THL - Tourism Holdings

[winner69]

I found some good links on IV.

http://intrinsicvalueformula.com/int...for-beginners/

https://www.wikihow.com/Calculate-Intrinsic-Value
6
5 Ways to Calculate Intrinsic Value - wikiHow

http://buffettsbooks.com/howtoinvest....kww1hre5.dpbs

https://www.valuespreadsheet.com/val...calculator-dcf

https://www.oldschoolvalue.com/blog/...-value-stocks/

Here are the seven ways to value stocks

Easy peasy eh .... if it’s that easy i’d Say the intrinsic value of thl is about $4.92

But I’ll sell if offered 6 bucks

[Oliver Mander]

For me taking part of its business entirely depends on the new development and value. Serious investors or mangers have very long term plans. They create long term share holder value for faithful investors. If a company is not running well, not straight forward and they don’t have any long term plan it is wise to sell their stocks as fast as we can. In addition, once stocks become overvalued, eventually they will go down in bear markets.Any price-sensitive announcements have already been factored into the stock’s share price. This is no longer a value share. It is trading above intrinsic value.

I can't agree with that marketwinner. The 'fundamental' value based on their stated earnings, with appropriate risks/probabilities factored in, is a lot higher than the current share price.
That's based off a DCF cashflow model, with a 'perpetual' growth rate of 0% after 10 years (ie, conservative estimate). Discount rate used is not too small either. My estimate of value is around $6 a share.

Even if my value is wrong, most cashflow-based valuers would say the underlying value is more than the current share price.

What is your methodology for saying intrinsic value is less than the current price?

[hardt]

Valuing growth companies using DCF is easily distorted as many have capex intensive growth schemes in place to drive earnings growth over short-medium term that level out once the maturity curve is being reached.

Valuing this one using earnings growth estimates of 44-52 NZDm in 2020 ( 17-19%CAGR )

This presents a PEG of 0.90 at current SP - rather cheap growth and it comes with a 4.2% net yield that will grow more or less inline with earnings.

Anything under $6 seems like a fair price to pay in my opinion...

[Oliver Mander]

Valuing growth companies using DCF is easily distorted as many have capex intensive growth schemes in place to drive earnings growth over short-medium term that level out once the maturity curve is being reached.

Valuing this one using earnings growth estimates of 44-52 NZDm in 2020 ( 17-19%CAGR )

This presents a PEG of 0.90 at current SP - rather cheap growth and it comes with a 4.2% net yield that will grow more or less inline with earnings.

Anything under $6 seems like a fair price to pay in my opinion...

Hardt, I agree! In a growth company like THL, dcf methodology will undershoot the value, although it can be factored in to whatever model is constructed; I like to think I've allowed for that.

Either way, we seem to both agree that marketwinners comment that THL was trading above intrinsic value doesn't sound correct. And sounds like you agree on a fair value estimate of at least $6...

[winner69]

This talk of $6

Would give an Enterprise Value of about $900m ....hmmm ....that sort of value needs some pretty hefty cash flows to be justified

Maybe MARKETWINNER has a point

[Valuegrowth]

It has a long term potential .We have to rely on our own reliable valuation models. In each valuation models there are plus and minus.

Higher valuation should be given to fast growers, cash rich and less debt companies. They are safe as long as they have long term growing businesses. However, that doesn’t mean buying them at very high prices. In other words future strong balance sheets have more value than future weak balance sheets.

http://www.easyaccountancy.co.uk/smallbusinesscentre/how_to_value_my_company.html

[Beagle]

Based on average analyst forecasts, (removes my confirmation bias) THL is trading on a 2018 PE of 15.8. http://www.4-traders.com/TOURISM-HOL...92/financials/
When you consider their track record of growth and stated targets this seems pretty reasonable to me against a backdrop of a market PE of 20.
I think there is still very little, if any, "in play" premium to the current price. I can see why there is the prospect of a takeover at such a moderate PE for a company with their growth track record and more importantly growth prospects going forward and think a current year PE of 18 is easily justified, giving 14% upside from here even without any possible in play premium being added to that so for my money $6 seems achievable.

[sb9]

Based on average analyst forecasts, (removes my confirmation bias) THL is trading on a 2018 PE of 15.8. http://www.4-traders.com/TOURISM-HOL...92/financials/
When you consider their track record of growth and stated targets this seems pretty reasonable to me against a backdrop of a market PE of 20.
I think there is still very little, if any, "in play" premium to the current price. I can see why there is the prospect of a takeover at such a moderate PE for a company with their growth track record and more importantly growth prospects going forward and think a current year PE of 18 is easily justified, giving 14% upside from here even without any possible in play premium being added to that so for my money $6 seems achievable.

Yes, looks very reasonable.

Interesting to note the trading depth has big wall being put at $5 ask....throwing challenge for bidders, let's see how it all unfolds.

[Balance]

Yes, looks very reasonable.

Interesting to note the trading depth has big wall being put at $5 ask....throwing challenge for bidders, let's see how it all unfolds.

Effortlessly!

[sb9]

Effortlessly!

Yes with all indicators ticking up, price volume and VWAP.