MCR - Time for the bottom drawer!

[okay]

Disc - any other Nickel plays worth a look ??? $11-12lbs USD coming ...also AUD/USD looking to head lower mid 80's ??

Hi JBmurc
I came across this site today. Has a great filter on it, you can filter companies by country, by metal. I'm no expert on metals btw, just finding this nickel discussion interesting and thought I would pass on the link for readers. If you click on the link it is set for all aussie nickel miners. Cheers OK
http://www.miningfeeds.com/nickel-mi...port-australia

[JBmurc]

Hi JBmurc
I came across this site today. Has a great filter on it, you can filter companies by country, by metal. I'm no expert on metals btw, just finding this nickel discussion interesting and thought I would pass on the link for readers. If you click on the link it is set for all aussie nickel miners. Cheers OK
http://www.miningfeeds.com/nickel-mi...port-australia

Yeah come across that site just the other day ....gives you a good run down on other Ni companies to compare....Like PAN

another good site for Stainless / NIckel -http://www.estainlesssteel.com/stainless-steel-news.shtml

PAN has round 170kt Ni resource compared to MCR 117kt ....but then PAN E.V is 200mill compared to 50mill for MCR personal I really like PAN for it's Gold/PGM exposure but personal think Nickel wise MCR is a better bet with a much better exploration outlook--

Like Kambalda one of the world’s great nickel districts----Mincor has nearly 50% of the prospective geology of the Kambalda Nickel District – 130 kilometres of prospective contact.....

Voyce-Turner Mineralised Cluster... very exciting high 7%+ grades and with MCR large spend up in exploration think we will massively increase are Ni resource base

[JBmurc]

Brighter future predicted for Australian nickel 26 September, 2014 Kevin Skinner*
An average nickel price of US$20 000 per tonne has been forecast for Australian nickel producers in 2015 – but the sector has been urged to keep its grass roots focus on untapped potential nickel discoveries in Australia, rather than overseas. The price expectation is more than 11 per cent higher than the average US$18 000 evident in the sector so far in calendar 2014 – with Perth-based Alto Capital research analyst, Carey Smith, saying returns could go even higher due to pressure from the greenback. “By next year, I expect that the Australian dollar will be trading around the range of 85-87c to the US dollar on average and that will be a bonus for Australian nickel producers,” Smith said. “That exchange market environment can potentially add another 20 per cent in Aussie dollar terms to revenue for producers, so the outlook for nickel not only looks pretty rosy at the moment but continues to hold firm for the long-term,” he said. Alto Capital’s upbeat 2015 price outlook comes on the eve of next week’s one day Australian Nickel Conference in Perth on Thursday October 2 – a forum both Smith and organisers say will be held amid the most elevated outlook for the commodity in some years. Nickel was trading below $US14 000/t at the close of last year’s conference but Smith says the base metal has since easily accounted for predictions that it could exceed $US18 500/t in 2014. “For Australia’s nickel explorers, a positive nickel market makes it much easier to raise capital so the sector should be confident of at least a forward 12 month window of raising funds,” Smith said. “However, a dose of realism is also needed and while there is always pressure to unearth the next big discovery, our junior explorers have time on their side – particularly if they are venturing into Western Australia’s Fraser Range,” he said. “While Sirius Resources ignited that region when it struck nickel sulphide mineralisation at Nova just over two years ago, Fraser Range is still a very fresh nickel province and we should not expect the Sirius success to be replicated in any sort of hurry,” Smith said. “Two years in a whole new province isn’t a long time to get to understand its geology and my sense is that nickel explorers already in or planning to enter the province have a two-year window or so in order to make the level of discoveries that can keep market sentiment interested in both nickel, and the Fraser Range.” Smith noted that some Australian explorers are seeking opportunities away from Australia but nickel-minded players did not need to look much further than Western Australia. “Historic nickel-bearing hot spots such as Kambalda and Leonora/Leinster still offer great potential for significant nickel discoveries, as well as Fraser Range, as there is still plenty of nickel to be discovered in those areas,” he said. “This is because nickel is a very hard to find base metal, with very small footprints that are mostly nickel sulphide deposits.” He called on proven nickel companies to play a role in reinvigorating the Australian nickel industry by supporting wider grassroots and brownfields exploration. Australian Nickel Conference Convenor, Bill Repard, said the nickel sector had been energised this year, partly by speculation about how rapidly China was depleting its 2013 ore stockpile of 25 million tonnes, and similar speculation on when and if the Philippines would follow Indonesia’s path and impose export bans on unprocessed nickel ore. “Currently, there are no new large-scale nickel projects coming on stream and existing or mooted export bans will only add to the pace at which supply and demand pressures must invariably spike a price rise,” Repard said. *Kevin Skinner is with Field PR.

[Skol]

Just bought some of these so it's fingers crossed as usual. Nickel price back and there seem to be support around the 60c level, a few technical factors make it attractive as well.

