Comvita - CVT

[Balance]

My concern really pertains to the cautionary note by CVT on China - points to something deeper as downgrades come in threes.

Watching out for further downgrades.

Not a stock I would invest in now until the downgrade cycle reverse trend to upgrade.

[Beagle]

Interesting read https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/china...cle-title-like

More headwinds coming for China sales ?

[Apathy]

One other thought

If H117 is a loss (how much not stated) and FY17 going to be $17m that means H217 going to be (heaps?) more than $17m ......compared to say $8m in H216

Now that's super duper growth .....all back on track

No worries

One down grade at a time - the Fonterra model. Never put off until tomorrow what you can put off until the day after tomorrow.

The only way they will get close to that figure will be on the back of shipping massive amounts of stock to the new distributors - on very favourable terms. Filling the pipeline isn't the same as maintaining the pipeline (its the same as same store growth in retail companies) so watch for some ongoing volatility before things settle.

[winner69]

Bargain hunters out after lunch ....end of day was quite respectable

Blackmores have similar story - "July and August were challenging markets," the chief executive Christine Holgate told shareholders at Thursday's annual meeting. "September and October were better."

http://www.smh.com.au/business/retai...26-gsbofj.html

This China thing just a blip - getting back to normal pretty quickly

No worries

[kiwidollabill]

"This China thing just a blip - getting back to normal pretty quickly"

First it is lucrative...
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/indu...Chinese-market

Then there are these 'short term' set backs....
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/smal...-dip-in-volume

Then it is all over....
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farm...rmula-business

Playing devils advocate here but "those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it"

[Beagle]

Bargain hunters out after lunch ....end of day was quite respectable

Blackmores have similar story - "July and August were challenging markets," the chief executive Christine Holgate told shareholders at Thursday's annual meeting. "September and October were better."

http://www.smh.com.au/business/retai...26-gsbofj.html

This China thing just a blip - getting back to normal pretty quickly

No worries

Couple of important things to note. Blackmores are still making money with the downturn, CVT aren't at present. Blackmores were $220 in January, now $103, so a fall of over 50%.

A further thought I had today. We know last year they only made $1.3m in the last quarter where they shifted the balance date to 30 June 2016. They said this is traditionally a quiet quarter so lets assume next year's Q4 is also quiet and they make a similar result.
We know that the company expects to make a loss for the six months to 31 December 2016.
Are they really going to make circa $16m + whatever extra they need to make to cover first half loss...all in the first quarter of 2017 ? Is this really plausible ?

NBR reported they made 23 staff redundant if I remember correctly. Not a huge cull from 450 is it !

Rather than no worries W69, I'd say holders have a fair bit to be worried about.

[winner69]

Couple of important things to note. Blackmores are still making money with the downturn, CVT aren't at present. Blackmores were $220 in January, now $103, so a fall of over 50%.

A further thought I had today. We know last year they only made $1.8m in the last quarter where they shifted the balance date to 30 June.
We know that the company expects to make a loss for the six months to 31 December.
Are they really going to make circa $15m in the first quarter of 2017 ?

That $1.8m was one off favourable things - they reported operating npat for full 15 months was essentially the sames 12 months to March. Last 3 months was actually $0.1m loss

So 9 months of losing money then a 100% increase in H2

[Beagle]

WOW... this whole apparent concentration of the full years profit in the first quarter of 2017, lets just say it will be interesting to see if it pans out that way. Even if it does and clearly I have my doubts and believe the risk of another downgrade presents a clear danger to one's investment capital, that still leaves a decline in EPS due to the additional shares issued as part of the Chinese J.V. scheme.

People don't buy growth companies to see EPS declining !...just a blip according to the CEO who's been in the job for just over a year...the same man that told us a few months ago this whole Chinese regulatory thing wasn't impacting overall sales...Hmmmmmmmm...could easily do a Blackmores and halve if things don't work out according to Scott's vision in my opinion.

More likely to halve in the short run than double its SP that's for sure !

[Beagle]

Market seems to be "buying" the story that they can match last year's profit and to be frank I am a little surprised it hasn't fallen a lot further. I'm definitely sceptical, not holding until it breaks through 100 day MA to the upside and I suspect that won't be for quite a long time.

[macduffy]

From the Guardian. (Is it old news?)

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...oning-beatings