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  1. #651
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger View Post
    Interestingly he also says the 10 year average is 74.3 cents, wow, didn't realise that. The 65 cents they suffered this year is 12.5% below ten year average. Might have to re-model my expectations @ 74 cents, currently expecting over $20m based on 70 cents for FY17. If we get up into the late 70's or early 80's it's BONANZA time for importers, (not so good for exporters).
    Spooky thing with that average of 74 cents is that only about 20% (going from memory when I last did it) of the time is it within +/-2 cents - rest of time oscillating from highs to lows

    That 74 cents goes back to the 70'cs though - is only about 66 this century

    First time I ventured out of the country I got US$1,30 odd for my NZ$
    Last edited by winner69; 25-08-2016 at 04:05 PM.
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  2. #652
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger View Post
    Interestingly he also says the 10 year average is 74.3 cents, wow, didn't realise that. The 65 cents they suffered this year is 12.5% below ten year average. Might have to re-model my expectations @ 74 cents, currently expecting over $20m based on 70 cents for FY17. If we get up into the late 70's or early 80's it's BONANZA time for importers, (not so good for exporters).
    I hold quite a few HLG but wouldn't be quite so bullish. Some of the FX gain will evaporate with competition and there are many other variables like weather and new competitors to keep in mind. I'm hoping they can deliver $17-18m+ next year but just because NZDUSD might be 75c instead of 65c does not make $20m certain or even likely imho.

  3. #653
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    I don't think HLG have ever seen themselves as a 'growth' company

    Over the last few years they have refreshed / fine tuned their business to meeting the ever changing competitive landscape (just like they have done for over a hundred years). Sales growth over the last 5 years has been less than 2%pa

    However the business generates heaps of cash. Spend some on keeping then business going and pay the rest out as dividends. You can do this when you don't have any debt.

    Table shows their dividend history and % of operating cash flow paid out. Guessed F16 (and probably more than 30 cents) but still pretty healthy eh.

    From F11 to F15 they have generated $120m of cash - reinvested $37m back into the business - and paid out $94m in dividends

    Despite the gloom and despondency of this impending global domination of the NZ market I reckon HLG will be show resilience - and maintain those pretty health dividends for some time

    So how much do you pay for a minimum 30 cent dividend - heaps more then $2.85 I would say - more like $3.75 to $4.00 these days
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  4. #654
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    I don't think HLG have ever seen themselves as a 'growth' company

    Over the last few years they have refreshed / fine tuned their business to meeting the ever changing competitive landscape (just like they have done for over a hundred years). Sales growth over the last 5 years has been less than 2%pa

    However the business generates heaps of cash. Spend some on keeping then business going and pay the rest out as dividends. You can do this when you don't have any debt.

    Table shows their dividend history and % of operating cash flow paid out. Guessed F16 (and probably more than 30 cents) but still pretty healthy eh.

    From F11 to F15 they have generated $120m of cash - reinvested $37m back into the business - and paid out $94m in dividends

    Despite the gloom and despondency of this impending global domination of the NZ market I reckon HLG will be show resilience - and maintain those pretty health dividends for some time

    So how much do you pay for a minimum 30 cent dividend - heaps more then $2.85 I would say - more like $3.75 to $4.00 these days
    Good post sum's the situation up very well in my opinion.

  5. #655
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Closing in the $3 mark .....good stuff
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  6. #656
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    Ya good stuff retails stats looking a little static the past two months.. To early to tell if a trend

  7. #657
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Retail Watch data (from electronic card spend) showed clothing and footwear store August sales were up 6.2% on last year. Total retail sales up 3.1% so clothing doing very well

    One would think that Hallensteins / Glassons etc recent sales in NZ would be looking pretty healthy

    Getting close to 300 - still cheap as
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  8. #658
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Retail Watch data (from electronic card spend) showed clothing and footwear store August sales were up 6.2% on last year. Total retail sales up 3.1% so clothing doing very well

    One would think that Hallensteins / Glassons etc recent sales in NZ would be looking pretty healthy

    Getting close to 300 - still cheap as

    So who has the correct data, on the radio they were quoting the infometrics data (??) suggested static/declining clothing and footwear for past two months...hmmmm

    I bought more of these suckers a while back on a punt based on Rodger recommendation and I will not go sour if he is proven wrong for a change..I will buy him a beer instead...no depth or scale compared to AIR so buying for yield and the rising current...go figure.
    Last edited by Raz; 13-09-2016 at 08:53 PM.

  9. #659
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    That Retail Watch data is sourced from Westpac. Generally sort of ties in with Stats NZ Electronic Card Tranasaction monthly figures but gives more industry breakdown.

    Stats NZ said total spend was up 3.7% on August last year

    Probably the people on the radio were talking seasonally adjusted numbers .....which are flat / slightly down .....but being well ahead of last year is good
    Last edited by winner69; 14-09-2016 at 08:13 AM.
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  10. #660
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    You been busy here today Raz ?

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