Xro - xero

[Toasty]

I've been thinking, this isn't the right website for you DJAB. Perhaps you should discover the joys of sh@reinv3stornz.blogspot.com and a fine chap, who you would like very much called Darren Rickard, under a pseudonym called "Bongo". He even has a forum at www.sh@reinv3storforum.com where you can participate more fully. (replace @ with a and 3 with e due to autoblocking by moderators)

You should stop using the DJAB moniker as well - clearly you need "Bentley" as your user name.

Years ago, an individual, much more wealthy than you and I, in fact wealthier than 4.5m other New Zealanders, once said to me after I experienced a small setback in my life :

"Sparky, you need to understand something. There are a lot of f*ckwits out there. Everywhere you look, you can find f*ckwits. You need to live your life accordingly".

I have followed his advice to a tee over these last 3 years. I have profited enormously, both in a financial and personal sense from a f*ckwit free existence. And I don't intend to stop.

So please. Maybe this isn't the right website for you. Go spend time with Darren Rickard instead. Bentley and Bongo need each other.

Lol Sparky. Can't read that second attachment though.

[Toasty]

Wow, you're really arrogant aren't you? Who died and made you forum monitor? You don't own this place, buddy. Although given the frequency and style of your contributions here, I think you think you do. I'll contribute on the same terms here as everyone else does. That is when I like and as I like to. And if you don't like that, tough titties.

The frequency and style of Sparkys contributions are very much appreciated. Yours however...not so much.

[lastmoa]

Back to Xero and the NZ tech stocks.

Lack of buying support for Xero shares bodes poorly in the short term for Diligent as well (I hold DIL which was down almost 4% today). However, the fundamentals of Xero (the company) remain reasonably strong. They have big name shareholders who back the vision, loads of cash in the bank, an excited developer community, and an ecosystem of other SaaS companies and Xero add-on providers. Those are all positives which should see Xero battle on long enough to gain US market share - the holy grail for them.

In the short term, a sustained drop from Xero might also take the gloss off the very shortly listing SLI Systems, which like Xero is raising money to help grow over the next few years at the expense of profits.

I hear through the grapevine there has been strong takeup by institutions and the public of SLI's offering.

It would be a shame if it launched under a cloud due to a big dip in Xero.

Disc: Not applying for any SLI, holding DIL, not holding Xero.

Agree Sparky. I don't think I will participate in the SLI offering. Had a brief look at what they propose, and although I somewhat see potential here, I am trying to build holdings in others that I see more promise in. Plus I already have Xero, Diligent, PEB and couple of exciting Aust stock to keep on top of. Only 24hrs in a day. 8-)
Thanks for getting this board back on track. Think you ruffled DJAB which is not what we want to do. Don't want to waste my time wading thru personal abuse messages - achieves nothing. Like you all I want is constructive comment rather than some 'sky is falling' remark.

[RazorX]

Wow, you're really arrogant aren't you? Who died and made you forum monitor? You don't own this place, buddy. Although given the frequency and style of your contributions here, I think you think you do. I'll contribute on the same terms here as everyone else does. That is when I like and as I like to. And if you don't like that, tough titties.

The key word here is "contributions" Sparky contributes. Some agree with what he says, some don't. Personally I find his posts very interesting, informative and well thought out.

I agree with the other members who don't consider that you are actually contributing. (Reminds me of another member actually)

Anyways that not what I came here for. I wanted to put in my two pence on Xero. I don't hold it. (But I wish I did!)

I have been watching Xero for years because I am an accountant... so naturally interested in the product. I love it, recommend it to customers. However it has stayed out of my portfolio for one reason: It's making losses. My thoughts were that the SP would dally around until it actually turned a profit, at which time I'd reassess. I watched as it went through 2.50 thinking why? $5 why? $10 someones crazy. $15 yesterday the world has gone mad, someone is going to be burned (I actaully said that to my collegue yesterday) there's got to be a correction.

So my view is based mainly on TA. I havn't seen anything yet that changes by FA opinion of Xero. Yes they are doing well, but I like to see some profits being made. Don't want to see divis paid out of loans. Based on my understanding of TA and market psychology there was due to be a correction, and a fairly big one. I think the SP has gone up based primarily on excitment and emotion (Another reason I have stayed away from the stock). I'd 'expect' a correction to continue and if I was in this stock I'd be using Fib levels to see where it might find support, if I was planning to hold or looking to see if I should sell. Truth be told, had I bought the stock it would have been a trade not investment, and I would have sold out long ago.

