SUM - Summerset Group

[percy]

Thank you Percy - The trend is my friend... I will wait patiently. I do know this pattern prior to Christmas of selling to fund holidays. I can't wait for next results season and the trend to reverse in the up swing. Some may need a reminder - Long term.

In the short term - wishing everyone on Sharetrader a safe and merry festive season.

SUM is sound ,it is well managed and it is in a sector with huge tail winds.
So the share price goes up and it is a market darling.Then the tide turns, and people want out.All the time the business just continues to get on with it,and it grows.
That is the share market.
So just wait for the trend change.It will happen,but when ? We will just have to wait for the right signals from the charts.
SUM is so well followed on Sharetrader, I am sure posters will advise us when the trend has reversed.
Then we will all be onboard, and then the chart will signal the uptrend is confirmed.!!,,lol.

[skid]

Nice one skid, but nah I'm not worried after all my portfolio is only down 221k as we speak, was 330k a couple of months ago but yes it has dropped down over the last week or so. I cannot take responsibility for Lemmings, Sheeple or those who want to fund extravagant lifestyles over the holiday season by selling shares aye. If I had spare cash I'd be like a pig in a trough snapping up all these bargins on the NZX currently, I'm feeling dizzy just thinking about such lost opportunity.

Just a Christmas Dig----It would take more than the Dark Knight to get you worried (whats a couple hundred K among friends anyway)

[couta1]

Just a Christmas Dig----It would take more than the Dark Knight to get you worried (whats a couple hundred K among friends anyway)

Exactly, and as long as your wife and dog still love you and you can go fishing, then there's not much to worry about.

[Hoop]

On the 30th of September I posted (post #268) a Sum chart together with KW's methodologies (She uses TA with long(er) term investment bias)...
I use a medium term TA methodology (TA indicator default settings are medium term)..which would have seen me exit SUM a few days after I wrote the post..The longer term investors hang around until the MA200 break..

I will update the SUM chart when I get time as a lot has happened since 29th September..

However, in brief the upward sloping H&S pattern has seen its neck broken, that's bad news..and it looks like SUM is entering into a primary down trend.. For the optimists a bottoming is still possible but hopes are fading..

But it's no worries......especially so for the TA investors as they are cashed up and lurking like a vulture awaiting re-enty....

[percy]

While you are "lurking",others are "loitering" with intent,!...lol.

[winner69]

The selling is relentless ....and the down trend continues

About 20% off it's recent highs

At this rate something with a 3 in front beckons

[couta1]

The selling is relentless ....and the down trend continues

About 20% off it's recent highs

At this rate something with a 3 in front beckons

But that's only half price winner, doubt very much you'll see a 3 in front, not many trading days left now before sellers minds are drawn to other activities and then of course we have Q4 sales metrics due before Jan 10th coupled with the start of the fair winds of January starting to blow, no worries.

[winner69]

But that's only half price winner, doubt very much you'll see a 3 in front, not many trading days left now before sellers minds are drawn to other activities and then of course we have Q4 sales metrics due before Jan 10th coupled with the start of the fair winds of January starting to blow, no worries.

And hopefully some brokers will now put SUM in as one of their picks for 2017

That always boosts the shareprice over Christmas / New Year period

[James108]

Is that historical or assumed future house price inflation or a bit of both?

I presume you have done the sums on the percent increase in the value of existing stock that they have applied.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

You are quite right in that historic house price inflation has essentially locked in (unless there is a large reversal) increases in gain on resale and deferred management fees in the medium term, and development margin in the short term. I have not done the sums on any increase in value of existing stock, however my estimates of future cash flow certainly takes this into account.

The thing with Summerset is that things like increasing the build rate and increase in value of property make a positive impact on cash flows for quite a few years after the event.

In regards to house price inflation, to illustrate, according to my model (which is at best a slightly educated guess) going from 3% house and building cost inflation to 4% has a valuation impact of 15%.

Having said all that I am not comfortable buying Sum at this price. Don't give a monkeys what the so called technical analysis is doing however.

[Grunter]

Interesting - I think the sell off has been triggered by concerns about house price inflation - which bar Auckland is still reporting in as being very very strong.

Also the downtrend is on low volumes. Days where the shareprice recovers are characterised by large volumes. Conclusion: retail investors cashing out for xmas, institutions snapping them up?