Comvita - CVT

[nomis]

[QUOTE=Ogg;683520]"China Resources Ng Fung" bought another large parcel. It's bounced strongly from the lows and guidance is now back to normal. I can see this returning back towards the highs in the medium term. This could be the next A2 Milk.

Lets hope so, I didn't quite hit the low but have a average buy of $6.90 now and am happy with that and will continue to hold/buy. I do expect in the mid term that CVT will be back around $10.

[BlackPeter]

[QUOTE=nomis;688545]

"China Resources Ng Fung" bought another large parcel. It's bounced strongly from the lows and guidance is now back to normal. I can see this returning back towards the highs in the medium term. This could be the next A2 Milk.

Lets hope so, I didn't quite hit the low but have a average buy of $6.90 now and am happy with that and will continue to hold/buy. I do expect in the mid term that CVT will be back around $10.

Interesting. Just had a quick look into the numbers. Even if I take the in my view quite optimistic analyst assumptions (I guess based on the data the company provides) do i see them with a forward PE of nearly 40 and a forward CAGR of less than 15%. I guess if we believe these numbers (I don't), than they are currently fully valued. What do you expect to improve from here (higher growth or higher earnings) so that one can justify a SP of $10?

[hardt]

Interesting. Just had a quick look into the numbers. Even if I take the in my view quite optimistic analyst assumptions (I guess based on the data the company provides) do i see them with a forward PE of nearly 40 and a forward CAGR of less than 15%. I guess if we believe these numbers (I don't), than they are currently fully valued. What do you expect to improve from here (higher growth or higher earnings) so that one can justify a SP of $10?

EPS is "predicted" to fully recover by FY18 ( 38-40cps )

And assumptions are that this was a one off year for Comvita as management can't avoid a weather nuke...

Only thing to worry about is the demand remaining for Comvita products after a leave of absence for so many of their products.

Could we not expect them to pick up where they left off ( even in a muted state )? - bar another catastrophic weather cycle for apiaries across the country.

[Joshuatree]

Setting up apiaries in Aus will derisk things as well.

[Beagle]

Plenty of other players in this sector e.g. these smart operators who've been in the business for 53 years who I will pay a visit too next week when down that way. https://www.hukahoneyhive.com/recipes.html Comvita have mad a complete dog's breakfast of previous forecasting so this hound wonders why anyone would believe their latest speculative earnings guess ? What they'll really make this year or next, your guess is as good as mine and probably at least as good as management's. Its perfectly obvious to me this cyclical agriculural producer deserves a PE rating commensurate with other cyclical agri stocks based on whatever guess you might want to make regarding normalized earnings.

[winner69]

jeez share price on fire of late

nearly 9 bucks again ....might even get back to those highs of 12 bucks plus

that be good

[Joshuatree]

"Senior chemistry lecturer Dr Peter Brooks from the University of the Sunshine Coast told the ABC the chemical profiles of New Zealand mānuka honey and Australian mānuka honey were almost indistinguishable"
Australia hits back in mānuka honey standoff

[dobby41]

[FONT="]"Senior chemistry lecturer Dr Peter Brooks from the University of the Sunshine Coast told the [/FONT][FONT="]ABC[/FONT][FONT="] the chemical profiles of New Zealand mānuka honey and Australian mānuka honey were almost indistinguishable"
[/FONT]Australia hits back in mānuka honey standoff

I thought Manuka was a Maori word - how can the Aussie plant be a Manuka?
Might be a Leptospermum but is it a Manuka? Get your own name Aussie.

[winner69]

Radio this morning ......bees loving the warm weather so bumper honey season

Good news for Commit a

Share price back to 10 bucks next year ....but the 12 bucks of a year or so ago a step too far?

[Balance]

Radio this morning ......bees loving the warm weather so bumper honey season

Good news for Commit a

Share price back to 10 bucks next year ....but the 12 bucks of a year or so ago a step too far?

Worthwhile assessing how the game has changed as over 100 now in the UMF space with the great equalizer to come - government imposed standard.

I was in one of the health shops over the weekend and stunned by the number of brands now with UMF.

Comvita was sitting forlornly in the corner, competitors being 10% to 15% cheaper.

Interesting times ahead.