Contact Energy - CEN Chart

[Snoopy]

This is nuts...check out 5 yr charts.

From today's press release:

"Contact has secured 4.5PJ of gas for this winter and access to new Maui gas until the end of 2024 as the field is progressively invested in. Our perspective is that gas is getting more expensive and less reliable at a time when it’s facing increased competition from renewables. To maintain its share of energy production it should be doing the opposite. This unreliability has also impacted our ability to call on energy under a long-standing insurance product which has significantly devalued its future worth. On a more positive note the Ahuroa Gas Storage facility expansion is progressing well with completion expected in early 2020 and we understand there is a long term contract with another user imminent.

The increased price and reducing reliability of gas is accelerating the case for the long-term economic substitution of thermal plant with new baseload geothermal."

Those bold bits sound bad!

"After successfully lowering the cost of geothermal since our last build, we are taking the next step in developing the geothermal project we have consented at Tauhara by committing to drill a series of four appraisal wells. In gas equivalent terms Tauhara is a 20PJ per annum resource, and that’s just the currently consented portion. The drilling will lay the groundwork for a final investment decision for a new power station in early 2020. The results of the drilling will further define the extent of the reservoir and its characteristics and confirm our initial assessment that along with steam turbine technology cost improvements Tauhara is New Zealand’s lowest cost new generation build."

But a solution is at hand?

SNOOPY

[macduffy]

We shouldn't be surprised about the "increased price and reduced reliability of gas". Isn't this what current govt policy aims to achieve?

[stealthmaster]

ASB economists say the latest gloomy business confidence survey means the Reserve Bank will need to cut interest rates two more times this year- with a cut in August now "a done deal."
"With economic momentum continuing to slow, we now expect the RBNZ will cut the OCR twice more, in August and November, bringing the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 1 per cent," ASB economist Jane Turner said.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ljw8wGfOPUy6Fo

Looking like 2 further rate cuts, expect to see continued rises in CEN, MEL, GNE, MCY, TPW

[Winston001]

Just a thought. I live in Central Otago and so far this year, the snowfall is light. Very light.

The primary base for Contact is hydro dams and right now I'm wondering if there will be a lean year. Shallow lakes and not much generation.

Any thoughts?

[whatsup]

Just a thought. I live in Central Otago and so far this year, the snowfall is light. Very light.

The primary base for Contact is hydro dams and right now I'm wondering if there will be a lean year. Shallow lakes and not much generation.

Any thoughts?

IMO this will ply havoc with the spot market later on this year.

[Jantar]

Just a thought. I live in Central Otago and so far this year, the snowfall is light. Very light.

The primary base for Contact is hydro dams and right now I'm wondering if there will be a lean year. Shallow lakes and not much generation.

Any thoughts?

The snow pack is around 70% of normal for this time of year, but there are still 2 months left in the snow accumulation season.

Hydro is around a third of Contact's portfolio, Geothermal around a third and Thermal around a third. So a good mix overall.

[stealthmaster]

big increases today!

[Beagle]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...910/305078.pdf

Very strong result and targeting the same 39 cps annual divvy payout next year.
Dividends are imputed to 65% so the maths looks like this, 28% corporate rate x 65% = effective imputation rate of 18.2%.
39 / 0.818 = 47.68 cps gross per annum. On $8.30 that gives a gross yield of 5.75% and presently trades cum the final 23 cps divvy.
On the theoretical ex divvy price of approx. $8.07, 47.68 cps gives a gross yield that appears to be sustainable of 5.94%.

Not too shabby at all for a safe gentailier.

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/9...ngs-up-12.html

[iceman]

Only read the highlights so far but not much there not to like. Operating and capital expenditure down and now well under control and the all important operating free cashflow up to a cool $ 341 mill, up 13%. FY divie up 20%.
As you say Beagle, nothing wrong with these boring old Gentailers

[Jantar]

Only read the highlights so far but not much there not to like. ...

Looks like the market doesn't like the result. The best result from CEN in years sees the SP drop 9 c so far. The way that it increased so rapidly over the previous week does suggest that there may have been sufficient insider trading to see that the result was fully built into the price prior to the announcement.