AIR - Air NZ.

[Beagle]

The word up our way is that Ewan reckons this time around his airline will keep well out of AirNZ's way. He learn't his lesson with Kiwi Air about competing head on with a giant..His business plan is to not compete with AirNZ therefore AirNZ won't see his airline as a threat and destroy his airlines profit margins...Theory has it that this strategy may work Roger as with any small new entrant the most successful way into a pond dominated by one very big fish and a couple of medium size chappies is to find a small dark comfy niche and keep well out of sight..

You mean just like a large Rat does

So a current P/E of just under 8... enough said.

Not quite. Interesting that Craigs are the most optimistic, I'd say realistic about AIR with their value $3.30 but notwithstanding picking circa 38 cents EPS for FY16 are forecasting that as the peak, like many other brokers with EPS tailing off to 26 cps in FY17. Quite how brokers think they can pick such a dramatic tailing off in earnings in FY17 remains a mystery to me. What if they're wrong and growth just keeps on coming (Sits and waits for another explanation from Mod regarding peak PE's relative to normal year PE...perhaps some explanation of how they're so psychic with picking the peak of the earnings cycle so far out would be useful ). I reckon all this peak of the cycle is nonsense. Economy is hardly firing off like a rock star is it !!

We have EPS this year of circa 34 cents and that's on most of the year paying quite a lot for fuel and we have a 10 year normal PE of 10, (you could argue to use 11-12 seeing as all PE's are super stretched because of ultra low interest rates which will remain so for the foreseeable future. Apply a PE of 11 to 34 cents and you get fair value of $3.74. Simple. Its too far out to reliably predict FY17 results in this industry so all brokers estimates are just guesses as far as I'm concerned. Fair value to me is $3.50-$3.75.

[Zaphod]

A little more competition for AirNZ from Jetstar - Qantas Points are now may be earned on Jetstar flights.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11470927

[Zaphod]

The word up our way is that Ewan reckons this time around his airline will keep well out of AirNZ's way. He learn't his lesson with Kiwi Air about competing head on with a giant..His business plan is to not compete with AirNZ therefore AirNZ won't see his airline as a threat and destroy his airlines profit margins...Theory has it that this strategy may work Roger as with any small new entrant the most successful way into a pond dominated by one very big fish and a couple of medium size chappies is to find a small dark comfy niche and keep well out of sight..

I am left wondering what is the market for HLZ - NSN flights? HLZ ranks 10th in NZ in terms of passenger numbers, some 50,000 passengers per annum behind NPL. HLZ has not experienced any passenger growth for some time, while most other have seen significant growth.

KRA also only have a single Saab 340. A foggy HLZ morning will see flights cancelled or delayed throughout their network, which will hardly be an auspicious start for them. Additionally, they face a VERY tight schedule due to flight timing restrictions in ZQN.

Flying unproven third tier roots won't have a material impact on either AirNZ or Jetstar.

[Beagle]

I am left wondering what is the market for HLZ - NSN flights? HLZ ranks 10th in NZ in terms of passenger numbers, some 50,000 passengers per annum behind NPL. HLZ has not experienced any passenger growth for some time, while most other have seen significant growth.

KRA also only have a single Saab 340. A foggy HLZ morning will see flights cancelled or delayed throughout their network, which will hardly be an auspicious start for them. Additionally, they face a VERY tight schedule due to flight timing restrictions in ZQN.

Flying unproven third tier roots won't have any impact on either AirNZ or Jetstar.

Fixed that for ya

[theace]

Qantas adds more flights across Tasman

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11471070

[winner69]

Qantas adds more flights across Tasman

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11471070

As a regular on WLG/MEL this good news

AIR schedules hopeless ....some days no choice but QAN if one wants to avoid AKL or SYD

[Hoop]

I am left wondering what is the market for HLZ - NSN flights? HLZ ranks 10th in NZ in terms of passenger numbers, some 50,000 passengers per annum behind NPL. HLZ has not experienced any passenger growth for some time, while most other have seen significant growth.

KRA also only have a single Saab 340. A foggy HLZ morning will see flights cancelled or delayed throughout their network, which will hardly be an auspicious start for them. Additionally, they face a VERY tight schedule due to flight timing restrictions in ZQN.

Flying unproven third tier roots won't have a material impact on either AirNZ or Jetstar.

Yeah totally agree ... insignificant.

[Zaphod]

Fixed that for ya

Thanks Roger :P Obviously you're even more downbeat than me about KRA's chances in this market. While I wish Ewan's business well, I think this is all just a short-term pipe dream.

[Beagle]

Off Wikipedia the last Saab 340 was manufactured in 1998 which suggests this early 1980's design is well and truly coming to the end of its useful life.
I can't imagine that people will really be happy to fly in 20 year old slow aircraft (467 k.p.h.) and that the economics of this 34 seat capacity plane are all that good compared to a modern ATR62 like AIR use.
AIR are retiring the Beech 1900 because of this sort of age and related inefficiencies and maintenance issues. Wilson is realty scraping the bottom of the aviation barrel flying a design of this age and type on third tier unproven routes. His backers will need a lot of luck.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saab_340

[brend]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11473472

More competition on the way.

It seems AIR monopoly for long haul destinations is slowing coming to an end. They have been very good at being the sole carrier for so many destinations for so long.

They only really faced competition on the Hawaii/Perth routes (excluding HKG due to code-share arrangements)