AIR - Air NZ.

[Beagle]

Exactly.
And that is "the nature of the beast".
Problem is it will always be the case.
Bit different from your experience in the retirement village sector?

No it won't Percy. Capex is circa only $175m in FY20 and that only moves the average fleet age from a record low of 6.2 years to only 6.9 years, still a full three years younger than the average worldwide fleet age according to IATA which is 9.9 years old.

Surely you and some other naysayers can understand that AIR are in the middle of a major fleet expansion and renewal programme. (please read the presentation that accompanied the investor day presentation so you have a basic grip on the facts). https://nzx.com/companies/AIR/announcements/281646

But I tell you what seeing as some appear struggle with this let me make it simple.

AIR could spend nothing on capex for FY21, FY22, FY23 and their average fleet age would still be less than the average aircraft age according to official IATA data and still running a far bigger fleet than what they were ten years ago, that would be fourteen years ago by 2024.

"There is tremendous potential for free cash flow generation later this decade" Quote Rob McDonald CFO at the analysts briefing that accompanies February 2016 half year profit announcement.

People who are fixated with excess capex really don't even appear to have the most basic understanding about the airline.

[Beagle]

Big spending is the name of the game in this industry if you want the youngest most efficient fleet around.

Some people don't understand that AIR are setting up the business to be sustainable when $100 oil comes along. Those same people don't seem to understand that AIR are presently growing at the fastest rate in over 75 years...you'd think those people would understand you have to invest capex for business growth wouldn't you...go figure

[skid]

Flew two weeks ago on Air Asia. ( Well you do have to try new things )..

Auck. - Kl. it was full. the service received was what was paid for.. Cheap.

Flew today HK. - Dubai. Emirates.. Service excellent. The aircraft was a dubious 1/3 full..

Competition is definitely going to hurt ....

Other than ''user pays on food'' was Air Asia bearable?

Its obviously just one case but if its a reflection of things generally it sounds like people are going for economy.

Ive noticed some cheap prices with AIR--I personally think they are going to have to do some serious ''meeting the market''.
Cheaper prices will affect the balance sheet,but filling planes is still the best option(If thats what it takes)--Its a new game now and the trick will be whether management adapts. Im sure they have the computer program that determines ticket price according to how much of the plane is booked-but they may have to ratchet it down,if they start getting higher vacancy--especially on long haul

Even in rental accommodation there are similarities--2-3 weeks of vacancy can quickly eat up any profits from looking for higher rents.

[Zaphod]

Air Asia X certainly fits the low cost carrier (LCC) category and even some of our young cost-conscious staff have vowed to avoid flying with them again. Having said that, there's always a segment of the market that will choose their carrier purely on cost who IMO, are well catered for by the myriad of LCC's in the marketplace today. At this point I can't see Air NZ choosing to cater for this market outside of the existing seats-to-suit product, but if they do it would represent a race to the bottom.

[Baa_Baa]

Technically yesterday's $2.30 close is really ugly, a triple bottom break-down on top on a 4-year rising support trend line break-down (log and arithmetic scales), both previous supports now resistance. The bat spread it's wings and the head and shoulders break-down is firmly in play.

p.s. Winner asked about the OBV (On Balance Volume), some sort of 'smart money' indicator (not sure about that ..) ... but it's plunging off the cliff as well.

[Beagle]

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/qatar-a...vice-ng-188788

Qatar delay's launch.

[OldGuy]

wow, some of the financial "analysis" on these boards makes my head hurt...

[skid]

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/qatar-a...vice-ng-188788

Qatar delay's launch.

I still think 18hrs in the air is pushing it,unless maybe they install a gym

[Beagle]

I still think 18hrs in the air is pushing it,unless maybe they install a gym

I just hope they've done their fuel burn calculations right and don't encounter headwinds

[winner69]

In the words of Mark Knopfler

Why worry
There should be laughter after pain
There should be sunshine after rain
There should be a rise in AIR shares again
These things have always been the same
So why worry now
Why worry now