AIR - Air NZ.

[BlackPeter]

Don't see anyone on here with the same thinking on the special(s.) I reckon only ~ 75 cps in total FY20-FY22 when the capex holiday is in full swing. After completing their capex program in my opinion they need to get their gearing right down towards the bottom of the range before paying out special's hence I've made my own judgement call on the estimated amount and timing of specials.

Some people on here were barking that AIR was a screaming buy at $1.75 nine months ago and its doubled since then...and others...well I could go back and post some really good examples of "interesting calls" but that would be impolite but one thing other (perhaps new posters), might like to consider doing is having a look back at this thread in the Sept - December 2016 period when the shares were well under $2 and see who was holding a really negative view back then and see who on the other hand was backing the company 100%.

Roger, not sure whether you do yourself a lot of favours by continuously bagging posters who warned that the AIR euphoria might end some day (actually, I think I was one of them). Sure - use your licence to brag, but don't overdo it.

I don't think anybody said at that stage that AIR can't go up ... people (well, at least me) just pointed to the inherent risks in airlines which should (in my view) command a greater reward.

Now, obviously - some people (including yourself) took the risk - and so far are reaping the rewards. Good on you, but while risk taking is a trait, being lucky is just that. Look - if I tell my teenage son that it is stupid and risky to drive without wearing a seatbelt, than he might laugh at me. The next day he might tell me - look daddy, you told me it is dumb to drive without seat belt but I did do it and and I am fine. You have been wrong - ha ha ha. Same with you. We told you it is risky to buy airline shares, you bought them, the risks didn't eventuate (well, so far) and now you feel smug and over the moon.

As far as I am concerned - nobody can predict where the price of any share will go ... but I still see the risks circling around AIR (as around any other airline). Tourism is peaking - and running into its limits. The usual risks (increased competition, economic turndown, terrorism, pilots with mental health issues, volcanic eruptions) didn't go away - and the SP is clearly at a long term max, meaning that potential future rewards are dropping while the risks don't go away.

I guess it is up to any individual how they assess these risks. However - don't tell me you have been able to foresee that we had no major terror attack, no lost plane and no volcanic eruption over the recent period.

Discl: while I do have several children, they all are beyond their teens and none of them (to my best knowledge) ever drove without wearing a seatbelt - i.e. the example above is just made up.

[Beagle]

Certainly not "continuous", I absolutely refute that. All I am saying BP, (wasn't aimed at you) is that some posters made some very interesting calls on AIR when it was down under $2 in late 2016 and new members on here might like to go back on this thread and read some of the posts over that period. Not naming names but I am entitled too and was responding to Baa Baa's post which I am sure you would have gathered. Some posters are probably entitled to feel content having backed this company and its management through thick and thin and against a barrage of bearish comments on here in late 2016. All stocks carry risks BP.

BTW - New model Honda Civic won't even let you drive away until your seat belt is fastened, shuts off the electronic throttle until seat belt fastened. Brilliant safety device for my wife...say no more

[winner69]

Beagle / BP - I for one mentioned $1.50 was a possibly at the time- based on long term cyclical trends. Wasn't I really stupid

However been a great ride since - doubled my money since.

Have broken my long outstanding rule 'Don't invest in airlines winner'. Always thought it was tempting fate and if I bought a AIRplane would crash and I couldn't have lived knowing I might have been a cause if so many deaths, Still worried.

Also keep reminding myself of Mr P bit if wisdom 'the market giveth, but the market taketh away'. Especially good advise for a 'cyclical' like AIR which is currently trading at high multiples (modandum says high multiples only when profits are bad - but AIR heading to its 2nd highest ever profit ever)

None the less. $4 beckons soon. Good stuff

[Beagle]

Bet you are glad Winner I talked you out of your superstitious hogwash ...although I think one or two people landing at Wellington yesterday might have had cause for concern

[winner69]

Bet you are glad Winner I talked you out of your superstitious hogwash ...although I think one or two people landing at Wellington yesterday might have had cause for concern

Look at this mate ....how not to land at Wellington. Did well the 2nd time around

Always quite a thrill when they decide to take off again while in the air - experienced it a few times myself

Amazing hyperlapse by Mark

http://instagram.com/p/BWdivhNg0Q7/

[stoploss]

BP , can you explain -nobody can predict where the price of any share will go . Then , "SP is clearly at long term max " So sounds like you are calling a top and predicting it to go down ?

[Eval]

Nothing to concern.. heading to $4 very soon. Moners will moan who haven't got hands on this bird

[RTM]

BTW - New model Honda Civic won't even let you drive away until your seat belt is fastened, shuts off the electronic throttle until seat belt fastened. Brilliant safety device for my wife...say no more

Great choice Roger....its all about risk.

https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/h...%20Subscribers

You can get around the safety belt thing by buying a buckle that you can pop in independent of the belt.
And yes...I have AIR shares still, am trying to figure out whether to keep or sell as they are very high, and would like to thank the Beagle and Mod and others for all the opinions and analysis expressed. Very helpful.

Enjoy your Friday...lovely here in the Far North at the moment.

[mikeybycrikey]

I think the problem I've got with all the spruikers and rampers on here is that as the price of any stock gets higher, their cries that "the sky is the limit" and "this time is different" start to get deafening.

Things are going pretty well right now but airlines are a low margin business with potentially a lot of competition.

AIR is sitting pretty right now but all it took a few years ago was a couple of planes flying into a building and profit was banished from the whole industry for a couple of years.

Right now, it could be something as simple as the Auckland property market cooling off and interest rates rising slightly for the property cash machine to stop working. This might cause a few newly rich Auckland property millionaires to stop flying business class everywhere.

Or maybe with this global warming thing, airlines might stop getting a free-ride.

If either of these things were to happen, we might be back at 170 just like last time the AIR forums went crazy with thoughts of the impending rise to cruising altitude of 400 or beyond.

Anything could happen tomorrow yet we're banking on a stream of dividends 3-5 years away!?!

Low margin. Cyclical. Risky. Don't forget it.

Disc: I'm still in but every day get closer to selling.

[BlackPeter]

BP , can you explain -nobody can predict where the price of any share will go . Then , "SP is clearly at long term max " So sounds like you are calling a top and predicting it to go down ?

Trying to be clever or missed maths lessons at school? Have a look at the chart - where is the long term maximum on this graph?

Airmax.JPG

Obviously - tomorrow is another day, and nobody can predict whether the AIR longterm maximum is tomorrow, next month or next year at a different point ;

Never heard about a 100 year weather event coming every couple of years or the hottest year ever - superseded every couple of years?

But I am sure you knew that ... so what exactly was the point of your post?