Balance - I'm not touchy, I'm just saying that you should be sure of your research before making grand claims. The salary package for the CEO of Glass Earth wouldn't get me too excited. It looks like a lot of work and stress for that sort of a tax-paid return. Members of the board are paid a very small amount, although that looks like being improved a bit in the next AGM. Glass Earth has been a frugal operation all the way through, and they've been out there doing it, just like they promised.
I agree that it would have been less risky investing in gold from that great runup from $300 an ounce to $1800, in hindsight. But GEL and some other junior explorers have the clear potential to be 10-30 baggers in the medium term.
So let's see.
Shares were listed in October 2006 at 25 cents per share.
Now they are trading at 10.9c per share but that's after a 5:1 consolidation in Mar 2010.
So it's equivalent of 2.18c per share - 92.8% loss over 6.5 years for those who got in at the IPO level.
Rather hard to get excited about a stock with that kind of loss track record, wouldn't you agree?
All junior explorers in my observation raise funds by holding up the promise of 50 to 100 baggers.
Most go the other way however and deliver massive negative returns. Become shell companies for backdoor listings.
Glass Earth has needed to expend $50-$60mill on exploration over the last 7 years, much with external contractors, and a good portion was spent up front with the airborne surveys. This has provided a wealth of data covering a big part of NZ, and some has been used to track down water supplies in Otago, or to help spot an unknown large lava area near Taupo. It also highlighted WKP, and many other sites, only some of which were drilled after further ground-level investigation. This data will be there to help future mineral exploration in NZ.
While the risks for junior explorers are high on individual new projects, GEL has looked at multiple permits, on a scale never seen in NZ before. This mitigates the overall risk of finding nothing. Brent Cook chose GEL as one of the shares he held for about 2 years, while we waited for more drill assays from the big WKP prospect. If you look at the chart, investors had some opportunity to recover any losses during that period, in Sept 2011 when the share reached well over NZ70c, and in Oct 2012 there was a moderate peak near 50c. But many investors will chose to stay for the end game. Glass Earth is now focusing on their best prospects, after doing the hard yards.
I've had a bit of a look at the NZPAM site, some developments there for GEL. Permit PP39336 (Southland) has been extended until 5th May 2014. This is a large permit area of 15,140 Ha, surrounding some other permits including one or two of GEL's. There is platinum in the general area.
Also, EP54765 has been granted, this is Moeraki. It had a mention in the February report. From the ODT:
Aside from ongoing drill testing and sampling around the Ophir gold project in Otago and nearby Garibaldi prospect, Mr Henderson delivered a technical report in February looking at four other Otago and Southland projects, in the valleys of Manuherikia, Maniototo and Waikaia, where alluvial gold lies in shallow gravels, 1m-11m below the surface.
Glass Earth has also been granted prospecting permits around North Otago, in the Kakanui and Hawkdun ranges, with stream and soil sampling under way, including at a permit near Moeraki. simon.hartley@odt.co.nz
Moeraki is a wide skinny permit stretching from Northwest to Southeast across part of the South Island. The other very interesting feature is that it shares a southern border with OGC's Macraes Mine permits. Moeraki is valid until 18th May 2018.
A strengthening of buying interest shown for Glass Earth after the overnight press release on the TSX. Some of the WKP36 and 37 drill assays have been divulged, and these would probably have been from the more obvious parts of the drills, or we are being shown the best parts. WKP drilling is resumed, and a lack of water for drilling use (drought) has been offered as one reason for the delay.
The grades are not great, but the point is that once again, it doesn't seem to matter where they drill at WKP, they find gold and silver at the sort of grades a large-scale opencast would work with, on top of some much higher grade intersections suitable for underground work. The proposed drilling areas for the next 2400mtrs of drilling (and this only really makes up for the 2012 drilling campaign not completed) shows some economy being used, three drills from one collar. The area of interest has changed, they're heading roughly North-east from WKP37 and drilling back near some legacy holes.
The planned 2,400m drilling programme focusses on testing the under-explored EG structure (first discussed in a Glass Earth Gold press release, 31st October 2012), both along strike and up and down dip. See Figure 1. The 2013 work program is budgeted to cost approximately $C2.3M (Glass Earth Gold's share ~$C0.8M), and is to include project-first resource estimates.
the end of the month cannot come soon enough! 9c...
so am i right in assuming that the EoY report that last came out had all of the expenditure write offs for the equipment needed for the placer mine down south....therefore on this end of quarter report that is coming out it should state that the company is self sufficient even possibly in a state of profit as there shouldnt really be any write offs for the placer op on exploration and staff costs?
also im looking forward to seeing how they are measuring up to their own targets they set out in terms of Oz per week production.
I emailed them last week about organising a site visit to the placer production just to have a look and see how well its running, I got a reply from simons assistant saying he should contact me some time next week to discuss the visit for later on in the year!
Further to the new EP above Macraes: GEL also have the large PP above that (PP53297), although some of it seems to be earmarked for a competitive tender in 2013.
