Investing strategies and secular bear markets

[Hoop]

The NZSX50 has dropped 3% since the warning.
I have cash up my weaker stocks, ahead of the fall.
Now I look at the overall picture of how far this correction goes.
The good news that there seems to be buying amongst the gloom in the DOW so commentators give us a 50% / 50% chance that the key support of 12800 will hold. This means another -2% to go at best.
The bad news is that the Nikkei is now a bear market.

I orginally focused on the DOW to look for the correction warning....I now focus on the NZSE50 graph as I mainly invest in NZ stocks as this becomes more important once the warning has be identified. Points to watch is the break in the 5yr trendline somewhere around the 4040 mark and more importantly the key 3900 support line. If NZ follows USA market then another -2% brings the NZ market to about 4020 and bouncing on the trendline but well within the 3900.
So to deduce the statistics, if the Dow holds up above the 12800, the NZSX50 is OK, and I may buy back my just sold weaker stocks, ( FBU and GPG ) and go on stock watch positive

If the DOW falls below the very important 12800 the NZSX has a -3% buffer before it breaks a key support. Then the all important support is at 3500. (-12%)

If the NZSX breaks the 3900 I will eye up my long term stocks and sell as they break their uptrend lines.

Stocks 65% Cash 35% ( should be cashed up more but awaiting half year reports).

[Hoop]

Dow back up past 13300 needs to be above 13500 before I become positive again that the latest correction has ended.

Good to see that both NZSX and FBU have had gains and have respected their trend lines.

Although I sold half of my holding in FBU at $11.69. and FBU seems to be bouncing back up again( $11.57), I still regard the saying "rather be a live coward than a dead hero". A lot of rumours flying around about a big correction waiting to happen...whether it happens or not is not the issue...the issue is that if one can pick the signals of an impending correction then one should react to it.

FBU back on my positive watch
GPG watching

[ratkin]

I force myself to buy when im not positive.

We all have a tendency to want to buy when feeling good about the markets , better to buy when full of gloom and doom. Not easy to do but i find it works better.

[Hoop]

I force myself to buy when im not positive.

We all have a tendency to want to buy when feeling good about the markets , better to buy when full of gloom and doom. Not easy to do but i find it works better.

I am not positive about this market. Yes I do buy in doom and gloom (bear market 3) but we are not in doom & gloom we are in heightened expectation at bull market 3 /bearmarket wave1, can not distinguish which at the moment, but I know from past experiences that I always seem to lose money in the BM3 phase and this one has been no different to me, except that I have indentified the historic signals and have reacted accordingly...therefore losing less than I would have otherwise by forcefully selling out earlier than I would've normally. This BM3/Wave 1 is a period when I hold thinking things will bounce back (as my stocks seem financially sound) and continue upwards only to be disappointed by my companies report back that due to outside factors they are not meeting there forward targets. RAK is a good example of this.

Overnight the DOW fell through a slight resistence and pyscological level of 13000 level...it wil now test the big primary support 12800. Likewise with FTSE and S&P all testing their primary support levels.
My gut feel is that these primary supports have a good chance of failing. OK I'm a pessimist, but their is no harm in selling as I can always buy back in.
Sold RAK yesterday at $4.48 for a small overall loss
Selling AMP (another of my major long term stocks)
The rest of my FBU is on negative watch
Gone from 13 to 7 stocks in my portfolio this year
50% cash

[Hoop]

Dow at the watershed...closed 12799. Where to from here...up or down. If down expect a harsh correction to 12000 ?? (another 7%)
Long weekend for them thanks giving tomorrow friday.
My Cash now at 54%.

[Hoop]

I personally think the DOW will go bear next week. I've cashed up more NZ stock with overseas exposure. Sold the rest of FBU and FPH
Mainly NZ exposure only stocks left
Cash 63% shares 37%

[Hoop]

From my 13 stocks in my portfolio just a couple of months ago I now have 5.

Many commentators(mostly chartists) have (the last few days) publically come out now announcing warnings. I did this on the 8th November. The fundamentists are still bullish believing the PE Ratios profits, etc, etc are at levels which would soften any downturn, if any,and the correctin will quickly turn around.
Personally PE Ratios mean "diddly squat" when people start talking about severe corrections and crashes. As history repeats itself I remind people that the Dow average PE Ratio has been as low as 4 and high as 42. It is at about 14 now and isn't far from its so called norm of 11 but you can't judge the norm as being normal when basing on buy/sell decisions by spooked investors. In times of high growth and optimism a PE of 20 looks cheap and in times of deep recession and gloom 10 may look expensive.

On Friday we saw the DOW rise on very low turnover (1/2 day of trade) I don't know the correct phrase but noticing the sell signals I would tend to believe that this is the sucker rally before the drop.

Commentators with very good facts and figures are showing up now, so it's best to see those numbers Phaedrus and Colin Twiggs are presenting. These two chartists should be listened to closely as I find they are correct most of the time in what they say, and at the moment they are singing the same tune.

It seems more certain the DOW will fall below it's primary support of 12800. If it happens a double top is formed and this is bearish, the next major support is then at 12000 (-7%).
Also the TA self fillfulling prophecy will kick in if the double top is formed + 12800 support is broken, from history when this activity happens it has resulted in sudden falls.

These sell signals have been firing for nearly 3 weeks, so all the major markets have been kind to us investors, giving us who believe in the signals an orderly exit within each little rally. However I think time is running out.

I think it is time to dust off the text books on investing in a bear market....the title of this thread.

Warning this present correction may get worse... if so the bull is dead.