ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[Leftfield]

You call them savvy sellers, I call them panic sellers and over on hotcopper they call them dumb sellers, the question is which description is correct? Looks like panic to me when the stock sales are going in the opposite direction to the sales of the company in the trading halt, perhaps the hotcopper description is correct after all.

Agree Couta, this article from the SMH claims that BAL's losses are ATM's gains.

[couta1]

I sold the last of my ATM at 2.44. No panic, and I don't consider it dumb.
Simply a matter of a company getting over-bought and over capitalised.
There remains the option now, with the price falling through $2.21, to buy back in and end up with 10% more shares or remain out of the market risk free - upside and downside, all the way back to 2.44.
Panic? Stupid? To my simple mind it just makes sense.

Well done, I'm only referring to the selling since Bal was put in a trading halt, after all if that wasn't occuring the price wouldn't be at $2.21, irrational selling would be selling for that reason only which is clearly the case IMO.

[sb9]

Well done, I'm only referring to the selling since Bal was put in a trading halt, after all if that wasn't occuring the price wouldn't be at $2.21, irrational selling would be selling for that reason only which is clearly the case IMO.

With all great numbers behind them if this is what A2 sp is treated while BAL in is in TH, wonder what might happen to their sp once the announcement is out.

And as they say a good report does not need 2 trading days to announce, just that they're trying to dress up the best they could or have been asked by ASX to come up with more detailed explanation. In any which case, doesn't look bright for BAL and unfortunately being in the same sector and a competitor A2 will've to bear the brunt in the short term.

Just to refresh everyone's memory A2 came out with trading update/upgrade on 18th Dec last year after their ASM update in Nov and I'm hopeful there'll be one coming out next week which will be after BAL's drama is over...

[sb9]

Well, there we've it.

BAL should've come out with an announcement before trading commenced today on ASX and guess what nothing came out and they're suspended from trading until 21st Dec or before any news out from them, what shambles.... EPIC FAIL on Board and Management Part!!!

[winner69]

Well, there we've it.

BAL should've come out with an announcement before trading commenced today on ASX and guess what nothing came out and they're suspended from trading until 21st Dec or before any news out from them, what shambles.... EPIC FAIL on Board and Management Part!!!

EPIC FAIL ......but indicates that things are really worse than indicated (financially that is)

Obviously beyond the 'clarification' of previous 'guidance'

A2M the winners

[carrom74]

EPIC FAIL ......but indicates that things are really worse than indicated (financially that is)

Obviously beyond the 'clarification' of previous 'guidance'

A2M the winners

The Panic Slide will begin shortly....It can only be arrested if ATM comes out with some kind of re assurance...

[stevevai1983]

Just give your guys some update about china market.

My baby is 4 month old, so my wife joined a quite big online young mother group to learn and share experiences.
In the past 6 month there was very strong trend that suddenly lots of people start to buy A2 infant formula.
In china, the middle class is raising, our logic for baby is : price doesn't matter at all, we just want the best product. So it's not a price sensitive market.
Generally infant formula sells at price range of 160~220RMB but A2 is 250~260RMB. so it's the most expensive infant formula out there.
The really high price is actually helping A2 to establish a best quality "premium product" reputation.
The other thing is some of the young mothers are buying product from daigou. They will listen to daigou's recommendation, A2 has high profit margin for daigou so they always recommend A2 first..
China is a huge market and recently government allowed second baby policy which is extremely important for infant formula.

Now let's talk about some bad side:
The favorable product can change fast, daigou's recommendation can change fast too. The competition is very high.
A2's stock valuation is very rich as well, trading at 52PE. So even if A2 manage to double to profit this year, it will be still 26PE, quite high compare to NZX average.
So A2 needs to continue to grow at least 25% in 2018 and afterwards (the base value s much higher at that time)

[couta1]

The Panic Slide will begin shortly....It can only be arrested if ATM comes out with some kind of re assurance...

Might get an update before Christmas. I've learnt the hard way that you should never sell this stock based on fleeting sentiment or recommendations from brokers or others for that matter, have sold parcels for a loss previously and have also sold parcels way too early and missed out on some very big gains. Best just to focus on what they have acheived to date and the fact that they are taking market share off their competitors and what that means for the future, everything else is just noise and should be ignored IMO.

[JeremyALD]

Might get an update before Christmas. I've learnt the hard way that you should never sell this stock based on fleeting sentiment or recommendations from brokers or others for that matter, have sold parcels for a loss previously and have also sold parcels way too early and missed out on some very big gains. Best just to focus on what they have acheived to date and the fact that they are taking market share off their competitors and what that means for the future, everything else is just noise and should be ignored IMO.

Completely agree this share bounces around like a YoYo. It's not unusual to see 5% gains or 5% losses on any given day. I made the mistake of selling this way too cheap and then it significantly bouncing.

I would say with this share don't buy on a high because it appears to drop before going back up again.

[Leftfield]

Sensed a bit of a turnaround in sentiment for ATM today (over $4mill shares traded) so have topped up with another 10k.

News of a proposed $200 mill investment into additional A2 milk production in the North Island has got to be good news for this niche market in the long term. Here's the report.

DYOR. Disc. Happy holder.