SUM - Summerset Group

[Joshuatree]

Thanks for sharing your number crunch Roger and thoughts Agree re hard finding value in the quality stocks atm.

[couta1]

After the meeting and discussion with Julian Cook I have done some work on where I see the profit for the current year.
Based on the projected increase in build rate and some increase in the development margin I see EPS growth of 25-30% this year and next and my best guess is this sort of growth rate is sustainable for a few years more before reducing into the lower twenty percent range.
I estimate underlying profit of $28m for 2014 for EPS of 13 cents per share. This puts SUM on a current year PE of 27 which seems quite resonable when they're growing at the same rate...i.e. a PEG ratio of 1 based on current years earnings.
Unlike the movement in the last year (SP only up 10% when underlying earnings increased 46%) I see no reason why the circa 27% growth in EPS shouldn't translate to an equilivent increase in SP, so my price target for next years AGM is $4.50.

I am really struggling to find value elsewhere that's going to show consistent growth so I rebalanced back up into this company today.

Good on ya mate looks like were rebalancing in different directions you probably bought some of my shares at $3.54 I did pick up quite a few more HNZ though so going in the same direction there I'm going to play with Ryman with the balance of funds, look forward to next years AGM will take you for a blast in the big block before the bar that is

[iceman]

After the meeting and discussion with Julian Cook I have done some work on where I see the profit for the current year.
Based on the projected increase in build rate and some increase in the development margin I see EPS growth of 25-30% this year and next and my best guess is this sort of growth rate is sustainable for a few years more before reducing into the lower twenty percent range.
I estimate underlying profit of $28m for 2014 for EPS of 13 cents per share. This puts SUM on a current year PE of 27 which seems quite resonable when they're growing at the same rate...i.e. a PEG ratio of 1 based on current years earnings.
Unlike the movement in the last year (SP only up 10% when underlying earnings increased 46%) I see no reason why the circa 27% growth in EPS shouldn't translate to an equilivent increase in SP, so my price target for next years AGM is $4.50.

I am really struggling to find value elsewhere that's going to show consistent growth so I rebalanced back up into this company today.

Thanks Roger. I have been doing same following the AGM.
I ended up with an underlying profit prediction of $ 28.5M for 2014 and $ 36.6M for 2015, up from $ 22m in 2013. There appears to be little reason why the SP shouldn't follow unless the market will rate it with a lower PE than it currently does.
Based on the dividend guidelines of 30-50% of underlying profit, we should see divies increased by 25-30% in each of the next few years.
The number I am struggling with is the development margin but I tried to work on the assumption it would grow to 13% in 2014 and 15% in 2015. But a bit of a stab in the dark that one !

[Beagle]

Thanks guys...yeah I was feeling a bit light on the stock at the AGM and yes Couta, mate we should really have traded those between us off market LOL. BIG BLOCK here we come, you're on !

Hey Iceman, Mate we're on the same page, great minds think alike Its a fairly young company and I think as time goes on the institutions and the market in general will become more comfortable with its growth track record and if anything its possible given the relative underperformance of the SP over the last year could reverse itself. (Its pretty bizarre that a stock growing EPS at 46% last year lead to a SP increase of only 10%) so I forsee the potential for a slight PE expansion as the company builds its credibility over the next few years.

Newguy, you couldn't just edit the last bit of that sentence could you...I feel bad enough already LOL.

[blocker3]

My rationale is that SUM will one day be as big and profitable as RYM is now. When it is, its market cap should also roughly equal RYM's current cap (all other things being equal). The question, then, is how long will this take and what are the corresponding capital gains to be had?

According to my back of the envelope, SUM will get there in about 6 to 7 years and its SP will be $20. Worth holding on for IMHO!

I can not disagree with your post Newguy.At the end of the day,I would have to concur with your thoughts.

Over that last 2 years Summerset has had a very smooth 120 day MA uptrend. Smooth as you can get which is really good. Im a Summerset holder .
Cheers Blocker

[Goldstein]

Ginger_steps,
I'm not going to go through and look at all of Couta1's posts. But off the top of my head (from this thread)
(i) he went to SUM's AGM and reported back
(ii) he contacted his sources about the Q1 sales figures recently and again reported back

IMHO, all information is good information - it's up to each investor to decide how they use that information. Couta1 does not hide his mistakes, so he is not a threat to newbies.

I really don't want to get into this anymore on the forum. You are showing just how elitist you are with your comment about temp nursing. Feel free to vent your frustration to me in a PM.

[777]

Ginger-steps butt out. You a Johnny-come-lately twerp.

[couta1]

Thanks Goldstein and others I'm not going to bother answering this person let others judge the tone of his posts for themselves we have our very own judge Judy right here on the forum who demands info and hands down his sentence to those that don't comply, very sad IMO

[Beagle]

PM sent to ginger steps..

[Zouga]

I am the newest of newbies and I find every post in this forum interesting and useful as I navigate the intricacies of both technical analysis and fundamental analysis . I have bought SUM and think I will hold and buy more. Thank you Couta and others for your comments which have certainly added richness to my learning experience.