Double bottom over what period? It's the lowest against the USD in 5 years.
Yeah I wouldn't be fighting this LT downtrend (No double bottom in sight on the daily charts). Potential hikes by the FED and cuts by RBNZ to come. Might get a ST bounce if Greece sorts itself out.
I'm calling circa 60 by year end.
Double bottom over what period? It's the lowest against the USD in 5 years.
NZD/USD bottomed at 66.60 at midnight on the 2nd then rebounded off 66.75 at 2am on the 4th to close later that day up at 66.90. It may drop a little tomorrow to test 66.75 but don't be surprised if it rises from there throughout the week. The AUD/USD is also ripe for a rebound.
Given Thursday morning's 6% drop in GDT prices, I'd be very surprised if another 25bps is not already factored into the NZD/USD market price.
Also bullish on NZD/GBP.
Discl: long
To foretell the future, one must first unlock the secrets of the past.
Double bottom over what period? It's the lowest against the USD in 5 years.
Have a look at the .6280 double bottom on the NZD/CHF on the night of June 30th and morning of July 4th. The CHF has been strengthening more than the USD partly due to fears about China's equity market volatility these past few days. If and when that settles, there's good percentage gains to be made on the NZD/CHF cross. I'm now long with a stop at .6274.
To foretell the future, one must first unlock the secrets of the past.
There's the double bottom you chaps were looking for @66.60. It went lower to 66.54 for about 2 mins before shooting up to now sit at around 66.80. That's a bullish bounce in my view. Even the Greeks can't push this one down now. Onward and upward.
I'm also now bullish on the AUD/USD - anything under 75c has to attract some psychological support given that a) this past week it's dropped from a high of 77.40...and b) this is the lowest it's been since Feb 2009 in the depths of the GFC. And so I also bought into it this morning before it bounced up to now sit at around 74.88.
Go you good thing...
To foretell the future, one must first unlock the secrets of the past.
Struggling to find much significance in movements up and down over such a small time frame versus the 25% down trend running since September last year. There must have been hundreds if not thousands of such double bottoms/tops etc over the last 12 months.
jeez I hope you are looking to trade a short term bounce as I believe the next OCR cut and attach rechtoric will put further downwards pressure on the Kiwi
The Reserve Bank wanted to get the NZD down to protect the economy in light of its exposure to dropping GDT prices. A lower than expected CPI/Inflation figure also paved the way for a cut. Since their 25bps OCR cut last month, the NZD has dropped a lot against most major currencies. This is also thanks to the plummeting AUD ahead of tomorrow's RBA interest rate announcement (which more analysts are now forecasting to drop).
The market has brought the NZD down to about where the NZRB hoped it would go after their OCR cut (down about 8%). Why cut the rate again already when they would be wiser to instead do that later after the NZD has lifted a bit? I liken it to the gopher arcade game where you wait until it rears its ugly head before hammering it down. There's no point in hammering it down again until it's lifted.
IMO a second 25bps OCR cut is already factored in, and we may well see no change until later this year. The contrarian in me is trading against current market expectation.
BC
Last edited by Bobcat.; 06-07-2015 at 08:43 PM.
To foretell the future, one must first unlock the secrets of the past.
The Reserve Bank wanted to get the NZD down to protect the economy in light of its exposure to dropping GDT prices. A lower than expected CPI/Inflation figure also paved the way for a cut. Since their 25bps OCR cut last month, the NZD has dropped a lot against most major currencies. This is also thanks to the plummeting AUD ahead of tomorrow's RBA interest rate announcement (which more analysts are now forecasting to drop).
The market has brought the NZD down to about where the NZRB hoped it would go after their OCR cut (down about 8%). Why cut the rate again already when they would be wiser to instead do that later after the NZD has lifted a bit? I liken it to the gopher arcade game where you wait until it rears its ugly head before hammering it down. There's no point in hammering it down again until it's lifted.
IMO a second 25bps OCR cut is already factored in, and we may well see no change until later this year. The contrarian in me is trading against current market expectation.
BC
Ballsiest move I ever saw Mav ....
BC they are not just cutting the OCR to lower the Kiwi , and therefore lift the return on exports . They are also cutting it to ease the repayment burden on the over leveraged dairy farmers, not to mention a few hefty Auckland mortgages ...Best way for a central bank to operate is to get ahead of the curve , not behind when it's too late . What's a little bit of inflation between friends .
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Originally Posted by Entrep
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