Nigeria NGE ETF

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NGE has reached an interesting price point, prior to its imminent liquidation. Its Fund Manager has liquidated almost all its constituent holdings, and the resulting local currency cash Naira is to be converted sometime in the next 5 weeks into USD, for distribution to shareholders at NAV. NAV should range between $10-$11, if NGN:USD trades between 800-720 in the next 5 weeks.

That's an average 20% return in one month or so, should I buy around $8.80 last market close. Naira has been stabilizing since being unpegged from USD officially in June 2023. NGE has had a chequered career, and Nigeria has had capital controls, but the new guy Tinubu has initiated decisive reforms, including relaxing capital controls.

In any case, the current 20% discount to market close $8.8 should vanish as we near distribution date (expected 2 oct 2023). Looks like a relatively risk-free arbitrage opportunity to me.