RBD - Restaurant Brands

[Toddy]

That's a good sales update IMO.

- NZ (the most important segment) year-on-year revenue comps went from +8% to +15% from Q4 to Q1. They are lapping periods of price increases now, so there must be decent volume growth in that too.
- Hawaii went from -1% to +6%. Unexpected recovery this soon; interested to see how that continues.
- Australia and Cali were broadly in line with Q4 year on year numbers.

Possibly. But there is also a good chance that these sales growth results are just a blip on the landscape as massive headwinds with cost pressures facing the loyal customer base.

Im picking that sales growth will fall away.

[nztx]

That's a good sales update IMO.

- NZ (the most important segment) year-on-year revenue comps went from +8% to +15% from Q4 to Q1. They are lapping periods of price increases now, so there must be decent volume growth in that too.
- Hawaii went from -1% to +6%. Unexpected recovery this soon; interested to see how that continues.
- Australia and Cali were broadly in line with Q4 year on year numbers.

32c divy back next April on those upticks ... or maybe not ?

[Ricky-bobby]

Costs will start to come back. Seeing it in Ag with Chem and fert. Wasn’t this stock a winner post 2008? Decline in costs and people still enjoy their chicken! Pizza prices seem the same and haven’t moved in the inflationary environment, is this their loss-leader as it’s more competitive?..

[Goob]

If we cut through all of the large dollar numbers and look it from a purely business units sales point of view.

Did store sales actually increase or retract. I. E was the 6.7 percent increase in dollars due to increased prices or increase unit sales.

Looks like a struggling business.

Price will be the majority for sure.

But we do know the NZ division did not see a volume decline in Y23. From the FY23 Annual Report: "As a result, same store sales growth was maintained without compromising sales volumes."

I reckon KFC NZ easily did 15%+ like-for-like price increases over 2022/2023 in NZ. To not lose volume in 2023 is very good IMO and shows how relatively defensive KFC is

[Goob]

Possibly. But there is also a good chance that these sales growth results are just a blip on the landscape as massive headwinds with cost pressures facing the loyal customer base.

Im picking that sales growth will fall away.

Oh for sure, I absolutely don't expect +15% NZ growth to continue, especially as the comp periods lap the price increases. But by how much do you think they fall? That's what this game is about.

I would point out:
- We are already in a recession. Q1 sales update was a live view of how sales perform in a downturn (for NZ division).
- During the GFC, Restaurant Brands’ KFC stores SSS growth slowed from +7.7% to +4.4%... that's pretty bloody good.

[Habits]

https://www.waikatotimes.co.nz/nz-ne...nger-1-stinger

Uh-oh, price differential putting off regular customers

[Toddy]

https://www.waikatotimes.co.nz/nz-ne...nger-1-stinger

Uh-oh, price differential putting off regular customers

Well, that explains the Super sales growth right there.

[Panda-NZ-]

Jobless rate predicted to increase to 5%, minimum wage far below inflation for at least 3 years is my guess.

Then there's net positive migration (all need to eat somewhere, plus a ready supply of workers). Has to be good for margins in the NZ division.