AIR - Air NZ.

[Balance]

Judging from the Aussie news, it's not that good for air

http://www.smh.com.au/business/aviat...31-gp891y.html

Typical of the Aussie media and commentators.

Huge assumption on their part here that Air NZ has not commenced negotiations with an interested buyer and that SIA and Etihad are but side players!

Virgin's deal with the Chinese (with Branson looking for a way out) is but one move with a few more to come. The Chinese could find themselves locked in as minority shareholder but the greater game for them is to gain control.

Let the games BEGIN!

[Raz]

That was my initial thinking...any analysis is full of assumptions unless you are at the table....

[biker]

Beauty of the market - the Ozzie bears and the Kiwi bulls.

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/air-nzs...stake-b-189758

I think this is very true.

.......If Air New Zealand had handled itself differently it would have had a seat in negotiating the new strategic partner. Instead, Luxon's resignation meant the airline lost any rights to be consulted on the HNA investment and strategic alliance....

Is Luxon out of his depth in this arena? Just wondering.

[Raz]

I think this is very true.

.......If Air New Zealand had handled itself differently it would have had a seat in negotiating the new strategic partner. Instead, Luxon's resignation meant the airline lost any rights to be consulted on the HNA investment and strategic alliance....

Is Luxon out of his depth in this arena? Just wondering.

They got themselves in a corner before they made an announcement to disinvest....and then one consequence leads to another. The whole situation has been poor.

[Beagle]

Good morning AIR, what sort of mood are we in today?It's mixed, some articles are reporting good for AIR, some are reporting bad. All I know is I have some pretty tight stops in place so if they get triggered I will sit it out for a few days again.

Depends whether I remembered to take my bi-polar medication today of not You've got to be able to laugh at yourself sometimes.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11648296 Herald reporting it like its a done deal. Heads of Agreement only and I'd make a small bet, (guess, really I have no idea about Australian security or company legislation so am basing this guess purely on my modest knowledge of N.Z. companies law) a deal of that size would need ratification by special resolution of existing shareholders, I cannot be sure and thus this is only speculative, but if it requires 75% shareholder approval guess who has a blocking stake.

(Disc - Still holding, this post contains some pure guesswork on my part)

[bull....]

massive share dilution coming for air nz - stake will be worth less

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/worl...tners-with-hna

[Balance]

massive share dilution coming for air nz - stake will be worth less

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/worl...tners-with-hna

Assuming the capital raising goes ahead.

[Raz]

Depends whether I remembered to take my bi-polar medication today of not You've got to be able to laugh at yourself sometimes.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11648296 Herald reporting it like its a done deal. Heads of Agreement only and I'd make a small bet, (guess, really I have no idea about Australian security or company legislation so am basing this guess purely on my modest knowledge of N.Z. companies law) a deal of that size would need ratification by special resolution of existing shareholders, I cannot be sure and thus this is only speculative, but if it requires 75% shareholder approval guess who has a blocking stake.

(Disc - Still holding, this post contains some pure guesswork on my part)

Yes they have a few hurdles to overcome on the legal framework, its tougher generally in Australia legislation wise for a major transactions than here although any shareholder blocking would have to be careful given potential solvency, at least they don't have director responsibilities unless this is been in play for some time.

Would not want to leave the aussie regulatory framework enough room to have a go.

[Beagle]

Agree Raz, reporting on this has been pretty average, sometimes as thought its already a done deal. I am sure AIR's legal counsel and directors will be considering their options.

[Balance]

Agree Raz, reporting on this has been poor. Its a long way from being a done deal and I am sure AIR's legal counsel will have plenty of work in front of him.

My reading is that the Chinese has dealt themselves into the equation and is one of the interested buyers Branson alerted to.

Remember FPA? Haier bought in (cheap) first and then, paid up for full control.