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Holy hell that is amazing.
lol I bought some at 12c this morning.
I saw the HC post about cash generation.
It looks like gross margin per pearl will go roughly from $21 to $85 (accounting for a guess of inflation on COG per pearl of 4.5% - $16.8 to $17.6). That margin increase should more or less fall to the bottom line for the half year, as price driven.
They had 7.8m of cash. This 1H they should end the half with around 23m, plus or minus.
At 12cps that's a market cap of $51.3m. Less the cash of 23m, thats a mcap of $28m, or 3x FY23 NPAT. And this years NPAT will be substantially higher and multiple substantially lower. So even if this normalise, its a cash rich company that ought to be able to do some chunky things with its cash.
note these are all extreme back of the envelope / on the fly calcs.
not a big purchase and sort of a spur of the moment thing.
Last edited by Muse; 05-12-2023 at 12:28 PM.
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 Originally Posted by Muse
Holy hell that is amazing.
lol I bought some at 12c this morning.
I saw the HC post about cash generation.
It looks like gross margin per pearl will go roughly from $21 to $85 (accounting for a guess of inflation on COG per pearl of 4.5% - $16.8 to $17.6). That margin increase should more or less fall to the bottom line for the half year, as price driven.
They had 7.8m of cash. This 1H they should end the half with around 23m, plus or minus.
At 12cps that's a market cap of $51.3m. Less the cash of 23m, thats a mcap of $28m, or 3x FY23 NPAT. And this years NPAT will be substantially higher and multiple substantially lower. So even if this normalise, its a cash rich company that ought to be able to do some chunky things with its cash.
note these are all extreme back of the envelope / on the fly calcs.
not a big purchase and sort of a spur of the moment thing.
Welcome aboard.
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well done holders.
are these prices the new norm or is this a huge windfall gain for the company because pearls are the new flavor of the month in China?
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Originally Posted by Rawz
well done holders.
are these prices the new norm or is this a huge windfall gain for the company because pearls are the new flavor of the month in China?
Now that is the $64,000 question.
One month, 24 months,or 50 years.?
Reminds me 20 or 30 years people asked whether Savignon Blanc sales in UK were the new norm,or flavour of the month.
Guess people today are asking the same about Savignon Blanc sales in the US.
In time we will find out.
Must admit gold and diamonds have enjoyed a good run for centuries.
Last edited by percy; 05-12-2023 at 01:44 PM.
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Originally Posted by Rawz
well done holders.
are these prices the new norm or is this a huge windfall gain for the company because pearls are the new flavor of the month in China?
that's the first thing that pops into my mind. a reversion to mean and all that. commodity & biological risk.
But with ~ $20m of cash or more, the operations of the company (ie ex cash) at spot price are worth about 3x last years npat (not this years npat). price makes up for a lot of sins.
see how we go.
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From a link on HC.
Pearls are often reported as the oldest valuable gem known to humankind, and have been collected for at least
8,500 years (A
https://www.ssef.ch/wp-content/uploa...s-GemGuide.pdf
Last edited by percy; 05-12-2023 at 01:53 PM.
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Ended the day at 13 cents up a stunning 48%.
ATP Atlas Pearls Ltd 0.13 48% $37,652,715
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It's been a great ride and even at 13 cents the fundamentals look compelling (not to mention the time horizon for competitors to increase supply) but it's not going to grow to the sky.
ATP is not only a commodity producer, it's also dealing with biologicals. So I won't be in this one forever. The question is how much further does it have to run? I can crunch numbers and make a case for a share price north of 20 cents but have no real idea.
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Originally Posted by traineeinvestor
It's been a great ride and even at 13 cents the fundamentals look compelling (not to mention the time horizon for competitors to increase supply) but it's not going to grow to the sky.
ATP is not only a commodity producer, it's also dealing with biologicals. So I won't be in this one forever. The question is how much further does it have to run? I can crunch numbers and make a case for a share price north of 20 cents but have no real idea.
how long until the boys & girls filling their pockets with these pearly gems in Asia stop buying ?
Nice 3 going on 4 bagger for some already, but yes similar questions as you raise
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