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13-01-2017, 07:11 PM
#3991
Giday ..Im a little confused..Why this preoccupation with house prices...Ive been around a while..I thought it was a given that folk will continue to by rest home facilities...largely irrespective of house prices ...am I wrong ?
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13-01-2017, 07:36 PM
#3992
 Originally Posted by troyvdh
Giday ..Im a little confused..Why this preoccupation with house prices...Ive been around a while..I thought it was a given that folk will continue to by rest home facilities...largely irrespective of house prices ...am I wrong ?
As always you are exactly right.!
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13-01-2017, 08:56 PM
#3993
Originally Posted by troyvdh
Giday ..Im a little confused..Why this preoccupation with house prices...Ive been around a while..I thought it was a given that folk will continue to by rest home facilities...largely irrespective of house prices ...am I wrong ?
Because there is some correlation between house prices and how much they can sell/resell units for.
This impacts development margin, gain on resale and deferred management fees. These are 3 of the 4 ways that summerset make money (the other being care fees paid weekly).
Therefore the price they can sell units at is imo THE most important factor outside of Summersets direct control. By extension average house price is extremely important.
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13-01-2017, 10:43 PM
#3994
Originally Posted by James108
Because there is some correlation between house prices and how much they can sell/resell units for.
This impacts development margin, gain on resale and deferred management fees. These are 3 of the 4 ways that summerset make money (the other being care fees paid weekly).
Therefore the price they can sell units at is imo THE most important factor outside of Summersets direct control. By extension average house price is extremely important.
Personally I see SUM as a long term investment. With population of 65+ more than doubling over the next 30 years I'm not sure how you can go wrong. House prices may slow significantly for a while, but they'll be worth more in 10 years than they are now I assure you.
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17-01-2017, 10:23 AM
#3995
House prices rise. ....so says the headline on December REINZ data
https://www.reinz.co.nz/Media/Defaul...r%202016-1.pdf
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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17-01-2017, 10:42 AM
#3996
Well, yes ... paper is patient ...
If you look at the latest QV report (I assume the base for REINZ data as well), than you see that house prices did raise on an annual basis, but dropped in most areas on a monthly basis. This - and the fact that volume is dropping seems to indicate that we sort of reached the peak (or are already over it).
Not sure whether I expect a steep drop from here (for that demand is just too high and supply too little), but I think we will be in for some years of sidewards moving house prices (and potentially a slight drop in many areas and a potential crash in hyped up areas like Queenstown).
No crisis for SUM and the other retirement village operators, but their earnings over the next handful of years might lack the friendly support of valuation gains ...
----
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
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17-01-2017, 11:49 AM
#3997
Originally Posted by BlackPeter
Well, yes ... paper is patient ...
If you look at the latest QV report (I assume the base for REINZ data as well), than you see that house prices did raise on an annual basis, but dropped in most areas on a monthly basis. This - and the fact that volume is dropping seems to indicate that we sort of reached the peak (or are already over it).
Not sure whether I expect a steep drop from here (for that demand is just too high and supply too little), but I think we will be in for some years of sidewards moving house prices (and potentially a slight drop in many areas and a potential crash in hyped up areas like Queenstown).
No crisis for SUM and the other retirement village operators, but their earnings over the next handful of years might lack the friendly support of valuation gains ...
IMO outside markets will have the most affect on both property prices and shares
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17-01-2017, 02:57 PM
#3998
Member
it's true. i am looking to buy a house in the future. so i am consistently monitor the Auckland house price.
at the peak (about Aug2016) any households that are acceptable for me are over 880k
now it's became around 780k.
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17-01-2017, 03:17 PM
#3999
Originally Posted by stevevai1983
it's true. i am looking to buy a house in the future. so i am consistently monitor the Auckland house price.
at the peak (about Aug2016) any households that are acceptable for me are over 880k
now it's became around 780k.
Jeez - >10% down
House prices collapsing (in Auckland)?
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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17-01-2017, 04:53 PM
#4000
Originally Posted by winner69
Jeez - >10% down
House prices collapsing (in Auckland)?
Id be surprised if that was indicative of the Auckland market in general..guess its worth checking
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