Investing strategies and secular bear markets

[Hoop]

Well the market didn't like that 0.25% points rate cut ...... maybe reality is coming home to roost

The next few days could be interesting

Hoop - whats your read of the situation?

Hi Winner
For some quirkey reason your post seemed to have appeared after my posting today, or I didn't notice it this morning.

If it was due to my inattentiveness then apologies to you is in order when I only responded to KW.

In answer to your question I honestly don't know.

Sorry... here comes the waffle...
I often refer back to history because the markets have a bad habit of repeating itself. As an example the DOW from 1999 to 2001 jumped all around the place (as it is doing now) for just over 2 years before the big one came (big correction or crash take your pick) late 2001 then the bear exited in 2003.
Even looking back in hindsight it is not easy to pick when that bear cycle actually begun as there were 4 corrections before the big one but I think it was the 4th one in 2001, however some might say it was the second one in 2000 followed by an extended period between Bull market (3) and wave A.
It is difficult to detect the end of bullmarket as each correction is followed by a rally and without hindsight one does not know if the bullmarket cycle has ended when each rally reaches a similar top point and each correction sort of respects the previous support or just breaks it and then moves up again (as the DOW is doing now). However analysts can read behaviour, double triple or even quadruple tops are bearish signs as it signifies volatility.
Bull market/bear markets wave theory illustrated in text books is easy to see and it is displays a sort of uniformly in a nice wave pattern, however in real life all sorts of patterns and durations may emerge and to complicate things even more it is not impossible to go from bullmarket(3) miss out the bear market(or a very very short bear duration) and wave straight back into Bull market(1)

This time around I think a bear will emerge if not all ready as the economy in America is going pear shaped.
The $64 question is will NZX see the bears... from recent history we escaped most of the dot com damage but at that time the NZ market was not in tandem with the DOW, this time we and the other major exchanges are.

Yes I will be watching the Dow with interest tomorrow morning.
I wouldn't be surprised if we are still experiencing the same scenario in several months time....equally I wouldn't be surprised if the guts fell out of the DOW tonight

I probably haven't answered your question Winner have I ??

Cheers Hoop