SUM - Summerset Group

[Ggcc]

It was a she and she seemed very sincere. She mentioned there were loads of extra costs involved in housing dementia patients. She also mentioned Australia was really taking off for Ryman.

[Ggcc]

I am not unhappy about this share going up up and away, but is this not at the upper end of analysts forecasts?

[winner69]

I am not unhappy about this share going up up and away, but is this not at the upper end of analysts forecasts?

Do you believe analyst forecasts actually mean anything?

[Beagle]

Analysts haven't upgraded for Norah leaving.

[winner69]

Analysts haven't upgraded for Norah leaving.

If cgcc is worried about the price getting close to analyst forecasts he might be thinking of selling and locking in profits.

[Ggcc]

Exactly correct winner. If it gets too high I may consider selling. We all saw what happened to Ryman when it went to $9+ per share. I bet plenty of people wished they sold then in hindsight.

[Beagle]

Ryman at over $9 at the time, over 2 years ago represented a company trading on a forward PE IIRC of 31 based on underlying earnings. SUM trading on a historical underlying PE of only 24 which is the cheapest its been in years and there's the distinct prospect of a substantial uplift in underlying profit this year as development ramps up from 300 units a year to 400, a 33% increase. All things being equal this should lead to a 33% SP increase this year, $4.30 to $5.72 and even then it would be trading on a reasonable PE for the sector.

If one takes the view that these retirement stocks should be based on IFRS reported profits incl of revaluation gains that happen almost without fail every year so there's a good argument that they should be included in normal earnings then SUM is trading on a record low historical PE of 11.2 times.

[winner69]

Exactly correct winner. If it gets too high I may consider selling. We all saw what happened to Ryman when it went to $9+ per share. I bet plenty of people wished they sold then in hindsight.

You going to make heaps more cgcc

Yahoo says guru analyst targets range from 449 to 515

Only one of those figures is anywhere near what will happen

Cgcc - what you reckon it worth?

[winner69]

You going to make heaps more cgcc

Yahoo says guru analyst targets range from 449 to 515

Only one of those figures is anywhere near what will happen

Cgcc - what you reckon it worth?

And roger reckons $5.72

And that's cheap when they make $120m odd this year

[Ggcc]

That is why I am asking I don't know? I am usually a longterm holder, but have found that holding long term without considering selling ends in lost profits. I am happy holding on what you have and Roger have mentioned. I realise that Summerset is in a growth stage and is developing well. I prefer capital gain over dividends as I am still working. When You look at the charts I see a snake slithering along the sand and potential profits that could have been made. That is why I think I need to consider a sell price