Contact Energy - CEN Chart

[sb9]

Can someone give me a bit more knowledge and education around reading operational data? and what the factors mean etc?

The key metric I look at is Customer data as detailed on last page of the report. Looks like they've gained few customers compared to last months however still way short of last year same month number.

[troyvdh]

Fairly impressive day....nearly $25 million dollars...believe a good return can be made from here...and like wise $25 million dollars believe not...just saying...

[Jantar]

Can someone give me a bit more knowledge and education around reading operational data? and what the factors mean etc?

The key metric I look at is Customer data as detailed on last page of the report. Looks like they've gained few customers compared to last months however still way short of last year same month number.

The main points I look for are the Netback in $/MW as this is the company's income from energy sold, and the cost of generation as that is what the energy actually costs. The bigger the difference the better

[fish]

The main points I look for are the Netback in $/MW as this is the company's income from energy sold, and the cost of generation as that is what the energy actually costs. The bigger the difference the better

I wish I had read this post Jantar before selling a portion of my CEN last week.
Looks like over the past 10 months netback is up 5% and the cost of energy is down 15% .

[Snoopy]

The main points I look for are the Netback in $/MW as this is the company's income from energy sold, and the cost of generation as that is what the energy actually costs. The bigger the difference the better.

I noticed on 'the comparative' that energy line losses were listed at 11% for April 2015, verses only 3% for April 2016. That is a huge difference. Contact's renewable energy is largely generated at Roxburgh and Clyde. So does that mean that last year a lot more of Contact's self generated energy was sent to the North Island, thus incurring larger line losses for the company? Or is that explanation too simplistic?

SNOOPY

[BlackPeter]

monthly ops: https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/237601.pdf

Lots of storage and reduced demand (May temperatures more than 2 degree over the long term average). Good time for consumers, but the Gentailers (not just CEN) might keep dropping?

Discl: reduced my holding;

[Joshuatree]

Thanks for sharing BP thats really pertinent stuff ;have done the same, cheers JT

[Jantar]

I noticed on 'the comparative' that energy line losses were listed at 11% for April 2015, verses only 3% for April 2016. That is a huge difference. Contacts renewable energy is largely generated at Roxburgh and Clyde. So does that mean that last year a lot more of Contacts self generated energy was sent to the North Island, thus incurring larger line losses for the company? Or is that explanation too simplistic?

SNOOPY

There is a product in the NZEM called Financial Transmission Rights (FTRs) that allows a company to hedge against transmission losses. My take on this is that Contact bought the right amount of FTRs to meet their needs.

[BlackPeter]

Hmm ... just looking at the chart and wondering - is this going to higher highs - or turning into a head and shoulders pattern? Given the current bullish mood can't I really imagine the latter (unless the next world wide tragedy starts to unfold), but given the fundamentals (lots of hydro capacity and so far rather low power consumption this winter, though the current cold spell might improve at least July numbers a bit) do I doubt significant rises from here as well.

Most likely in my view to stay at this stage range bound somewhere between $5 and $5.50. Probably just one of these "wait and see's". I guess the 5% divie is not bad looking at the price, but not outstanding either and given the chances for the SP to further fall back (give another couple of warm months), not my share of choice - well, not for now.

[fish]

monthly ops: https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/237601.pdf

Lots of storage and reduced demand (May temperatures more than 2 degree over the long term average). Good time for consumers, but the Gentailers (not just CEN) might keep dropping?

Discl: reduced my holding;

What did you think of todays monthly ops?
I also reduced my holding recently but am reconsidering.
Netback looks good.
Slight increase in customer numbers
Annual report out soon-I think it will point out reduced demand due to 2 degree increase in winter temperatures but profit should be increasing due to lower costs.
?increase in dividends