CCP Creditcorp

[shasta]

Half year accounts out ...... to me no real increase in amortisation rates of ledgers .... potential for some large writeoffs still exist in my opinion

And debt now $144M -- thats huge on shareholder equity of $69M .... and market cap at $38M .... I'd be worried if I was the bankers even though NTA is reported at 4140 odd

Just my opinion

I got an email from ASB Securities mentioning the changes to there margin lending stocks, see below...

Margin Lending: Advice of lending suspensions




As a courtesy, we wish to advise that we have suspended lending against
the following equities listed on the ASX:



1. AED Oil Ltd (AED)
2. Allco Finance Group (AFG)
3. Credit Corporation Ltd (CCP)



The suspension is effective as at the date of this advice and will
remain in place until further notice.



As a result, there will be no further lending provided against any
purchases in the above companies. We will however, continue to provide
lending against any holdings acquired prior to the effective date. This
lending will remain in place until such time as the holding is sold.

[suntboy]

Just had a quick look at MacQuarrie and they have underperform with a 12 month price at 50 cents.
Dont know anything about them but it makes for damning reading.

[winner69]

Was a brokers report that ended with the comments that suspension could be on the cards so 'SELL at current levels' ...... and some seem to be doing that today

[winner69]

The only positive that could be taken out of todays action is that the shareprice didn't go down into the 60s

Maybe punters taking that analyst advice in case they wake up one morning and CCP is no longer trading

Then again there was a poster on an aussie forum who has never never never seen a company making $10m valued at $30m

At that price if i was Fishers i would average down big time and buy the lot --- maybe thats what Warren suggested ... ha ha .... but they might have a battle with Investors Mutual or something who are building their stake

Isn't is amazing how sentiment changes so quickly ....... a great well run company with a fantastic growth strategy and it becomes a share market darling ......... and then it all turns to custard and nobody wants to touch them ..... the heros are villians ....... the halo effect worn off

And to think I once thought it was a great company too but saw the light of day and stuck with what my fundamental analysis said and sold out 20-30% before the top of their meteoric rise to fame.

Obviously priced for some impending massive writedowns of those ledgers .... if that happens then the directors and management should be shot because the writing has been on the wall for a while and they obviously have been living in hope.

[winner69]

Clime took a large loss on CCP and sold out completely a while ago ... Fishers say in their latest newsletter they don't want to sell at these low prices .... and crystalise a loss

I did say a year ago (and sold out) I was uneasy with their reporting (esp around ledger valuations) and things didn't just stack up.

Clime had faith until recently ..... heres what they said in a recent report to their shareholders -

http://www.clime.com.au/ann_pdfs/080...YearResult.pdf

If still in CCp or intending to get in have a read

[winner69]

Isn't is amazing how sentiment changes so quickly ....... a great well run company with a fantastic growth strategy and it becomes a share market darling ......... and then it all turns to custard and nobody wants to touch them ..... the heros are villians ....... the halo effect worn off

....... and still nobody wants to touch them ......... another all time low today with a close of 45.5 cents

[Stranger_Danger]

At the risk of soon looking like a fool, I am buying, slowly and on weakness. Not going overweight though and definitely risks here - however, I prefer risks I can "see", rather than the "riskless" purchases people were making at $10 or whatever it was when the future was "rosy".

Disc : CCP

[winner69]

Good luck Starnger

What has happened and happening to the CCP shareprice mirrors what happened to the another high flying credit collection company in CLH

CLH couldn't do no wrong post IPO .... one year it was the highest rising stock on the ASX and then valuation problems and a series of downgrades and the share price started to slide ... and 5 years on is still trending down ....chart http://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CLH.AX&t=my

Same sort of business ... same hype in its infancy as a listed company .... realisation that utterly overvalued ..... shareholders desert the sinking ship .... and never return .... the company just gets on and makes 'normal' profits (not pie in the sky forecasts) .... and the the comapny is valued accordingly ... generally based on yield and nothing else

CCP could be different but I doubt it ..... seen it all before

[Stranger_Danger]

Oh, you don't need to tell me about CLH, I'm far more fond of it than CCP lol.

I agree about CLH's history - you should evaluate today though, pretend you've never heard of it before. Look at it fresh at todays price in todays environment. You might get a surprise, or, alternatively, I'm a moron!

Disc : CCP, CLH

[winner69]

Yeah i know that they are track to report $10m this financial. At eps of 23 cents current price 50 cents is so cheap isn't it

So looking forward it all should be OK

However investor behaviour (sentiment) appears to drive share prices more than anything else. History shows that once investors are turned off (or been burnt) by richly valued companies which didn't perform to expectations (even though expectations were outrageous) that compan in the future will always be 'cheap' .... they hardly ever become 'over valued' again.

So why fight investor sentiment is my motto .... look for something good and that investors get excited about.

I have maintained my financial models of CCP up to date mainly to see whether the projections i made about their future impairment costs (or additional ledger writedowns) would come to fruition. To some extent they have but I still consider their assumptions around their ledger valuations (ie amortisation rates) to be on the optimistic side. The projections made for CCp were based on what happened to similar problems in CLH and it is uncanny how things are slowly unfolding

Just a rave ..... looking forward CCP currently at a PE of not much than 2 probably has plenty of upsides ..... and probably you will do oK Stranger ..... all the best