AIR - Air NZ.

[axe]

can this be a stock manipulation or just big dogs selling their positions?

It could be churn from retail investors selling down as AIR broke down through TA supports - then other investors who tried to catch the bargain hit their stop losses - rinse and repeat and catchy falley knife. We can all look at the same charts.

The Big boys also look at the same charts - why would they buy when the retail folk are chasing the price down like this? Smart money wanting to buy air will be waiting as the price is improving daily.

Buy and hold people can ignore the noise and enjoy the yield

[smtrader]

How effective is AIR hedging policy and results?.. anyone monitoring oil prices and volumes.. results might surprise.

[sb9]

From NBR...for those that do not have access...

Air New Zealand shares sink to a near 19-month low as headwinds increase
Air New Zealand’s [NZX: AIR] shares have sunk to their lowest level in nearly 19 months, plunging more than 33% since early April as the airline’s tailwinds have reversed into headwinds.
The shares fell 4c to $2.02 yesterday, their lowest level since early November 2014, and they have sunk from $3.04 on April 8.
Among the reasons for the share price fall are Air New Zealand’s contracting margins and falling yields as costs, largely from recovering oil prices, rise.
As well, the airline is facing increasing competition.
Salt Funds Management’s joint managing director Matthew Goodson says another factor fuelling the share price decline has been “shorter-term focused offshore investors who aggressively bought the stock earlier and now appear to all be heading for the exits at the same time.”
Air New Zealand’s shares rose more than 260% between January 2012 and January this year.
“The fundamental triggers for those falls have been a lift in oil prices off the bottom, albeit partly offset by lower refining margins, and, more particularly, an increase in competition for Air New Zealand on a number of its routes,” Mr Goodson says.
“Clearly, a lower jet fuel environment has stimulated new entries,” he says.
While some have commented Air New Zealand’s expectations that much of its future growth will come from the lower margin leisure market, Mr Goodson doesn’t think that matters much.
“The key for Air New Zealand is that it has an extremely powerful domestic position that it can feed into its international routes,” he says.
“What you find with many of Air New Zealand’s international routes is that they’re long and skinny, so in many cases there’s room for one-and-a-half airlines,” he says.
Discounting to fill seats
If there’s only one airline, it can make extremely good money, but when there are two airlines, both need to discount to the degree needed to fill the available seats.
“They’re businesses with enormous operating leverage and it’s that operating leverage that matters far more than any distinction between business and leisure travel,” Mr Goodson says.
“Airline earnings, and therefore valuations, can move around sharply because typically there’s a lot of financial leverage via bank debt or leases to own the planes and also a lot of operating leverage,” he says.
“The combination means quite small changes can lead to quite sharp earnings changes.
“That said, looking at Air New Zealand’s at an earnings level that tries to arbitrate through that, it does look cheap, relative to its international peers and I would have to say many of its market positions are better quality as well.”
Nevertheless, analysts have been downgrading their earnings forecasts from 55c per share for the year ending next month to 48c in 2017 and 37.5c in 2018.
“From the recent investor day, (the company) did reiterate that earnings will be lower next year. However, the market was largely already there and obviously everyone can see the new entries on some of their routes,” Mr Goodson says.
“Really, the question for the market is, is there further downside risk to those forecasts and is there further downside risk in the year after,” he says.
“But already consensus forecasts have earnings falling both in the June 2017 year and the June 2018 year, although looking out that far for an airline really is in the realm of crystal ball gazing.”

[oldtech]

Interesting ...

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11645237

"NZX toughens enquiry process for sudden share price movements"

New Zealand's stock exchange operator, NZX, is to start making confidential enquiries of listed companies that experience large, unexplained share price movements, to determine whether they may be holding undisclosed "material" information even while remaining in compliance with the market's Listing Rules that require disclosure of material information at certain trigger points.

[Joshuatree]

Thanks sb9 ,appreciate it. At the mercy of stampeding offshore investors jamming the funnel to the tank.

Salt Funds Management’s joint managing director Matthew Goodson says another factor fuelling the share price decline has been “shorter-term focused offshore investors who aggressively bought the stock earlier and now appear to all be heading for the exits at the same time.”


[QUOTE=sb9;622084]From NBR...for those that do not have access...

Air New Zealand shares sink to a near 19-month low as headwinds increase

[Beagle]

If the FMA and NZX want investors to take them seriously they need a prosecution against insider trading in a high profile case. A braking dog is useless unless it bites hard from time to time.

I believe we have solid grounds for such a case here but AIR's legal team would likely smother the FMA's tiny legal prosecution budget so the FMA would be reluctant to take them on.
(Disc still holding, DYOR, not to be considered professional advice or a recommendation and contains speculative opinion based on previous experience dealing with the Securities commission, FMA and NZX compliance).

[winner69]

Sage advice from the mighty Rod Drury (his response to the Herald story linked earlier)

Share price is set by most desperate seller or buyer on any given day. Almost no correlation to business performance


Seems appropriate on this thread eh

[mikeybycrikey]

(Disc still holding, DYOR, not to be considered professional advice or a recommendation and contains speculative opinion based on previous experience dealing with the Securities commission, FMA and NZX compliance).

It feels like your disclaimer is getting longer by the day!

Does the FMA have any remedies before trying to raise a prosecution, for example, approaching the company to say that their security trading policy isn't robust enough? I feel like if there is a problem here then that would be more appropriate right now, especially since a successful prosecuton is probably quite difficult, as it should be.

[forest]

Maybe the rules should be changed so all insiders announce to the market, before they buy or sell shares. If they have no inside information they trade on, I can see no reason insiders can not make an announcement of planned share dealings say at least 1 day and no more than 10 days before trading in shares of companies they are involved with.

[Beagle]

It feels like your disclaimer is getting longer by the day!

Does the FMA have any remedies before trying to raise a prosecution, for example, approaching the company to say that their security trading policy isn't robust enough? I feel like if there is a problem here then that would be more appropriate right now, especially since a successful prosecuton is probably quite difficult, as it should be.

That one was for reasons I am sure you can understand. The short answer is no. People either traded with inside information or they didn't. I think T.C. made a mistake signing off on those management sales immediately preceding the investor day briefing and I've made that point in a robust way. I have asked their general counsel to come back to me with their decision regarding whether they intend to amend their security trading policy for restricted persons going forward and have yet to receive a response. It might be time to formalise investor dissatisfaction with their lack of rigour in this matter through the appropriate channels.