ALF - Allied Farmers Limited

[percy]

To be postitioned alongside "The Percer" is something of an achievement!

Stay close Jonu,you are safe with me.!!!...lol.
With Vaygor1 and Forest leading the way, were are on the right path.

[Lewylewylewy]

I did think of you when I read the news today, Percy. You always manage to find a successful obscure one each year. Last year was AWK. This year might be two, with AWF

[Vaygor1]

Stay close Jonu,you are safe with me.!!!...lol.
With Vaygor1 and Forest leading the way, were are on the right path.

Well positioned indeed :-))

I was in Hastings last week and stopped in at the Stock Sales Yards there to see LI Redshaw in action.
ALF owns 34% of LI Redshaw (via ALF's subsidiaries) and this ownership will climb to 51% on 1-July this year.. the 1st day of ALF's next financial year.
Had a chat with a couple of the auctioneers during and afterwards. Prices on the day and of recent times have been VERY strong, as was sales volumes.

This, along with discussions I held with others of significant livestock experience at the Auckland ST meeting in March lead me to believe that the current H2 for ALF (and for the livestock sales industry in general) will be very positive indeed.

I don't consider myself a gambler in the slightest, however I would be willing to wager that a 1/2 cent dividend payout by ALF around Aug-Sept 2017 will be forthcoming because I think the free-cashflow will be there... I guess I will have to eat my hat if I'm wrong.

Following some weeks of deliberation, I consider the wording in ALF's FY guidance (issued on 27-Feb this year), regarding H2 recovery, to be about as positive a statement any board can commit to five months out, when the vast majority of the H2 income stream is still 3-4 months away... even if forward-contracts are significantly ahead (as ALF put it).

As a matter of fact, I think the fundamental basis behind the slightly negative (and expected) H1 result to 31-Dec-2016 will be the same fundamental driving what I think will be a great H2 result.

Note: ALF's Directors exercised their outstanding rights today as well. Another good sign.

[percy]

Vaygor1.
Thanks for sharing your research and update.

[blackcap]

well done for pushing the market up 7% today Vaygor No just joking. But thanks for the insights. Appreciated.

[Vaygor1]

well done for pushing the market up 7% today Vaygor No just joking. But thanks for the insights. Appreciated.

Thanks for the post Blackcap

The announcement concerning the potential income via the Property Ventures litigation has caused a bit of a stir and corresponding rise in the SP. I am a tiny bit surprised the announcement wasn't deemed to be price-sensitive by the NZX.

NZX announcement on 5-April-2017 here:
https://www.nzx.com/companies/ALF/announcements/299478

... and NBR wrote an article yesterday about it here:
https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/allied...comment-749010

[SilverBack]

Thanks for the post Blackcap

The announcement concerning the potential income via the Property Ventures litigation has caused a bit of a stir and corresponding rise in the SP. I am a tiny bit surprised the announcement wasn't deemed to be price-sensitive by the NZX.

NZX announcement on 5-April-2017 here:
https://www.nzx.com/companies/ALF/announcements/299478

... and NBR wrote an article yesterday about it here:
https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/allied...comment-749010

Too many ifs and maybes in the litigation for it to be regarded as a reality. Caveat emptor when it comes to litigation because everyside always thinks it is going to win.

[Vaygor1]

Too many ifs and maybes in the litigation for it to be regarded as a reality. Caveat emptor when it comes to litigation because everyside always thinks it is going to win.

True, however the litigation is a reality. It is the outcome that is still up in the air. There has been silence on this issue for 4 years now. PwC will be following the instructions from their insurers, otherwise no insurance payout to them if they lose the case. I do not think it is in the current ALF Board's nature to make announcements like this unless they really felt it was necessary.

[Lola]

Too many ifs and maybes in the litigation for it to be regarded as a reality. Caveat emptor when it comes to litigation because everyside always thinks it is going to win.

Perhaps, but the score now (as determined by THREE seperate courts) is 3 nil against PwC and others. QBE and Vero will be well aware of that. The question will be settle for say $200 m or whatever and move on, or risk going down 4 nil and suffer the consequences. What would you do Silverback?

[SilverBack]

Perhaps, but the score now (as determined by THREE seperate courts) is 3 nil against PwC and others. QBE and Vero will be well aware of that. The question will be settle for say $200 m or whatever and move on, or risk going down 4 nil and suffer the consequences. What would you do Silverback?

I was actually commenting on why the announcement was not deemed to be price sensitive and not making any assessment about the outcome. I have learned over the years not to be over confident in relation to litigation even when there seem to be convincing arguments for success. However, an out of court settlement would not be a surprise. The amount of any settlement is the question.