RBD - Restaurant Brands

[gregrday]

RBD is a cyclical stock that benefits from recessions where they can achieve exceedingly good margins on weak ingredient prices. If you truely think the market weakness isn't a result of the hardening of of ingredient prices (leading to lower margins) and consumers feeling a bit more confident and being sick of the taste of KFC and spending at other prices (leading to lower sales) you're deluding yourself.

re you "haven't seen anything that has altered RBD's intrinsic value". Neither did Bongo as we came out of the last recession. You can't see it just yet - you'll see it shortly though but the mrkts wiser than you think and guessed it before we'll see it. IMNSHO Mr mrkts got this one spot on.

Hi Belgarion

thanks for that. How do you find out about ingredient prices? As you point out, if these go up, KFC (aka RBD!) suffers. So any thoughts along how to find out those ingredient prices, and their potential movements would be great to know.

I guess my problem is... there is some market weakness, but I can't make a causal link with increasing (or potentially increasing) ingredient costs, because I don't know enough about where to get that data from. So any heads-up would be great.

I found:
http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_...ry-prices.aspx

which is pretty interesting, but I understand that RBD has long-term (4 years remaining) agreements with Ingham and Tegal. Im not sure of the details, but I assume that price will be reasonably fixed. Interested to hear any other data around this.

cheers
Greg

[winner69]

Maybe Belg is thinking cheese, milk and coffee beans as a starter ... and then the cost of bread rolls and the stuff that makes the pizza dough .... even if chickens are off limit

[Sauce]

Hi Belgarion

thanks for that. How do you find out about ingredient prices? As you point out, if these go up, KFC (aka RBD!) suffers. So any thoughts along how to find out those ingredient prices, and their potential movements would be great to know.

I guess my problem is... there is some market weakness, but I can't make a causal link with increasing (or potentially increasing) ingredient costs, because I don't know enough about where to get that data from. So any heads-up would be great.

I found:
http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_...ry-prices.aspx

which is pretty interesting, but I understand that RBD has long-term (4 years remaining) agreements with Ingham and Tegal. Im not sure of the details, but I assume that price will be reasonably fixed. Interested to hear any other data around this.

cheers
Greg

Hi Gregday,

Have you thought of trying the company itself?

I started doing this over the last year or so and now believe phoning executives is one of the best ways to quickly understand the business and confirm or rule out parts of your thinking. Even how willing they are to enlighten small shareholders is telling in itself.

Perhaps RBD might even be able to shed some light on ingredient prices and contracts ? ?

Cheers

Sauce

[Stumpynuts]

Save yourself quite a lot of money by making KFC yourself

http://homecooking.about.com/od/chic...lchicken46.htm

[h2so4]

Great I'll give it a go.

I think Greg and Belg want a copy of the costing.

[Snoopy]

KFC, PH and Starbucks stores have all been closed in ChCh since the quake, on the west side of the city. Almost certainly they will be closed in the east too. This hasn't been reported to the NZX, but since the SP dropped to $2.40 today, I guess the market knows!

SNOOPY

[winner69]

You may have strated some panic selling there Snoopy!!!!

WIth interest rates likely to take a dive for the rest of the year RBDs dividend looking even better I would have thought

[gregrday]

Yes, odd the stock has continued to go down. Normally that would suggest I have been buying!
:-)
Still happy with my thesis, and as winner69 points out, the dividend yield will soon be even more attractive. Quarter 4 sales should be out relatively soon, and I'll revisit my valuation then...

cheers
Greg

[gregrday]

True, but I still consider RBD undervalued, so will let it run. I also consider RBD to be stable (assuming management don't get a rush of blood to the head).

I want the NZD to drop like a stone to increase the NZD value of my US stock investments...
60c anyone ? [evil grin + maniacal laugh].

cheers
Greg

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Noticed Starbucks on Lambton Quary by Lambton Square Wellington closed on 28 Feb 2011...
So has the Vodafone outlet a bit closer to Parliament ...