Just thought I'd point out that SEDAR is holding the file of an amended MD&A report dated 26 April 2013. As far as I've been able to see, one change is on page 27, where a Selected Annual Information table has been added.
This shows total revenue up nearly 400% over the previous year to nearly C$3mill, but paper writeoffs of older mineral properties in 2012 resulted in a loss per share of C15c. Previous two years it was 3c each year. Total assets remain unchanged basically, at around C$17mill (mostly exploration and equipment). So book assets are well above the MCap, a fairly safe situation compared to some growth shares I could name.
The financial statements don't seem to have been changed, so this is some sort of a regulation criteria. As the MD&A document size hasn't changed much, and it's still 40 pages long, that should be all that was changed. Glass Earth's website still holds the original superceded document at the moment.
Based on the placer data we have, and gold at US$1450 an ounce, GEL should be able to take $7mill of gold revenue out of Drybread in the next year. That's revenue, not net profit..
Interesting comment, that there is potential for a project first resource estimate for WKP in Q2 of 2013, also referred to as "later in the year". But I have learnt to be careful with their data, after some wonderful bogus grades were reported once before.
WKP is on JV permit EP40598. This permit expires on 21st May 2013. It's already an extended permit, has run for 10 years, and the next stage to hold it might be to call it a discovery appraisal.
Here's the list of work that needs to be completed and into NZPAM by the 120 month stage. So the estimate we're waiting for, has to be produced fairly soon, along with some more drilling results, unless they're ahead on that front.
I've spent a bit of time looking back at the documentation for the WKP permit.
It turns out that a London-based firm, HPD Investments Ltd, had a wholly owned subsidiary that used some UK-raised funds to have a look over here for prospective gold permits. They used a contractor (Kenex) to help with that. One of HPD's directors, Marc Sale, was also a technical manager. In late 2005, a deal was struck where Glass Earth Ltd bought out all of these NZ permits (HPD NZ Ltd) for NZ$4mill.
HPD: HPD,who were acquired by Glass Earth (New Zealand) Limited, used prospectivity modelling to acquire and manage exploration on projects throughout Otago,Marlborough, and in the North Island of New Zealand. They used the prospectivity modelling to identify areas that lacked specific geological and geochemical data that could enhance the prospectivity of their targets.
This allowed HPD to design cost-effective exploration programs, prioritise their project expenditure, and rapidly identify those prospects that had the best chance of being developed.The tenement package acquired by HPD was considered highly prospective by other exploration companies, who then offered HPD a variety of investment and joint venture proposals.
HPD NZ recently merged with Glass Earth, a new NZ exploration company, in a deal worth $4M to HPD NZ shareholders. Glass Earth acquired the prospects developed through the modelling work done by Kenex. This valuable exploration land assembled by HPD is today undergoing drilling and aggressive exploration by Glass Earth. [top]
Some of the HPD permits were in the CVR area above Taupo, and others were around Waihi. Earlier research papers may have highlighted some of the areas for the HPD team. WKP was one of the areas, and it received an early mention in the IPO prospectus for Glass Earth, later on in 2006.
As an aside, Marc Sale was at one stage going to be a director of Glass Earth according to NZPAM, but that didn't happen, and he is still linked with the parent of HPD, Patagonia Gold PLC, as a technical director. Patagonia are exploring for gold in Argentina.
During the 10 years from 2003 when the WKP area's permit was first started as no. EP40598 (3650Ha), the area was expanded by GEL and then reduced by the normal rules, but has more recently been added to by petition, so that it is 30% bigger than when it was first approved (now 4751Ha).
This has also preserved most of the exploration data with the JV, it cannot be divulged by NZPAM until the permit is cancelled, or surrendered. Successive permit types preserve the IP too. While Glass Earth took over the rights to the WKP permit area effectively in late 2005, Waihi Gold (Newmont) was brought in as a farm-in partner in an agreement dated 26 February 2007, 3-4 months after the IPO. I've mentioned before the strong links that Glass Earth has with Newmont, particularly through their chairman, John Dow. Newmont had earned a 65% share in the permit by 23 August 2010.
It looks like May 2013 could be an interesting point in the timeline for the WKP permit.
A discovery appraisal application doesn't appear to have been lodged yet, but they have some time left.
Today, the extension of area in GEL's permit EP40767 has been granted, which I think restores some ground that was lost near the Waihi pit due to the normal reduction in permit area. They have until 20 December 2015 (end of 10 years) to complete another 1000mtrs of drilling, but no preliminary resource estimate is required, according to the paperwork loaded up at the moment.
These permit areas that are being added, signal an ongoing interest in resources sited near Newmont's mill and ore/tailings handling facilities at Waihi.
The next report is due out at the end of the month so im forcasting a small rally after its release based off of the income they will be making off of the placer mine down south, reducing the need for further dillution to the stock.
Also I think we are coming up soon to a pre-feasability report in the next 3-6 months with the way these drill results keep striking
Originally Posted by elZorro
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