AIR - Air NZ.

[stoploss]

It will still inform them that there are shareholders out here that watch what they do and not all are in agreement with their actions. If top management in NZ were so fantastic then the Shareholders Association would never have been formed.

Emails such as Roger's at least makes them have a look at what has taken place and they can perhaps do better next time.

Shareholders own the company not the managers. They are just employees of the company.

But in this case the problem is the managers are shareholders ......

[mayday]

How To Lose Friends And Influence People by Roger Ramjet
What a condescending post!
Note all the "WE's" (I count 7 )as if he is speaking for all of us!!!. Speak only for yourself!!
Speaking of Agendas never has one been so driven as him ; many hundreds of posts on here; many back up the truck and load up in the high $2..A stopped clock is right twice a day!.

Whats the finance fiasco got to do with anything including HBL!!!.

Good point H2SO4 Doing the opposite to the" professionals" is often a good tactic.they have so many agendas of their own like looking after the "smart" money above all else.

AIR has always been a traders cyclic dream and if Instos have made the decision to sell down/out they will keep going until they've finished regardless of the s/p.Then just maybe one can hope for a new cycle and make some dough.

Its great to have ALL opinions on here esp conservative balanced ones

Good point, Josh. I remember how ATM sp was being traded at the same time last year, once it had reached as low as 0.485 cents before jumping over $2 within less than 12 months......down was driven by NZ first captial and milford asset management and some other instos (can't remember their names) selling off their stakes in company yet it also created one unique opportunity for buyers....luckily I bought a few 'falling knives' at that time...me think AIR sp will be re valued and stablise within next couple of weeks. IMHO, DYOR

[Beagle]

Happy for all the naysayers to run rampant. Hammer on standby

[couta1]

While there are over 3 thousand members on the forum,only a tiny percentage of that number bother to contribute, so without posters like Roger who are willing to put in a considerable effort, this forum would be a pretty dull place.

[Joshuatree]

Contributions and all opinions are welcome ; attempts to influence and inferring only one person is correct and everyone else is wrong, acting like a qualified financial advisor isn't nor is being the acting spokesman for those 3000 or preaching in an autocratic style. An open moving discussion is great..

[hamish]

FYI - Article on AIR NZ Exec's Share Trades and Special Dividend Possibility (re-typed from from NBR May 6)

Air New Zealand executives have sold $5 million of their company shares this year even as analysts look forward to a special dividend from the sale of its Virgin Australia stake.
The biggest seller was chief financial officer Rob McDonald, who sold shares and cashed in options to realise $1.8 million.
The long-serving CFO also sold shares and cashed in options in December to realise $1.16 million, bringing his total share sales in the last six months to almost $3 million.
Views on the significance of executive share sales are mixed.
One analyst, who asked not to be named, said airline executives worked in a volatile industry where share price appreciation was relatively rare.
“I don’t begrudge them selling stock on that basis,” he said. “We need to be a little more forgiving based on the history of the business and the airline sector.”
Although executive share transactions could be seen as a signal of company fortunes, he did not see it as an indicator in this case.
“I don’t think this management team or any airline management have a strong ability to forecast the future,” he said.
Fund managers had another perspective on the sales.
“You’d always rather see people buying shares than selling them,” said one, although “everyone’s aware the business of airlines is extraordinarily cyclical.”
Andrew Bascand of Harbour Asset Management said whatever the reason for the sales some investors would draw conclusions.
“Is this a positive or a negative signal?” he said. “Globally, quantitative analysis does indicate that on average significant selling by executives can be a signal for underperformance in out years.”
Globally, there could be investors who use that as a signal and do respond themselves, and that itself can create weakness in the share price.”
However, “they’ve created shareholder wealth haven’t they – no doubt about that.”
On Tuesday an Air NZ investor presentation said the company saw lower profits in 2017, based on the impact of competition and the absence of favourable foreign exchange hedges affecting the 2016 result.
“Expect 2017 earnings to be be solid while not at the level of 2016,” the company said.
In February Air NZ said its pretax earnings were expected to be more than $800 million for the year to June, well ahead of the comparable 2015 figure of $496 million.
All the executive share sales occurred before Air NZ’s market update but investors said they were already aware the airline’s 2017 performance would not match the particularly high level seen this year.
“That was already in everyone’s forecasts,” said a fund manager.
Special dividend
An Air NZ spokesperson said executives were not permitted to trade during the preparation of the half-year results and during discussions of its Virgin Australia selldown, announced on March 30. “The recent increase in executive trade sales disclosed to the NZX reflects a small backlog that might have otherwise been spread more evenly across this period.”
All the 2016 trades disclosed to the NZX took place since March 31.
This week’s presentation also highlighted Air NZ’s ability to attach imputation credits for a dividend of up to $750 million, seen by some as indicating a special dividend is in the offing.
The source of the money would be Air NZ’s pending sale of its 25.9% stake in Virgin Australia, which at current prices is worth about $300 million.
The analyst said the implication of Air NZ’s comment on imputation credits was clear.
“You can draw the dots quite quickly.”
Mr Bascand said Harbour analyst Shane Solly, who was at the airline’s presentation, drew clear conclusions.
“Shane’s strong impression was unless they find something to do with that capital you should expect a special dividend or a more progressive dividend policy. I think with airlines, because of the volatility of their earnings, a special dividend’s more appropriate.”
For the year to June 2015 Air NZ paid ordinary dividends of 16c a share, or about $180 million.