[JBmurc]

Yes have to agree with you on that skol.....good buying support round these levels ...like to buy a few more get my average down closer to the 60c mark

[JBmurc]

reasons for the weaker Nickel price of late

://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/23/us-china-nickel-home-idUSKCN0HI2B120140923

[JBmurc]

Mincor CEO sees strong nickel market in 2015 on uptick in global economy
Gold Coast, Queensland (Platts)--1Oct2014/147 am EDT/547 GMT

Australian nickel producer Mincor Resources expects the nickel market to perform strongly in 2015 and move back above the $20,000/mt level as demand is boosted by a booming US economy and a stock drawdown in China, company CEO David Moore told a conference in Queensland Wednesday, October 1.

The LME nickel price stood at $16,505/mt Tuesday, but has largely traded in the range of $18,200-20,000/mt since Indonesia imposed a ban on nickel laterite ore exports in January, hitting a year-to-date peak of $21,500/mt in early May, LME data showed.

"I am pretty positive on the nickel price for next year and think we are going to endure weakness for the rest of this year and then we could see a nice step up," Moore told Platts on the sidelines of the Resources Rising Stars conference on Queensland's Gold Coast.

Most analysts were still forecasting strong prices for next year despite being a little less certain due in part to the increase in exports from the Philippines, Moore said

China has relied on its own stockpiles of ore and imports from the Philippines to meet its requirements since the Indonesian export ban was imposed, but Moore said this was mostly lower grade ore and not capable of filling the void left by the Indonesian ban.

"My view is that the original thesis is still there, that is, that 20 million mt of laterite ore stockpiled in China has been chewed through, augmented a bit perhaps by the Philippines, but it will be chewed through within the next six months and after that there will be another increase in the price, maybe to $20,000/mt," he said.

Moore said demand for nickel looks healthy as the US economy picks up, Britain looks stronger and Europe was showing "vague signs" of life. "There is a slowdown in China but the US is still the world's strongest economy and that can have a huge impact," Moore said.

Mincor produces nickel ore at its Miitel and Mariners mines in the Kambalda district of Western Australia, which is turned into concentrate at Nickel West's Kambalda smelter.

Nickel West's current owner BHP Billiton said in August it was trying to sell the business.

Mincor has an offtake agreement until 2019 with Nickel West to sell all concentrate to the smelter at a price based on the monthly average of the LME nickel price, which Moor said would be binding on a new owner.

"Our concentrate is vital to the smelter which is the main asset at Nickel West. Whoever owns the smelter really needs to keep it full and it really relies on ores from central Western Australia," Moore said. Mincor produced 10,219 mt of nickel in ore in fiscal 2013-14 at a cost of A$4.96/lb ($4.29/lb) and targets producing 8,500 mt in fiscal 2014-15 at a cost of A$5.30/lb.

[stevo1]

"My view is that the original thesis is still there, that is, that 20 million mt of laterite ore stockpiled in China has been chewed through, augmented a bit perhaps by the Philippines, but it will be chewed through within the next six months and after that there will be another increase in the price, maybe to $20,000/mt," he said.
JB------ Moore is making a big call there!!!He may be right

If he is wrong then not so good for MCR because the output projected will be less than current year?And at higher $AUcost.
"Our concentrate is vital to the smelter which is the main asset at Nickel West. "Whoever owns the smelter really needs to keep it full and it really relies on ores from central Western Australia," Moore said. Mincor produced 10,219 mt of nickel in ore in fiscal 2013-14 at a cost of A$4.96/lb ($4.29/lb) and targets producing 8,500 mt in fiscal 2014-15 at a cost of A$5.30/lb."
However having said that he is a clever operator who has guided MCR on a so far profitable past
I am looking to add BUT not until I see LME stock dropping .The LME chart looks like a skyrocket trajectory

[JBmurc]

Yes I'm not buying more just at this stage either as I think it could really just trend sideways for the next few months on the back of the large Ni stockpile ..also a major slowdown in china etc not going help ..still very tempted at these levels

...I agree on Mr Moore being a smart operator .....a good buy if you have a longer term outlook really think one would be rewarded 6-12months (the latter my worst case) ...surely the Ni price will be over 20,000ton USD (22,951ton aud) in that time

.....even at the higher costs MCR will produce for round $10,600ton AUD currently should be getting over 18000ton AUD -$7,400 gross profit from operations .....8000t p.a =59mill AUD.....

Also I only recent found out MCR produces round 1100t copper/cobalt bi-product p.a from the projects giving round 31c credit per lb .....

[JBmurc]

Nickel market deficits ahead

The impact of economic nationalism on the nickel price has also changed market dynamics. When the Indonesian ban was imposed nickel rose 45% from February to June revealing how much the market depended on Indonesia’s low grade laterite ore. The ban sent stocks like Sirius running until the early September break in spot iron ore which stopped the rise in its tracks. While nickel is now back below US$8lb the $A price of $19,000 a ton is relatively high for companies with grade and volume like Sirius.

Vale, the owner of Inco and the huge Voisey’s Bay nickel deposit has entered the field near the Sirius tenements. Poseidon’s purchase of Norislk’s Black Swan nickel mine and ore body also looks timely. Black Swan has been moth-balled since 2009, but now provides a very low cost plant for Poseidon’s Windarra deposit. The company is nothing if not bullish and quotes Wood McKenzie, the global resources consultant which forecasts that even without the Indonesian ban nickel will be in deficit for a decade.