BLT - Blis Technologies

[emearg]

You have a point. But the school of hard knocks is an excellent school. They just had a tutorial on the fickleness of markets, that it is no customer's responsibility to provide you with regular income. The key to profits is to lock them in when you get them.

I reckon they have been held back a few years. Busy doing cabbage maths perhaps?

But yes, quite right.

I'm not in panic mode. Been riding this one long enough to know how things work. Slowly and without any certainty. Nothing to see here...

[EJK]

I didn't get any alerts or articles regarding to the drop this afternoon (-10.34% as of now).

Anyobody knows what's going on? What's the news?

[Leftfield]

I didn't get any alerts or articles regarding to the drop this afternoon (-10.34% as of now).

Anyobody knows what's going on? What's the news?

Check the depth. Approx 18,000 shares traded at this price, so IMHO hardly a major sell-off. That said BLT is trending down and has been for some time. Until there is good news this is a risky stock.

[simla]

Markets go down when there is a lack of buyers.

This company just turned in yet another loss. It gave no guidance at all as to future revenues or profits (other than an intention to have a profit this year), said "meaningful sales" in China are still in the "medium term" and projected nothing elsewhere that I saw, made no apology or explanation for the doubling of expenses in the last couple of years. It did mention launching "skin applications" next year but gave absolutely no detail on what or whether we should be excited or not. It still won't mention any disappointments (what happened to the rheumatic fever trial for instance?)

The most upbeat statement made seems to have been "With prudent investment, we believe there is a good balance between existing business support and pipeline development to realise the potential of our IP." Not exactly talking the market up.

By comparison:

WDT : "we had got our heads around achieving $50m in revenue, and over the next 5 years we could be well on our way to $100m."
ATM: "We’re on an extraordinary growth and transformational journey"
XRO: "Founder-led urgency, vision and passion"
MFT: "Larger multi‐national customers are increasingly becoming a part of our supply chain initiatives"
SPK: "We’re confident we can collectively rise to the challenge and continue to deliver for our customers, for you, our shareholders, and for New Zealand."

So, would you be buying BLT presently? Well, we know the answer because nobody much is. What we do not know is whether the company is not cheering us up because they have little to tell us or whether they are just really reticent to tell us stuff. And if that is just because one lawyer is telling them to play safe then I would urge them to get a second opinion, please!

I must say that I supported the company through many very tough years. I certainly did not anticipate that when the break even point finally arrived that it would become tough for shareholders simply because the company went mum.

[EJK]

Markets go down when there is a lack of buyers.

This company just turned in yet another loss. It gave no guidance at all as to future revenues or profits (other than an intention to have a profit this year), said "meaningful sales" in China are still in the "medium term" and projected nothing elsewhere that I saw, made no apology or explanation for the doubling of expenses in the last couple of years. It did mention launching "skin applications" next year but gave absolutely no detail on what or whether we should be excited or not. It still won't mention any disappointments (what happened to the rheumatic fever trial for instance?)

The most upbeat statement made seems to have been "With prudent investment, we believe there is a good balance between existing business support and pipeline development to realise the potential of our IP." Not exactly talking the market up.

By comparison:

WDT : "we had got our heads around achieving $50m in revenue, and over the next 5 years we could be well on our way to $100m."
ATM: "We’re on an extraordinary growth and transformational journey"
XRO: "Founder-led urgency, vision and passion"
MFT: "Larger multi‐national customers are increasingly becoming a part of our supply chain initiatives"
SPK: "We’re confident we can collectively rise to the challenge and continue to deliver for our customers, for you, our shareholders, and for New Zealand."

So, would you be buying BLT presently? Well, we know the answer because nobody much is. What we do not know is whether the company is not cheering us up because they have little to tell us or whether they are just really reticent to tell us stuff. And if that is just because one lawyer is telling them to play safe then I would urge them to get a second opinion, please!

I must say that I supported the company through many very tough years. I certainly did not anticipate that when the break even point finally arrived that it would become tough for shareholders simply because the company went mum.

Thanks for that. Kinda sounds like another Wynyard :-/

[simla]

No, I wouldn't compare it to WYN. Here was the WYN cash flow. https://www.nbr.co.nz/sites/default/....56%20AM_2.png

Whereas BLT ran a positive operating cash flow last year.

It seems to me that the problem is simply the lack of news. What are we expecting in the future? If you have actual quotes or data, then by all means post them!

[THEONE]

Hi Simla, I am still here reading your insightful posts thanks. I am back as shareholder now. With a Market Cap of about 30 million and lots of tax losses to use up. Surely they can make a few million profit within a few years. They almost made $700k last year. Bacteria is cheap to make. With meaningful sales in China this year. Not much as really changed since last year when shareprice was 6 cents.. If the shareprice was say 5 cents people wouldnt be so worried. But with the share price being less than 3 cents its all doom and gloom. Reminds me of the AIRNZ thread... Looks like there has been at least one desperate seller with a few million, which has depressed share price. The report was ok, seems like they are making good progress. Time will tell. Roger(AIRNZ) I know this is probably not your kind of share.. But would love your thorough analysis. Disclosure:This
is my opinion only, not financial advice. Do your own research. I have been known to be wrong often

[simla]

Hi, TheOne. Not-so-frequent voices are starting to gather here a bit now, so does that mean sentiment is turning? No knowing. Here's why it could matter though.

Required After-tax Profit for share price ?	PE = 15	PE = 45
Price = 2 cents	1.48m	0.49m
Price = 5 cents	3.69m	1.23m
Price = 10 cents	7.38m	2.46m
Price = 20 cents	14.76m	4.92m

* Check the maths yourself

Interesting, no? The first thing that stands out is how sensitive it is to the PE. And obviously the PE is sensitive to whether the market believes this company is going somewhere big. And that probably depends on either a string of great results or good communication from the company. Or the opposite.

Last year they forecast 0.7m profit. Okay, they did not get it but presumably this year they are aiming higher.

So if they announced in a few months/weeks that they are on track for a profit of say 1.35m (halfway between the 1.48m and the 1.23m figures above) then what are the shares worth? Well, if the market rated Blis as going somewhere big, then the shares are worth about 5 cents at a PE of 45. But if the market continues to doubt the future, then the shares are worth less than 2 cents with a PE of 15. I assume no tax payable presently due to old losses.

So is this like ATM when it was selling for a few cents and with a big future that was there if you looked? Or is this a company with only moderate growth prospects ahead that is already over priced even at 2 cents? Very interesting question and, no, I have no idea.

I've checked it but could be wrong so do your own maths. Obviously I'm a shareholder.

[RGR367]

Took 10 days for my order using their old website (no track and no trace) then to get delivered.
Took 2 days for my order the other day to arrive using their new website. Didn't even get to use or need to track and trace it.
So that's a hell of a lot of improvement.

[simla]

To be fair, Middle Earth is much easier to get to since Frodo and Gandalf defeated Sauron.