AXG - Antipodes Gold [formerly GEL - Glass Earth]

[elZorro]

To make any valuation on Glass Earth, I think we need to consider their IP, and likely prospects. This is important for all of us: what max price should we pay for their shares and stay comfortable? Is the investment safe?

Attachment 2091

The attachment here shows GEL's permits and areas, gives a brief description as far as I could make out in a short look, and there may be lots of errors in those. The areas, permit numbers and costs for permits etc should be accurate. Does anyone have an idea on how the valuation could be reached?

If you stumped up with some dosh tomorrow and wanted to buy Glass Earth outright, what do you think would be a sensible opening bid?

[elZorro]

The corporate information for the AGM is another way of looking at the valuation for Glass Earth.

One major, and the corporate shareholders, shown there as at that date:

Herbert Abramson (St Andrews Gold, pvt holding, Canada) 21,323,000 shares (13.77%), my guess paid average of CAN11c or more for these.

Simon Henderson, NZ CEO, has 5,688,000 shares (3.67%)
Peter Liddle, NZ CFO, has 2,500,000 shares (1.61%)
John Dow, Director and Chairman, has 500,000 shares (0.32%)

http://www.glassearthlimited.com/pdf...ar_20May09.pdf

There's a lot more data in this document that will help too. As a good indicator, Glass Earth pays a sensible salary to two top executives, and has always had a discovery bonus for the CEO.

[Aotea]

Offer of some trout fishing on the cicada hatch is there for you both..will hunt up the periods when they go off and report back...

[elZorro]

Offer of some trout fishing on the cicada hatch is there for you both..will hunt up the periods when they go off and report back...

Many thanks for that Aotea, looking forward to it. It's raining here today, water everywhere.. hoping to catch some more trout at Taupo over the long weekend.

Not much happening with GEL that I can see out there, but apparently they're looking to produce a press release in the near future, and we might get some new photos on the website, as they have heaps to choose from (how's it going Andrew and Peter?)

The GEL valuation is a hard nut to crack (any comments appreciated) and without being right in the operation, we have to look at all provided info. Some of the portable test equipment they use (CSAMT) looks very useful, as it superimposes a signal on the natural EM waves that are tiny within the earth, but always changing (e.g with solar wind). Different nearby minerals and material (like water) affect this signal. It allows them to look several hundred metres down, whereas the Hoist EM data was quite shallow I think.

Maybe GEL will know a lot more about where to find water near their prospects than most, so I'm not as worried about water supply as you are, Aotea.

[Aotea]

EZ,
Sorry to be eternally a pessimist with water...but, not only are the surface water catchment overallocated many times over, the groundwater aquifers are also either poorly understood and Council not giving further takes, or like many of these permits, the aquifers themselves are significantly overallocated, ie in the wider Ophir area, the Manuherikea claybound aquifer. My advice to get more info on this for free is to contact the ORC, 03 474 0827 and ask to speak to Matt Dale (surface water allocation) or Claire Houlibrooke for aquifer info...

[elZorro]

Hi Aotea, thanks for that, but I don't want get too involved in the company business with ORC..we'll all have to wait until the MPAs are approved anyway.

Overnight someone invested in 1,000,000 GEL shares on the TSX, all at the top of their current price range (CAN5.5c). With the current exchange rate, these could have been a good buy for a NZ connection. Listed for sale over there are just 606,000 shares, in 16 small? parcels, range 5.5c-8c.

[elZorro]

Still no press release, or mods to the main GEL website. But again, the CHFIR profile for Glass Earth has been modified, in a small way. I think the highlighted part is what has changed, and it's promising..

The Company is conducting feasibility studies to mine placer gold under its giant Otago permits (historical placer production 8 M ounces gold) with the objective of providing funding of its continuing hard rock gold exploration. Glass Earth announced in June 2009 that it has optioned into Golden Fern Resources Ltd.’s Rise & Shine Gold prospect. In August 2009, Glass Earth entered into an option agreement to acquire a 50% equity interest in the Ophir project with Ophir Gold Ltd, a private Company based in New Zealand, which will allow Glass Earth to be hard rock mining by the end of 2009.

