SUM - Summerset Group

[Lewylewylewy]

NTA/SP looks a bit nicer with SUM, but I have no idea which can get better leverage and locations (which is what property is about) or ROI / upsell / services (which i think is what returned villages are about, but I know little of the subject).

I'd be very interested to hear people's ideas about which they think is better out of all the villages. Also what the merits of each one are in your opinion..

[Beagle]

Share price in the late 3's here we come. Underwhelming result and do not hold sum 5/4/16

I'd say there will a bit of weakness in sp, I'm out and prepared to wait for a better buying opportunity. Each to there own 5/4/16.

yep I see 3.80-4.00 Soon 6/4/16

Seeing as you're so keen to so thoroughly articulate your viewpoint have you got any analysis you'd care to share on the relative valuation of SUM compared to RYM and MET ?

[Food4Thought]

I don't see SUM dropping 10%

[OldGuy]

Seeing as you're so keen to so thoroughly articulate your viewpoint have you got any analysis you'd care to share on the relative valuation of SUM compared to RYM and MET ?

LOL, yeah right (Tui)

[Food4Thought]

LOL, yeah right (Tui)

Analysis would be great

P.s, my 10% drop is from the value of $4.40 btw.
It could happen, I just don't find it that likely, how ever I will still hold if this happens.

[couta1]

I will put up a post tonight as to why i dont believe Sum is better buying than Ryman at current prices, no time to do it justice right now.

Okay so here we go, first can I say you won't go wrong investing in any of the big three although I think Met has run ahead of itself at around $5.30 due to it being demographically challenged plus owning an older stock of buildings on average than the other two. Basically Sum is a junior Ryman with Ryman being the pack leader and I believe this will always be the case. Sum and Met have had good runs over the last year while Rymans price has been basically stagnant for the last couple of years but remember before that it had a relatively quick run from $4 to over $9. Roger asks when is Ryman due for its next run? and my answer is soon and I predict it will go over $9 over the next while . Let me quote Simon Challies from the latest Ryman Times "We've got a busy year ahead and we are already off to a flying start.I can't remember a busier period in the history of the company with four new villages in Petone,Pukekohe,Rangiora and Birkenhead opening this year. Hang on to your hats folks because it's going to be a great year" So there we have it from the horse's mouth, add to that the compounding effect from Aussie and some may be able to understand why I'm bullish plus don't forget those four villages are all big at around 440 resident capacity. For those astute day watchers you will have noticed that $8.30 has become a solid support level having been challenged a few times over the last few weeks including today yet holding. So you see I don't believe right now that Sum is better buying, in fact I think the opposite due to Rymans overdue runup, bring it on I say

[Beagle]

Thanks for sharing mate. For people who are fairly new on here or don't know already, Couta1 has an in depth understanding of the retirement sector because he and his wife consult / work in it.

Agree that Ryman is the premier stock without any question but I am unsure as to when it will break out of its trading range to the upside. It was just on $9.00 two years ago so the last couple of years have certainly tested loyal holders patience a little.

[oldtech]

Agreed, thanks couta1.

I am fairly new to Sharetrader, have small holdings in seven different NZ companies, and looking to the possibility of adding either SUM or RYM as I have no holdings in this sector. So very interested to learn from far more experienced investors and understand your reasonings as to why one company might be preferable to another before I make any decisions.

[Food4Thought]

Agreed, thanks couta1.

I am fairly new to Sharetrader, have small holdings in seven different NZ companies, and looking to the possibility of adding either SUM or RYM as I have no holdings in this sector. So very interested to learn from far more experienced investors and understand your reasoning as to why one company might be preferable to another before I make any decisions.

Have been following Shares since I was at College 15+ years ago with a keen eye on performance and future potential. I didn't enjoy reading the posts on SUM with a high buy in and a unfortunate exit (too early) when the fan was hit and it all went belly up for a brief moment for a what I would class as a long term approach. RYM needs to make some impressive gains to make a big run, and it could do it. More likely that SUM (which I hold and follow with keen interest) will get more buy in, and interest from over the Tasman (Australia) is also growing at a healthy pace.

Your decision will be best done by looking at the performance of the companies and their value vs the risk/reward. SWOT analysis will be helpful and also considering the business and how they operate. Market sentiment was damaged by SUM CEO actions, seems this was a observed and taken on board mistake by the company.

Best of luck in making your decision, there are certainly good solid long term opportunities here, which for me, seem a lot more probable than money in the bank with current interest rates etc

[Bjauck]

And thanks too from me to couta and Roger.

I refer again to the 4.5 yr Rym Met and Sum SP chart I posted previously. SP charts always vary depending on arbitrary start points. I chose that period because it was when SUM listed. Since then, RYM and SUM have increased in price by the same percent. So if RYM is the premier stock, has the longer track history of consistent performance, with Aus putting it another nose ahead of SUM and some investors' psyche thinking it's due for another run-up, are the stars aligning for RYM?