Thumbs up to those of you who did well out of this, and we can only hope Xero isn't the next Rakon and leave those folks who bought at $15 high and dry.

[Edit: Just in case someone comes up with a great hindsight post comment - I have been having these thoughts for months, years even - they didn't pop into my head at 5pm today after looking at XRO's SP Ask the folks at work ]

[lastmoa]

The key word here is "contributions" Sparky contributes. Some agree with what he says, some don't. Personally I find his posts very interesting, informative and well thought out.

I agree with the other members who don't consider that you are actually contributing. (Reminds me of another member actually)

Anyways that not what I came here for. I wanted to put in my two pence on Xero. I don't hold it. (But I wish I did!)

I have been watching Xero for years because I am an accountant... so naturally interested in the product. I love it, recommend it to customers. However it has stayed out of my portfolio for one reason: It's making losses. My thoughts were that the SP would dally around until it actually turned a profit, at which time I'd reassess. I watched as it went through 2.50 thinking why? $5 why? $10 someones crazy. $15 yesterday the world has gone mad, someone is going to be burned (I actaully said that to my collegue yesterday) there's got to be a correction.

So my view is based mainly on TA. I havn't seen anything yet that changes by FA opinion of Xero. Yes they are doing well, but I like to see some profits being made. Don't want to see divis paid out of loans. Based on my understanding of TA and market psychology there was due to be a correction, and a fairly big one. I think the SP has gone up based primarily on excitment and emotion (Another reason I have stayed away from the stock). I'd 'expect' a correction to continue and if I was in this stock I'd be using Fib levels to see where it might find support, if I was planning to hold or looking to see if I should sell. Truth be told, had I bought the stock it would have been a trade not investment, and I would have sold out long ago.

Thumbs up to those of you who did well out of this, and we can only hope Xero isn't the next Rakon and leave those folks who bought at $15 high and dry.

[Edit: Just in case someone comes up with a great hindsight post comment - I have been having these thoughts for months, years even - they didn't pop into my head at 5pm today after looking at XRO's SP Ask the folks at work ]

RazorX - Thanks for your viewpoint. From what I can see for Xero to turn a profit it could turn off expansion in USA/Uk and pretty much everywhere outside of Australiasia and also stop hiring all new developers and supporting staff. It would then purely be directed competition to MYOB and of course I would expect it's market cap, and resultant SP, to be trimmed accordingly. Of note is that MYOB had a market cap of around $1.2 billion nearly 2 years ago.
I prefer the 'pedal to the metal' approach that Drury has taken (so it seems do Morgan and Thiel), and understand that all share investors have varying willingnesses towards risk. If Xero does achieve it's ambitious goal of 1 million customers before it burns through its cash hoard then full credit to them and congrats to the investors that backed the dream. If not, at least they stepped into the arena. Time will tell.

[Snow Leopard]

PT, how did you come up with that number? My was a gut "sharp rise / no info / take the money" sort of thing. Your logic? Much appreciated.

Attachment 4486

So the black line is the XRO daily close for the last six months and the four beneath are 'Exponential Trailing Stops' for which the magic numbers are:
4% and 32 days
8% and 16 days
12% and 8 days
16% and 4 days

Instead of rising immediately to some % from the days action they move exponentially up towards their (moving) target.

With XRO attempting to break the Earths gravitational field recently these stops have:
got inverted - the 16% is higher than the 12% etc;
left reasonable room for manoeuvre for a bit of sanity (relatively speaking) such as today/yesterday.

The highest of the four is now sitting at $11.77.

Now if I had bought recently I would have a stop about 8% below my purchase price and would be watching carefully at open tomorrow.

Note I manually act on stop signals and I use a bit of FA/gut instinct/dice throws to decide which of the four to act on.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[GRIFFIN]

I think if i had bought into XRO in recent weeks i would be very much in the nervous nellies camp.

[CJ]

I just checked the charts and Xro plummeted to levels not seen since 4 days ago!!!!.

With the US off today, it will be interesting to see how many more days of gains will be wiped off.

[Jay]

Also did not mention that Xero has not made a profit yet and did not really emphasize Dilligent is,
however both were mentioned as possible takeovers

[Toasty]

Is it fair to say that I have lost 100% on my investment ... because it dropped from 1400% to 1300%?