[hamish]

Contributions and all opinions are welcome ; attempts to influence and inferring only one person is correct and everyone else is wrong, acting like a qualified financial advisor isn't nor is being the acting spokesman for those 3000 or preaching in an autocratic style. An open moving discussion is great..

Surely, everyone reading these forums takes would / should take all posts as 'info from like minded informed amateurs' and seek financial advise as needed. I enjoy everyone's diverse views. Adds to the colour

[workingdad]

Nothing wrong with differing opinions but I have found some comments over the last couple of weeks poor form and really would prefer if those with an agenda of taking a personal dig keep it to themselves. I value all the view points of various posters and appreciate the time some put into analysis and charts, thank you for that.

On AIR. The headwinds with competition as I see it, even if it eats into 10% of AIR's market in the next year with a 10% increase in tourism surely that's merely a break even point from the current climate of increased sales.

Fridays trading was interesting, shortly after opening a sharp drop associated with a large parcel of shares and the subsequent panic sell off an hour or so later it had all but recovered and traded in that 2.26 range for the majority of the day, not as many sellers coming in as in previous days so perhaps a reluctance for the remaining holders to sell. Doesn't rule out institutions selling but perhaps from my perspective there is some merit in stating the drop is nearing a conclusion and perhaps more likelihood of starting to recover next week? I am wanting to buy back in but being a bit more cautious than I have been in the past with taking a hit of AIR in the last couple of weeks.

I agree with some others that VAH is the monkey on the back at present and this would be the catalyst for a strong recovery if its a reasonable outcome.

Until then, I have a day trip to wellington with AIR on the 23rd so will take note of how full the A320 is. Yes there are cheaper fares available but Koru will keep me AIR as I enjoy the downtime it offers and of course the snacks and coffee

[Baa_Baa]

It's understandable that there would be a few frayed nerves when AIR share price comprehensively breaks down after so recently exciting holders with news highs, a 30% fall from grace!

But break down it did, big time, through all notable short and medium term technical supports. The one technical glimmer of hope at the moment is the Friday probe below long term support from Jun'14 and Sep'14 and recovering to close right on it.

Otherwise it's a mess and buyer or seller right now might as well be in a casino rolling the dice.

Attachment 8036

[Leftfield]

Thanks Baa Baa...... much is resting AIR's exit from VAH and that is a rolling dice (BTW check out the similarities in VAH's SP graph.)