AIR - Air NZ.

[Arbroath]

Well I have consistenly over the entire time I have been on Sharetrader said that I do not believe that one should invest in any airline.

FYI Currently VAH has a domestic network and QAN has an investment grade rating.


Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Fair enough but I'm not debating the merits of airlines per Se just that AIR is clearly better than QAN or VAH. I know QAN got their rating back but it's only because of leverage to low fuel prices imo. They lost their rating a few years ago while AIR maintained theirs. VAH has c 35% of the domestic air traffic in OZ but have been a perennial loss maker compared to AIR who have c 90% market share on the NZ domestic network and successfully milk that franchise to support the airline as a whole despite any local criticism. A bit like how people hate banks and petrol companies but they have to use them and they keep making $$. Jetstar can peg them back a little but it doesn't compare to what QAN do to VAH and vice versa.

AIR will no doubt pay good dividends for this and next year and is cheaper on earnings than QAN and VAH but whether it is of itself a good investment is much more complicated.

[Mickey]

Well I have consistenly over the entire time I have been on Sharetrader said that I do not believe that one should invest in any airline.

So if you hold onto this belief so strongly, why do you come into this thread? Why not leave this thread for those who currently invest / trade or have AIR in their watchlist.

Discl: holding AIR

[Raz]

So if you hold onto this belief so strongly, why do you come into this thread? Why not leave this thread for those who currently invest / trade or have AIR in their watchlist.

Discl: holding AIR

Well its may not be his reason however i appreciate PT posts as he provides a different perspective for consideration as an investor/trader. If we just get the positive ra ra from the cheerleaders we lose something.... equally if the place is dominated by pessimists...we lose information to make a balanced view.

[Biscuit]

Why not leave this thread for those who currently invest / trade or have AIR in their watchlist.

That would be very bad for the forum.

[Baddarcy]

That would be very bad for the forum.

Agreed, the point for me of this forum is to hear as many different points of view as possible. You learn a lot more from listening than from talking.

[stoploss]

So if you hold onto this belief so strongly, why do you come into this thread? Why not leave this thread for those who currently invest / trade or have AIR in their watchlist.

Discl: holding AIR

If his posts upset you put him
on ignore . But maybe one day he will like the AIR numbers and you will miss the post ....

[kuotadriver]

Personally I'm stunned how quickly the world wide commercial airline outlook has turned.

Also best not to pixx off the locals especially if tourism were to drop off. See below, been waiting for this to be raised. When the weather is bad from Christchurch into Wellington or Queenstown you do not want to be on a ATR 72..chances are they will turn around and take you back to Christchurch. After the first few times this happened everyone now wants to book on the airbus which is now limited flights...

http://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel...rs-are-suckers

If an ATR can't make it in to Wellington, then chances are, an A320 won't be able to either.

It would be extremely rare for an ATR to divert back to Christchurch from Wellington.

[Beagle]

That´s very true Roger although AIR´s profitable domestic network relies on tourists, many from Europe, to keep the planes full.
My post was more about pointing out some gathering clouds for the industry as a whole, clouds that are quite dark at present. Worth watching in my view mate.

Absolutely agree mate. I suspect there's two sides to this though. Some of the people that would have gone to Europe for their holiday will visit down-under instead for our clean / green / safe environment.

Latest stat's from Tourism N.Z. show 11% growth so they're still coming in droves. Whether AIR is getting its share of this growth or many of these new travellers are coming in on bargain Chinese / Asian flights is another question.

Latest operating stat's from AIR tend to indicate their growth is at a lower rate than the inbound tourism growth so some slippage in market share appears to be evident.

[Raz]

Absolutely agree mate. I suspect there's two sides to this though. Some of the people that would have gone to Europe for their holiday will visit down-under instead for our clean / green / safe environment.

Latest stat's from Tourism N.Z. show 11% growth so they're still coming in droves. Whether AIR is getting its share of this growth or many of these new travellers are coming in on bargain Chinese / Asian flights is another question.

Latest operating stat's from AIR tend to indicate their growth is at a lower rate than the inbound tourism growth so some slippage in market share appears to be evident.

So how much are we losing of market share given options into Auckland, Queenstown and Christchurch..will Wellington also follow this trend..I guess we will keep the domestic traffic. I do wonder on the Auckland hub approach and how much competition that does allow in elsewhere. When the horse has bolted...

[kiora]

That would be very bad for the forum.

Hear ,hear,I agree with that!