In the Otago region, initial vectors to the major controlling structures, recognized to host significant hard rock gold; have proven to lie directly under placer gold deposits. To determine the significance of this relative to a major new discovery and, as a secondary bonus, to secure exploration funds, Glass Earth plans to move rapidly to small scale mining of these placer resources. Feasibility studies are currently underway to demonstrate that GEL could be placer mining by the Canadian fall; such plans will be thoroughly scrutinized by the GEL Board, to ensure that the primary objective of a major hard rock gold discovery is not compromised.

............skipped some known data..

Glass Earth is now at the target specific drilling stage in three regions: Hauraki; Mamaku and Otago.
Key targets in those areas are:

• WKP in Hauraki (Newmont funded)
• Muirs in Mamaku
• Serpentine in Otago.
• Rise & Shine gold prospect in Otago.

The same day the CHFIR profile was changed, 1mill GEL shares were purchased in one parcel for CDN5.5c.

I don't know about the rest of us, but I think there has been plenty of background news posted here which is material to the market, and a press release is overdue. Thanks in advance..

[elZorro]

There was a news release on the TSX market overnight, as below:

http://www.metalsnews.com/news.aspx?NewsID=68292

WELLINGTON, NEW ZEALAND--(Marketwire - Oct. 28, 2009) - Glass Earth Gold Limited (TSX VENTURE:GEL)(NZAX:GEL) ("Glass Earth") wishes to announce that it is undertaking a private placement financing for gross proceeds of up to C$500,000.

Private Placement

The Private Placement will consist of up to 10,000,000 units at a price of C$0.05 per unit. Each unit will consist of one common share and one share purchase warrant. Each warrant will entitle the holder to purchase one common share at a price of C$0.10 per share, exercisable for a period of 3 years from the closing date.

The proceeds from the financing will be used for general corporate purposes.

All the securities issued pursuant to the foregoing will be subject to a four-month hold period. The private placement is subject to the approval of the TSX Venture Exchange.

Issuance of Shares Pursuant to Farm-In Terms

Glass Earth has previously announced the:

Option into the Rise & Shine prospect (June 9, 2009); and
Farm-In to the Ophir Gold Ltd Exploration Permit 40 427 (August 18th, 2009).
Both of these agreements require the issuance of fully paid common shares as a component part of the deals. The Rise & Shine Option requires the issuance of 100,000 Glass Earth shares and the Ophir Gold Farm-In requires the issuance of one million Glass Earth shares. The issuance of these shares is subject to the approval of the TSX Venture Exchange.

Glass Earth is finalising regulatory consents and completing preparations for bulk testing at each of its initial placer and hard rock targets.

Qualified Persons...etc

My guess is that Mr Abramson has been offered 10 million shares at a fair price for this volume, which will bring his average cost down a bit, and provide the cashflow needed to get the placer and hardrock mining going. After doing those CM fee figures the other day, I didn't expect there to be much cash left lying around in the Glass Earth office safe.

I don't think anyone could grumble about this: we've all had the option of ringing up the GEL office and looking for a similar deal no doubt. And I thought they were looking for $1mill, maybe there's still time for someone...

Of other interest, the farm-in options don't look to be too expensive in terms of shares, by comparison with what returns might be made. These look like a good deal too.

But apart from stating the obvious about doing paperwork for the regulatory consents, we still don't know how any of the placer testing and drilling went over the last few months. At least it looks like the MPAs should be approved no problem, if they are working on the regional council requirements perhaps.

The CHFIR site profile change the other day was better than I'd hoped:

Glass Earth’s strategy for 2009 onwards is therefore simple:

To continue work on high priority targets,building towards NI 43 101 compliant resources; and

Place mining to provide sustainable cash flow; with the first plant expected to be running by year-end 2009.

Any comments?

[Aotea]

Have got to say to those previously dicussing the merits of GEL v HGD...that GEL looks to be running out of cash and HGD is looking at boosting..

[elZorro]

Have got to say to those previously dicussing the merits of GEL v HGD...that GEL looks to be running out of cash and HGD is looking at boosting..

Maybe you were right Aotea, HGD had more room to improve I guess, its market cap is now approaching that of GEL's..does that make sense? And to think I sold quite a few HGD at just above 2c...

One thing positive about all this on GEL's behalf - look at the interest and money flowing into the market, once it looks like something is on the go.

Glass Earth must be preparing a decent press release, they now have the funds to get their own cashflow firing.