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  1. #191
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    KJ .... there is that old axiom (and quite a lot of research over the years to support it) that a portfolio of high PE shares (also apllies to markets) tend to lead to lower than average future long term returns over the next 5-10 years

    When Carmel started buying these shares they were much more modestly valued than they are now

    Some of the stocks they have in Oz are similarly valued (like CCP which is starting to have huge expectations built into it)

    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  2. #192
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    quote:Originally posted by KJ

    quote:Originally posted by Treetops

    The fear is gone for now. Lets hope it happens again and we can profit once more from the ignorance of others. Warrants still lagging but creeping up. The bargains are nearly gone.
    Not sure whether it is ignorance or caution.
    When you look at KFL, 67% of its investments are tied up in RYM,MFT,MET,PPL,& RAK with approx PE's of 30,20,24,24,& 53 respectively.



    Sure, forward PE is what is important so a rough stab:
    RYM-20% profit growth so PE reduces to say 24-still quite high.
    MFT-maybe similar so a f'ward PE of 16
    MET-20% profit growth so F'ward PE of 19.
    PPL-maybe no growth so f'ward PE of 24
    RAK-hard to predict with US dollar but requires a couple of yrs of doubling NPAT.

    To be honest I got out a little while back and would not look to get back in. NAV is back to where it was at beginning of January and the Warrants have only 9 mths to run.
    KJ
    You don't think you take into account the diluted NAV is not the headline NAV quoted. (2.06 in Jan and now.) I think that is one reason some punters sold recently. The diluted NAV takes into account the warrants anyway. The diluted NAV is currently around 1.61-1.62 and was 1.56 in Jan and a 3.5 cents div has been just paid which was paid at 1.52 for Div reinvestment. So would be 1.65-1.66 including the div.

    The ASB Sec research quote the forward 2008 PE's as
    RYM 22.9
    MFT 13.5
    Met -
    Fre 15.5
    Rak 32.6
    MHI 16.0
    PPL 18.4
    I have no idea how accurate they are compared to your figures but the management of these companies is pretty good.
    PPL is probably behind MHI in % now and not as significant. I guess the currency has stunted KFL in respect of MFT FRE RAK MHI and PPL just as FPH is currently low. It's bound to drop sooner or later and improve the dil NAV. so I'm prepared to wait as 6.5% increase in 5mths is OK for me in a diversified managed share.
    When I bought into KFL I liked each of the individual shares but didn't have the confidence to back them individually. Hence my caution is to diversify my risk. Say I had backed just PPL and FPH and GPG. I would have been down considerably. I leave that to Carmel to earn her fees so I don't have to worry. I agree its not for experienced investors with the time and money. They avoid the fees and can get better trades than KFL and plan their exits with all the charting facilities at their disposal. While punters still can't figure out KFL's true worth as the brokers don't push it as far as I know I continue to have a little advantage. I buy when the discount is high. I'm not a trader but the price has fluctuated between 1.63 and 1.49 and back to 1.59! all for very little change in dil. NAV. Many punters have focussed exclusively on PPL and RAK. My current explanation is fear of short term falls and ignorance of the dil. NAV's importance compared to headline NAV reported.

    It could be that cautious investors are simply getting out because they know more than me. Time will tell who is right.
    Perhaps Phaedrus or another TA could run his indicators over KFL and see if I should be out. OBV seems OK. I couldn't explain the recent fall so took it as an opportunity to top up based on my knowledge of predicting the dil. NAV with my spreadsheet.

    I also told sharetrader what I was doing so if you have some better punts let us know too!
    Disc: KFL KFLWA BRM and BRMWA are currently the major shares in my portfolio

  3. #193
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    Treetops
    I do understand diluted NAV-all I was trying to do was give you another perspective and hence my comments about the importance of sentiment and forward PE's.I was not giving an opinion on whether you are right or wrong as I do not know.You seem to be saying that others are ignorant if they see things differently from you.You may be correct.

