Nickel - Major Correction, where to next ?

[SEC]

I sort of regret buying MCR ahead of IGO at the start of the year. MCR has gone nowhere and IGO up 25%. Right metal, wrong company. MCR looks likely to reap $15.1M from options conversion (up from $13.2M) now that Skafell has bid $1.35 for TYC, but it's been ignored by the market.

SEC

[wns]

quote:Originally posted by SEC

I sort of regret buying MCR ahead of IGO at the start of the year. MCR has gone nowhere and IGO up 25%. Right metal, wrong company. MCR looks likely to reap $15.1M from options conversion (up from $13.2M) now that Skafell has bid $1.35 for TYC, but it's been ignored by the market.

SEC

It must be the wns factor SEC! [] Namely that I bought some!

So if they made another $10m npat for the second half from core business and we add in $10.57m for the options ($15.1m x 0.7), that would make npat of $30.55m or EPS of 15.7c based on 194.7m shares. On a PE of 6 that would put the share price at 94c which is 40% higher than today's close at 67c.

At a quick glance a while back I concluded that MCR and IGO are the best of the nickel companies, in terms of profitability.

[tricha]

Well what can you say, what ever stock you had here, you could not lose.

With the Nickel price racing above $23,000 a ton OZ, now the market is calling a shortfall of nickel for 2006, wow, it's on fire, LME starting to retreat at a quicker pace.

MCR still being the dog of the field [^], in price only, but I ain't complaining. Reckoning due in a couple of weeks, my bet Mincor,s profit for the quarter will be around 10 million, as much as the 1st half profit.

What they do with the 16 million cash from TYC, who knows, just icing on the cake.[]

Cheers [B)][}]

[nelehdine]

Hi SEC, I looked at MCR vs IGO last Monday .... chose IGO and bgt at 194.5 , closed at 237 yesterday. Prefered management and also they have a very juicy 30% free carried stake in a gold JV with AngloAshanti which might be huge over the next 5 years. Some low nickel hedges roll off this month and the new ones ( approx 35% of monthly production ) kick in at A$18,000t which should give P&L a healthy boost. Fundamentally nickel looks a great place to be over the next few years. IGO provide the best exposue on the Aussie market IMHO

[JBmurc]

IMO MCR will outperform IGO in the short term
plus give a better divi-
AGM- also looks good to outperform in the sector


come may we will see who,s right

[tricha]

Have u got some nickel[?][?][?] $30,000 a ton OZ and rising.

Nickel rises $900 as strike looms

Nickel is used to make stainless steel
The price of nickel has shot up by $900, hitting $22,900 a tonne, on news that union members of Canadian mining firm Inco could strike.
The increase amounts to a 4% rise on Thursday's close.

The United Steelworkers union said contract talk at the firm's Sudbury operations had come to a standstill.

Workers have until 31 May to reach an agreement, but the union must reach an agreement by midnight on Friday to give members time to vote on a new contract.

Ready to strike

"We have less than 24 hours to go and we are nowhere near a collective agreement," said Wayne Fraser, a representative with the United Steelworkers union.

We have notified our members that they ought to be getting ready for a strike

Wayne Fraser, United Steelworkers

The current three-year contract comes to an end on 31 May.

"We have notified our members that they ought to be getting ready for a strike," Mr Fraser said.

The union represents about 3,100 workers at Inco's Sudbury operations.

The strike comes amid moves to consolidate the industry.

Inco has been in the running to acquire Canada's Falconbridge but Swiss mining group Xstrata recently entered the race, offering a higher bid.

Supplies of nickel, which is used in the production of stainless steel, have become increasingly tight.

Inventories of nickel on the London Metal Exchange hit their lowest level since October 2005 on Friday, falling 246 tonnes to 18,432 tonnes.

[kline]

I have recently found a junior Ni explorer(Metallica minerals-MLM)which has pretty good financial support from Kagara Zn and also from an US Capital Fund.
Its main project is a Heap Leach Nickel exploration(still in the testing phase)but they said this exploration Ni laterite Inferred Resource is approx 161,ooo t of contained Ni metal
At the current Ni price, once thy've got the production going, it will be, in my opinion, at least a 3-4 bagger.
However, the market's been so flimsy lately, that the speculative stocks like this one, don't stand much ground.
...but I still think that's worth the risk...current price 25c and the US fund got in at 25c too
Any opinions on this one...?

[tricha]

Well it's like this Kline - but I still think that's worth the risk...current price 25c and the US fund got in at 25c too

You answered your own qustion - I still think that's worth the risk.

And who knows, you could be onto a winner []

Myself personally, I've got enough risk, although I do not see Mincor as a risk, except as far the nickel price is concerned.

No debt, money in the bank, huge cash flow, top management, excellent dividend and still relatively cheap.
IGO, JBM basically the same, whereas SMY, WSA, BRW, AGM, FXR are higher risk.

Cheers not so [B)][}]

[Dazza]

so peeps IGO or MCR?

JBM is way bigger man :P

IGO if iron is good could be $5 a share

MCR mine life is going to die soon, r they exploring at the moment?

[tricha]

Hi Dazza

Mincor
You must be reading a different book to me regarding MCR's mine life, if u would like to read the last presentation from MCR, u might pick up their existing mines(except Wannaway), have ore extensions open in every which way direction.
Also high chance of huge extension to Carnilya Hill, where drilling is underway at the moment.
Actually expecting a 10,000 ton reserve upgrade soon.

Independence Group
As far as IGO goes, yes $5 a share is possible, especially with their gold tenants finding excellent gold. Iron ore, bit of a side issue, I do not think they are really interested in it, might be a bonus though.

And yes they hold huge Nickel extensions which are being drilled and quantifed right now.

A better day for all Nickel shares today, let that strike rumble!