TRA - Turners Automotive Group [previously TNR - Turners Limited]

[JeremyALD]

This is starting to fall back a bit. Not a lot of buyers. Considering whether it's time to sell my small share?

[percy]

This is starting to fall back a bit. Not a lot of buyers. Considering whether it's time to sell my small share?

Maybe.?,,But I would be slowly adding.!!
This year is not expected to produce the big increase in eps growth we were wanting.
The big 25% eps growth will come next year.
I am more than happy to wait, as I think TNR is a fantastic company with a great future.

[Joshuatree]

Went for a drive in a Prius at Turners today. They extract fees from the seller ,they extract layered fees from the buyer; they offer finance, insurance. The friendly new salesman fresh from aus did his best to get me onboard without being a pain. Happy shareholder here.

[Beagle]

People who don't want any potential downside risk might like to read back on this thread regarding my analysis of the convertible bonds which give all the upside with none of the downside.
I agree 100% with Joshuatree and Percy's posts above.

[Fox]

They have an incredible product offering that is becoming more integrated with each year. Insurance float feeds the loan receivables; loans and insurance are sold alongside car sales - it's just a virtuous cycle of growth. Synergies from the newly acquired Autosure business will also present themselves in FY18 as the products integrate with the current business model. Whats more to love?

[Beagle]

Yes indeed Percy I wonder if they'll run the ruler over the Turner Bonds TNRHB ? https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/242679.pdf

Interesting to note the conversion / redemption terms are the lesser of a 5% discount to 90 day VWAP leading up to 30 Sept 2018 or $3.75.
The original valuation of the option to convert these to shares at $3.75 was originally valued at 3-5 cents per share when the SP was $3.12 mid 2016. With over 18 months to go and the bonds now capturing all the upside but none of the downside yesterday the hound went hunting for his trusty Black and Schoals Option pricing model http://www.tradingtoday.com/black-scholes to value the option element of these bonds and discovered a very interesting result.

Depending on variables and after checking on two other option pricing models today I see fair value of the option content of these bonds as 29 - 50 cents per bond. Fair value including the capital 1.00 value of the bond is thus $1.29-$1.50, last trade $1.065 Given the company itself is performing well and growing strongly the bonds appear to pay an attractive return of 6.5% and capture all of the upside but none of the potential downside.

Disc: Hold both the shares and bonds, (more bonds than shares).

Here's the main part of it here.
I now only hold the convertible bonds.

[Fox]

Here's the main part of it here.
I now only hold the convertible bonds.

Here is some analysis I did last week on Turners bonds. Figures I used were 10,000 bonds @ $1.0825. As you can see there isn't much value in the bonds, but you're effectively buying a call option.

http://puu.sh/uL9eQ/7ef7daf504.png

[percy]

Here's the main part of it here.
I now only hold the convertible bonds.

Although I do not hold any, I think the convertible bonds are a very good investment,as Roger rightly points out,more upside than downside potential.
However my back of the envelope valuation is a lot lower than Roger's.
Maybe I would not pay any more than $1.08 to $1.10.
So before buying BYOR,on the conversion rate.

[JeremyALD]

Thanks all I shall hold on for now and perhaps I'll top up if it falls below $3.50

[JeremyALD]

Good annoucement about progress and Q3 results, including duel listing on ASX.

This makes me more happy given the recent drop in SP. Definitely considering topping up at the current price.