AXG - Antipodes Gold [formerly GEL - Glass Earth]

[elZorro]

The TSX price for GEL ended up slightly below C20c, reasonable volume there. The market is saying that this private placement at 20c should be a fair valuation of the value of each GEL share at the moment.

It is true that while GEL has produced the Q1 MD&A report and filed it with regulatory authorities, you cannot find it on the web except by digging into SEDAR or by looking at my cut-down version futher back in this thread. Neither is there any update to the website from the last two media outputs. Ordinary shareholders are all still very unsure about the details on the GRUs, and of course we will not be told the average grades at each permit, only the total gold ounces recovered. This will not allow shareholders to gauge the profitability of the placer mining, and a big chunk of the predicted profits will need to go to Bob Kilgour under the repayment plan.

Make no doubt about it, this data is critical for an FA evaluation of the company for the next year or two, because as we have seen, mining exploration is done in terms of years of drilling, not in months. Despite my fond hope of Glass Earth using an asset finance company loan or short-term bank overdraft going forward, this has not been the case. The C35c options are now gone as a liability or overhang on the shareprice, but in return the only avenue for fund raising seems to be another firesale of shares.

I have had occasion to borrow money for a business case, not in this league of course. Banks are hard-nosed, and usually, unencumbered land and buildings are the security they will seek. They will not be very interested in second-hand mining equipment, and permits with promise but no immediate surplus income. This is where the private shareholders and the market must step in.

Just as long as we are all aware that the banks, finance companies and even the private placement investors are saying that GEL is not a "no-brainer investment" yet. It's kind of poetic that the current TSX price is C20c. That's the IPO price (2006), but we've had a 1 for 5 consolidation since then. A long-term holder would have done very poorly, we must all learn from that.

[elZorro]

20 days after the Q1 report was notified to the market, it's now posted in full with the MD&A, on the GEL website under the financial reports section. Still very hard to dig the data out from within a big long text listing.

The GEL price is on the move to NZ29c, which is curious since the Canadian price is stuck hard on C20c or lower. So while all of the volume activity happens on the TSX, some NZers are paying 20% more for the share over here. And I doubt whether we can lead the share up.

My attitude at the moment, is that Glass Earth has the cash they needed to temporarily make good on the deal they struck with Bob Kilgour. Like OGC before them, they saw the prize and simply sold more shares at a lower price to get the required capital, diluting those of us who are longer-term holders. I know they tried hard to get the C35c options picked up, but this sort of marketing needs to be sustained over months, not weeks.

Now if we wanted to, we should be able to buy raw shares near C20c (without the future warrant sweetener offered to the private placement investors), and I am doing so, over on the TSX.