Xro - xero

[BFG]

On an aside, BFG how do you determine something is a bubble? Do you just look at SP performance and call it on that or do you genuinely try to value the business?

How do you determine something is a bubble? Some would say you cannot do this until a bubble has burst. That is fundamentally untrue. We could all see the run up in PEB & XRO were unjustifiable, at least near term, and was quite obvious afterwards. But we could see that a PS ratio of over 500 for PEB and a PE of -140 was fundamental insanity. Didn't stop some of us from riding the greater fool theory upwards though.

LNG is no different and only seems like its different because it hasn't imploded yet and Cheniere in the USA has become before it. The company won't have any revenue until 2018 at thr earliest. If it can stay up that long I will be truly amazed as there is no way to earn a return from it other than through capital gains, and stocks don't go up forever!

In summation, the only thing keeping these stocks up once they are divorced from reality is the belief of "building castles in the sky". Once that belief is gone and thete is no real value to be placed on the stock, it implodes. So yes, they can be spotted AND timed, but you need to be VERY watchful if you decidr to join in!

[Intel]

Man that's so random I totally see how the demand for 7 million shares sent the SP upwards as per the fundamental laws of economics. It's just so crazy how it wasn't the actual inclusion but rather the hype leading up to the fateful day where 7m shares traded and the stock closed down for the day and fell downwards. I can totally see your point.

Kind of like LNG in similar circumstances. Although, quite contrary to the notion that these laws of economics guarantee the absence of supply will make the SP go up, here we see the volumes are below average until the fateful day. Then, amazingly, the average volumes are beaten down as the SP falls. I would have thought, as with XRO, the high SP and the lack of supply would make it go higher.

It's almost as thought you're calling it a sure thing when it's not actually a sure thing.

Look,

It's a genuine strategy and can be picked apart if you continually search for examples which undermine it. Playing Averages makes you money and was the reason I shared what I know.

It's a view based on a lot of research I have done and statistically abnormal returns can be acheived by trading in the manner I explained. This is a successful strategy and one that many people make money off.

AnywaI I'll leave it at that.

[Intel]

How do you determine something is a bubble? Some would say you cannot do this until a bubble has burst. That is fundamentally untrue. We could all see the run up in PEB & XRO were unjustifiable, at least near term, and was quite obvious afterwards. But we could see that a PS ratio of over 500 for PEB and a PE of -140 was fundamental insanity. Didn't stop some of us from riding the greater fool theory upwards though.

LNG is no different and only seems like its different because it hasn't imploded yet and Cheniere in the USA has become before it. The company won't have any revenue until 2018 at thr earliest. If it can stay up that long I will be truly amazed as there is no way to earn a return from it other than through capital gains, and stocks don't go up forever!

In summation, the only thing keeping these stocks up once they are divorced from reality is the belief of "building castles in the sky". Once that belief is gone and thete is no real value to be placed on the stock, it implodes. So yes, they can be spotted AND timed, but you need to be VERY watchful if you decidr to join in!

Hahahaha LNG is completely different to PEB and XRO, It's an infrastructure project that is so easy to value and will continue towards that valuation as the project de risks. This is honestly investing 101

That doesn't mean the project can't go ahead for unforeseen reasons. But it definitely doesn't make it a bubble.

I also think your getting confused with bubble and simply overvalued

[BFG]

Look,

It's a genuine strategy and can be picked apart if you continually search for examples which undermine it. Playing Averages makes you money and was the reason I shared what I know.

It's a view based on a lot of research I have done and statistically abnormal returns can be acheived by trading in the manner I explained. This is a successful strategy and one that many people make money off.

AnywaI I'll leave it at that.

Returns are normally positive (negative) for index inclusion (exclusion).

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=INdex+inclusion+returns

[BFG]

Hahahaha LNG is completely different to PEB and XRO, It's an infrastructure project that is so easy to value and will continue towards that valuation as the project de risks. This is honestly investing 101

That doesn't mean the project can't go ahead for unforeseen reasons. But it definitely doesn't make it a bubble.

What if LNG flows get shut off? What if it's no longer profitable to export? They have land worth about $20M at all 3 sites. That's what the mCap wpuld end up being! And don't say it isn't possible. Cheniere was very close to being destroyed because of the import game and multiple giants have offloaded their LNG projects.

Careful out there mate. It's never "different this time"...

[Intel]

What if LNG flows get shut off? What if it's no longer profitable to export? They have land worth about $20M at all 3 sites. That's what the mCap wpuld end up being! And don't say it isn't possible. Cheniere was very close to being destroyed because of the import game and multiple giants have offloaded their LNG projects.

Careful out there mate. It's never "different this time"...

All businesses come with risk, it's how you assess them and value them. I don't for a second dismiss those things couldn't happen however I believe the risk of that is minimal and why I feel value is there. If you new more about valuation you would realise that those risks are a function of your discount rate and reflected in value.

Currently there is gas and there is an arbitrage and I foresee those being around for a while. We only know what we know and I know enough currently to be sitting pretty happy. Should the information change I would adjust my view. Anyway this is not the place for LNG chatter. It's the XRO Thread.

[BFG]

All businesses come with risk, it's how you assess them and value them. I don't for a second dismiss those things couldn't happen however I believe the risk of that is minimal and why I feel value is there. If you new more about valuation you would realise that those risks are a function of your discount rate and reflected in value.

Currently there is gas and there is an arbitrage and I foresee those being around for a while. We only know what we know and I know enough currently to be sitting pretty happy. Should the information change I would adjust my view. Anyway this is not the place for LNG chatter. It's the XRO Thread.

I cannot agree with you re minimal risk. See last comment. Unbelievable risk there at current valuations!

I have also benefitted from sentiments. However, lately there has been a large sentiment change to the negative. That, imho, is the biggest factor in valuing bubbles and timing an exit. Doesn't matter whether it's XRO, PEB, GEO, SNK, VML, LNG, TNG, SYR, TON, GRK, AMZN or TWTR or any other plethora of ticker codes. Because there is no rational value holding them up, they all end up the same direction once that wind changes: DOWN.

[Santiago]

Good to see that while we're all talking around in circles, they're doing some work and moving forward...

https://nzx.com/companies/XRO/announcements/257308

[Harvey Specter]

Good to see that while we're all talking around in circles, they're doing some work and moving forward...

https://nzx.com/companies/XRO/announcements/257308

yes - good acquisition and not too expensive in the scheme of things

[Santiago]

yes - good acquisition and not too expensive in the scheme of things

Absolutely- if the people and IP they have acquired take them forward to full and comprehensive US payroll coverage in under a year, it'll be worth gold dust.