result from VAH, they are improving nicely. Bodes well for a contribution in 2016.
The big question I have on AIR for FY16 is the yield assumption. I was slightly disappointed at the yield decline in January. There is a mix shift towards lower yield long haul, which does create headwinds, but these could be offset by a weaker NZD and by stronger demand. Guidance as to how they see demand, and yields progressing will be key. It's a big swing factor.
They have raised their fuel consumption forecast (again...), does this mean more capacity is planned? Possible 767 retirement delay? I hope so.
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Originally Posted by tim23
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