TENON

[Lizard]

Thanks scamper. Although I wouldn't foresee it running too far away until there is some indication on the next result. There will probably be another opportunity to accumulate on a pullback before FY, although with low liquidity, it's always harder to gauge these things.

[Lizard]

I see the dispute between CNIFP receivers and IRD re GST paid has been heard recently in the High Court - not sure how long it is likely to take for an initial decision, but interesting to watch given the vested interest Tenon holds in the outcome. High stakes, long odds...

More certain news is that the forex pressure is reducing for TEN, lumber prices remain high and the Home Depot report suggests improved sales for the March qtr in mill work. Share price holding up at 95cps, despite market weakness.

[Lizard]

Something set off a/the TEN buyer(s) today - pity, because I finally found a few spare $NZ to bid for a few more, but was well and truly beaten to the offer and reluctantly returned the petty cash to my husband's wallet...

Is the CNIFP decision due back in court?

Or maybe one other buyer turned up for TEN? Crikey!

[percy]

RBC down,TEN up??

[Lizard]

Result out and we have a Profit... albeit small, but who's arguing?

Revenue up, despite forex and US housing... (competitor Chilean mills out of action after earthquake, but hey!).

Normalised for a FY, it's around a $5m profit...which is not too bad on a $66m market cap when you're selling kitsch timber mouldings in the close-as-US-can-get-to-a depression.

Full credit... I think they are doing well, but this remains only a contrarian buy for a little longer....

[Lizard]

Has been a long trip sideways for TEN sp over past year. Could be worth watching over the next week to see if it can find the energy to break trading range. Bit more volume of late (still small though) and back to top of trading range.

Curiously, this year we have an early RBC agm (this week) - in past years it has normally fallen a day or two after the TEN agm and presented almost identical information on TEN. So, despite no agm date for TEN itself, there should be some update at the RBC agm this Friday. Perhaps the chronological separation of the agms will turn out to be symbolic of a deeper separation?

Critical info for TEN probably centres on sales volumes in the US (mild improvements in housing numbers may help), exchange rates (not good, but possible they have taken out further hedging) and possibilities for sales into other markets (progress with Lowes into Australia could be good). Even a small improvement in outlook could be significant for TEN given the minimal margin at present.

[zigzag]

I thought the TEN meeting was in Wellington on Thursday, the day before RBC. The shareprice could be firming ahead of the meeting, but I think the high NZ dollar could be a bit of a killer at the moment.

[Lizard]

Thanks zigzag - I'd presumed that the date would have been on the NZX announcements and/or on the NZX or Forbar list of diary dates - especially since RBC is on there. But you are right - I went to the Tenon site and the notice of meeting is on there, so we get an earlier than usual ASM on 4 Nov in Wgtn.

If only I had read my mail - I automatically bin agm notices, presuming them to be in either Auckland, Christchurch or some other country. i might actually have been able to get to my first ever AGM if I'd kept the invite!

[percy]

Thanks zigzag - I'd presumed that the date would have been on the NZX announcements and/or on the NZX or Forbar list of diary dates - especially since RBC is on there. But you are right - I went to the Tenon site and the notice of meeting is on there, so we get an earlier than usual ASM on 4 Nov in Wgtn.

If only I had read my mail - I automatically bin agm notices, presuming them to be in either Auckland, Christchurch or some other country. i might actually have been able to get to my first ever AGM if I'd kept the invite!

You do not need your invite.Just present yourself at the AGM.They will have a desk where you register.Just give your name,and they will tick you off the shareholders list and give you a voting paper.Do not ask questions at the meeting.Save them until after the meeting.Ask the CFO or MD or the chairman.If they do not want to answer you just tell them you will ask them and a few more at the next AGM.!!!!You will find most Directors try to look as though they are talking to shareholders.Looks good.you job is to help them!!!!Enjoy yourself and we look forward to you full and frank report of the AGM.

[Lizard]

Hi percy,

Thanks for the advice. Unfortunately, was not able to squeeze it in to the schedule. Reading through, it is disappointing to hear they've found the current half even worse than pcp, as had hoped they might be on a slight up. However, the Chairman's speech remains remarkably chirpy and upbeat despite this, with talk of considering dividends in 2011. All seems a little premature given the current pressures would presumably have them in a loss-making position. Even the optimistic "LIRA" chart (taken from here) won't stop the currency pain.

I'm not sure they should be too focussed on those LIRA reports - while the latest one is titled "Stronger Growth for Remodeling Projected for 2011", the 4th Qtr 2009 report was titled "Indicator Suggests Remodeling Upturn in 2010", so it could be a moving target. Though to be fair, if there is an inconsistency in the reporting, it is more due to the March and June quarters being stronger than predicted.

No more talk of sales into other markets (something it might have been worth asking directors about over a cup of tea after the meeting).