Pumpkin Patch

[winner69]

Good old Mary at the AGM

"Each year at the AGM we come and listen to the same, same talk all the time," shareholder Mary Bell said during question time.

"How on earth do you think that you lot are going to change and do something for the shareholders? We've received nothing at all. Nothing."

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11551742

[Tomtom]

Many highly credentialed people have tried over the last few years but failed - a whole lot of new faces also with impeccable pedigrees are now having a go.

"When management with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for bad economics, it is usually the reputation of the business that remains intact."

[Beagle]

But do you think they're up to the challenge. This, after the next few days of inevitable SP slaughter, could be the buy of 2016!

This is how I see it.
ANZ has them under a very tight chocker hold with strict conditions and set milestones to be achieved throughout the term of the existing facility to December 2017 and for all intents and purposes they're calling all the shots. If those milestones are not met, (company admits they're challenging but achievable), you will be aware that there is the very real possibility that the ANZ will remove the life support.
Mall rents only go one way.
Legacy issues will dog them for years, (previous high leases they can't extricate themselves from)
Many people have tried and failed to turn this ship around before
Company has had the superb expertise of retail guru Rod Duke on the board but this hasn't helped to date, (this really worries me)
Proliferation of more and bigger malls won't help with traffic volume to existing site's
They're really up against it with the exchange rate and this is a fairly new thing which only started this year and I think the currency is lower for a lot longer
Relentless trend toward internet shopping
Widespread proliferation of cheaper brands e.g. Cotton On
Slower economic conditions will drive customers towards cheaper brands
Unproven new team working with one hand tied behind their back by ANZ, undercapitalised and losing market share
Loss of brand recognition amongst new generation mothers through lack of spend on advertising means it lends itself more toward grandparent's buying for nostalgic reasons

They face what amounts to a truly daunting set of challenges in my opinion. If you're going to have a go mate keep it small as I think its fair to say any investment in this company is highly speculative and the odds on meaningful value accretion to shareholders in the long run is slim.
Market cap is currently $20m...I don't think they're worth that.

[Crackity]

But do you think they're up to the challenge. This, after the next few days of inevitable SP slaughter, could be the buy of 2016!

I'd be happy to put them in my 2016 stock picking portfolio but not in my real portfolio.....

I think Rogs summation is accurate.

[winner69]

Asked whether he had access to enough capital to execute the plans Luke said '"The capital that we expect to generate that's available is about half what I need over that three to four year period."

That's how tight the rein is - held by ANZ

[winner69]

Luke also said ""I believe our customer and brand propositions remain relevant"

"I believe" is ok .....but do customers think the 'propositions' are relevant? I don't believe so

[percy]

Once the FIZZ is out of the bottle you can't get it back in.
Goner.!

[h2so4]

Yep. I'm afraid this baby has gone with the bath water.

[Beagle]

Asked whether he had access to enough capital to execute the plans Luke said '"The capital that we expect to generate that's available is about half what I need over that three to four year period."

That's how tight the rein is - held by ANZ

Hence the phrase I used "chocker hold". I know its naughty but I can't help speculating what happens if the result in March is below even ANZ's expectations which I suspect is highly likely. Do they straight to receivership or have a managed wind down where the ANZ totally takes over control of the chequebook ? Got 3 grandkids now, might be some good shopping opportunities in April. The management team will be under a great deal of stress for the foreseeable future. In many ways I admire them for at least giving it 110% and trying to right the ship in what is surely a "Titanic" type situation. The chances of a sucessful capital raise in this sort of environment ?...I can't see it happening.

[IAK]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11598216

The banks will be sweating on this one "Pumpkin Patch is blaming adverse currency movements and further declines in its international wholesale business as it warns profit for the first half of the year will be just a fifth of what it achieved a year earlier".

No hope.