IFT - Infratil

[winner69]

Hey BP - don't be so rough on IFT - tis theseason of goodwill

Over the 22 years since Infratil listed, compound after tax returns to shareholders has been 17.95% per annum. (infratil report)

Can't do much better than that

No reason why those sort of returns shouldn't continue ........esp seeing share price is down a bit of late.

[BlackPeter]

Hey BP - don't be so rough on IFT - tis theseason of goodwill

Over the 22 years since Infratil listed, compound after tax returns to shareholders has been 17.95% per annum. (infratil report)

Can't do much better than that

No reason why those sort of returns shouldn't continue ........esp seeing share price is down a bit of late.

OK - just to mark the season as well on this thread: Happy New Year and a Trump-free year to all people ...

Back to the subject ... I noticed that IFT had over the past years some outstanding returns due to buying cheap and selling dear (e.g. Z-Energy, the Australian Power broker (forgot their name) and some others.

However - at current they do hold from memory mainly some more defensive stocks which are hammered anyway by the market: MET (moving sidewards), TPW (moving sidewards), NZ Bus (never a winner anyway), Wellington airport (all airports appear IMHO currently fully priced - particularly with interest rates going up), a lease into Australian student accommodation (basically a bond) and, maybe more promising: a data centre for the Australian government. Anything substantial I forgot?

I don't see any of their holdings go broke (well, maybe NZ Bus and who knows what the next earthquake does to Wellington Airport) and think they will do fine long term, but just help me to see with this holding the opportunities for any outrageous short term gains in times of increasing interest rates? And they would need another outrageous one-off to justify a higher SP. Remember - past performance is no indicator for future performance;

As always - DYOR, and happy for people to hold whatever they think is best for them

[Bjauck]

...
However - at current they do hold from memory mainly some more defensive stocks which are hammered anyway by the market: MET (moving sidewards), TPW (moving sidewards), NZ Bus (never a winner anyway), Wellington airport (all airports appear IMHO currently fully priced - particularly with interest rates going up), a lease into Australian student accommodation (basically a bond) and, maybe more promising: a data centre for the Australian government. Anything substantial I forgot?...

You covered it.
A good summary:
https://infratil.com/2016-annual-rep...ls-businesses/

Last five years activity:
https://infratil.com/2016-annual-rep...ment-activity/

Around the time they were floated, I think LM said they aimed to provide a 17% pa return for investors! So they have met that so far...They were hammered during the GFC. They have had some serious non-performers in their portfolio. It must be time look around for the next star investment to boost the bedrock Trustpower work horse. Z and MET provided nice fillips in the past few years. Perhaps they could have held onto Z for a bit longer? I have to say IFT will stay in my bottom drawer for the time being - maybe an emotional attachment for me as it was one of my first investments.

[Harvey Specter]

Around the time they were floated, I think LM said they aimed to provide a 17% pa return for investors!

I thought it was 20% but you could be right.

[JeremyALD]

not even close ... technically still in a beautiful and uninterrupted downtrend. Ways beyond MA200, just scratched MA50 - and not even higher highs.

Sure - any trend change starts with a very weak signal (i.e. you never know), but this does not mean that every weak signal (touching of MA50 in a downtrend) means a trend change.

if you just look at the IFT fundamentals (like forward PE) - why would you think the fundamentals would justify a rising SP? If you look at IFT as investment fund (which it is) ... given its rather weak forward performance in a time of rising interest rates - why would you think that people want to buy into a forward PE of lousy 35 (equivalent to 3% return)? If you buy some of the IFT bonds you get twice the return ...

Don't get me wrong - I am sure there will be at some stage again a reason to buy into IFT, but I don't think it is now.

Discl: Don't hold (but some IFT bonds); Obviously - DYOR;

It pays a dividend of 5.5% at current levels and has a very good track record for stable returns.

I'm not expecting huge returns from this, but I'm happy to hold for the long term. They have good leadership and are focussed. Not the best reason to invest but I think it will do OK in the long term. Interestingly it was a big pick this year by brokers and by this forum. Looks undervalued to me.

[couta1]

It pays a dividend of 5.5% at current levels and has a very good track record for stable returns.

I'm not expecting huge returns from this, but I'm happy to hold for the long term. They have good leadership and are focussed. Not the best reason to invest but I think it will do OK in the long term. Interestingly it was a big pick this year by brokers and by this forum. Looks undervalued to me.

Certainly does and pays over 7% gross at current levels so none to shabby, too much TA navel gazing isn't always a good thing.

[Bjauck]

I thought it was 20% but you could be right.

I think you may be right....From their 2010 report: "Infratil’s goal is a 20% per annum after tax return to its shareholders through capital appreciation and dividends over the long term." (PDF File link ) https://infratil.com/assets/Uploads/PDF/ift_ar2010.pdf

They are falling a bit behind at the moment...still a happy holder though.

[BlackPeter]

Certainly does and pays over 7% gross at current levels so none to shabby, too much TA navel gazing isn't always a good thing.

couta, navel gazing is seldom useful ... analysis and reflection however is. I think you might have missed that the reason for IFT to drop is fundamental (as it is for most sustained downtrends). Just look at the high forward PE. Little earnings - high dividends - the high return you are talking about is not sustainable.

TA is just confirming this situation.

[macduffy]

couta, navel gazing is seldom useful ... analysis and reflection however is. I think you might have missed that the reason for IFT to drop is fundamental (as it is for most sustained downtrends). Just look at the high forward PE. Little earnings - high dividends - the high return you are talking about is not sustainable.

TA is just confirming this situation.

Or, rather, just confirming that that is "the market's" current view!

[Beagle]

I don't follow closely by my 2 cents worth is:-
It seems to me that recent attempts to add value haven't worked (Trustpower, selling Z too early)
It seems that they are up against it with their plans to expand the Wellington runway as AIR are dead against it and Jokestar pulling out of a route ex Wellington sends the wrong signal at a very awkward time
The Bus thing has been a flop
Investment in retirement villages is coming off the boil with concerns regarding vastly over inflated housing on both sides of the Tasman
Investment in Euro airports was a spectacular failure

In my view the market is marking them down for sound reasons. It feels like they've lost their way a bit since Lloyd Morrison passed away.
Technically they look absolutely terrible.

Never buy in a downtrend (KW).

Not for me but GLTAH