    Do you consider high forward PE's a bit of a warning?
    I agree that the shares that I referred to are high quality stocks but they are now quite highly valued.

    You ask for my punts-my main investments currently are: ABA,DGL,DFH,IFT,IFTWC,TWR,& BRMWA.
    Recently sold RYM (in 250-260 range) (Look to re-enter at 200)
    Recently bought DPC (av 185)as a recovery punt

  4. #194
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    KJ
    Point taken. The PE's of those I quoted are all reducing into a more normal zone but you are right it is a warning they are shares with a higher potential for growth and a higher potential to fall if that growth is not achieved. FF gives me the confidence that the management is good and the likelihood is less. All shares have a risk to reward ratio. A classic example is SLG today. As part of KFL its pretty insignificant but owning directly a 5% fall. I diversify my risk in KFL If I buy when the discount is large I have a buffer.

    I have noticed a correlation between the headline NAV affecting the price more than the diluted NAV as it has when warrants have been bought back. I should use the word irrational rather than ignorant and was referring to the market. The market does what it wants. If this causes the discount to widen it creates buying opportunities for the brave.
    You clearly trade more whereas I accumulate at a discount and hold. The currency is clearly unpredictable at present so I expect more volatility in KFL and a bigger discount could open probably around 2-4% The KFL shares are often fully valued but this has always been the case and has never stopped them rising particularly in Ryman's case. The rate of growth will slow and eventually Carmel will bring in new blood like RAK and DGL.
    We hold some shares in common. I like ABA and BRMWA. IFT I follow but hold TPW directly. I have GPG so sold TWR. Know nothing about DFH and DPC. Thanks for the comments.

  5. #195
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    Many of the kingfisher stocks now looking either very toppy or already in decline.
    Ryman is fully priced, pumpkin patch overpriced and the others too look fairly stretched. The market in general looking weak , some of the magic is wearing off.

  6. #196
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    Agreed that many are already in a downtrend but that is nearly a month old. The market has fairly priced it for now but as I got out of two thirds of my holding at 1.60 I'm happy to hold now. The surprising thing is it is predictable. The warrants lead the way. The Nav hasn't dropped as much as you think of course. Both Rym and Mft are dam good long term shares and PT would differ with you on Rym on another thread? Still bargains for the brave if you can calc the NAV and determine long term value.

  7. #197
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    7% to disc to dil. NAV

    Wonder what FF will do with its KID money. Will buy something else in advance as per last takeover WAM. Any thoughts fellow ST's?
    Perhaps a special DIV?

  8. #198
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Treetops View Post
    Agreed that many are already in a downtrend but that is nearly a month old. The market has fairly priced it for now but as I got out of two thirds of my holding at 1.60 I'm happy to hold now. The surprising thing is it is predictable. The warrants lead the way. The Nav hasn't dropped as much as you think of course. Both Rym and Mft are dam good long term shares and PT would differ with you on Rym on another thread? Still bargains for the brave if you can calc the NAV and determine long term value.

    Glad you saw the light of day eh Treetops

    The discount to NAV still about te same and the share price down to 133 today

    Possibly the result of KFL having too many overvalued stocks in the portfolio .... they better start pumping up the prices again with the old retirment money they are getting soon ... or else no high performance fees this year

  9. #199
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    Winner makes an interesting point , is it enough to look at discount to NAV ?

    Normally you would say yes, however if the company has actually pumped up the prices of its investments then the NAV is artificially high.

    To illustrate this point i will use the example of sealegs. Was around 40-50 cents , however as soon as fisher bought in the price quickly shot up as hgh as 1.00. Fisher investing pumped the price up due to their buying and the buying of others who suddenly thought that if fisher was buying then it was a good company.

    Im not suggesting that there is anything underhand about it all , but when calculating NAV you need to be sure the companies prices are not higher than they would of been if fisher were not holding

  10. #200
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Ratkin .... this is why CCP in OZ hasn't come down to your buy price .... Fisher just keeps on buying

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