SKC - Sky City

[macduffy]

A moot point, benjitara. The market will be most interested in the yield at the current SP and, of course, prospects for the future. Commentators will focus on that. Not a great result but clearly the market was expecting something worse.

[benjitara]

A moot point, benjitara. The market will be most interested in the yield at the current SP and, of course, prospects for the future. Commentators will focus on that. Not a great result but clearly the market was expecting something worse.

Yes, well I am aware that the dividend will be paid after that point obviously but for their own "goodwill" businesses should surely be open to portraying the most accurate information. sigh ..
A funny company to assess for mine. A few "moat" aspects to the business but what sort of premium should we put on that. I'd be keen on seeing the sp down towards $3 before my money goes on...

[winner69]

Broke the key 360 support yesterday indicating bear territory..next support 340
Depth holding up well with this mornings announcement, around 355c ...
bad news already factored in?

I think punters getting excited about all the new hotels and convention centres {and the big punters losing losing more than as expected) that will make zillions for SKC in years to come.

Remember Blackrock accumulating. They know what they doing

[Balance]

Huge volume still going through - looks like BlackRock is happy to stand there and take whatever the sellers are prepared to sell.

So who has the bigger pocket?

[Balance]

Huge volume still going through - looks like BlackRock is happy to stand there and take whatever the sellers are prepared to sell.

So who has the bigger pocket?

Another big volume day with sp steadily recovering lost ground.

Very clear buyer (s) are very happy to take out all sellers around current levels.

Watch the institutions back off selling as a recovering sp will hurt their performances if they are underweight the stock.

[Balance]

Well said mate and looks like a real sign of desperation to paint a slightly less grim picture. As for a massive expansion into Australia when the south Australian states are starting to implode with the imminent complete collapse of the Australian motor vehicle industry and the hundreds of associated small business component manufacturers leading to record unemployment...this is one of the worst timed business decisions you can imagine. $50B Federal deficit in Australia this year which won't be solved anytime soon either. Massive capex in Australia the panacea for a negative growth environment in New Zealand...I don't think so !! Frankly if you want to have a punt on this puppy, I think your odds are better inside one of their casino's than owning shares in them !!

Sadly, Roger, it is a truism that in good times people drink and gamble but in bad times, people drink and gamble even more?

[maknz]

Surely people don't buy that very creative accounting of normalising international win ratio, or do they ?

It makes sense to me given they're in the gambling industry - they're going to be prone to statistical variance. Normalizing for win-ratio (expected value) is sensible for mid-long term profit projections.

It would be interesting to see if they exceed their expected win ratio, whether they normalize profit downwards too. If not, then it's definitely convenient and creative accounting.

[Balance]

It makes sense to me given they're in the gambling industry - they're going to be prone to statistical variance. Normalizing for win-ratio (expected value) is sensible for mid-long term profit projections.

It would be interesting to see if they exceed their expected win ratio, whether they normalize profit downwards too. If not, then it's definitely convenient and creative accounting.

It's a nonsense, maknz, as far as I am concerned because normalization is to take out one-offs (used to be called abnormals) to show underlying performance.

Presumably the accounting standards these days allow this nonsense but as they say, an accountant will ask you what profits you want to report and adjust accordingly to achieve!

[Snoopy]

NPAT reported as $98m is a lot less than last years $127m isn't it

Love the way they say if we had made as much as we expected from our international business we would have made $15m - so lets normalise it eh and call it profit anyway.

What a rort. Surely in the gambling game you win and you lose. Those naughty punters winning more than they meant too and we spent. Fortune on entertaining them as well. Ironic in that 'the house' not winning as 'expected'

I'll run with the real number. SKC really push the boundaries of this "normalised profit" stuff. Maybe indicative of the culture involved with glamour and gambling

I think you have it wrong Winner.

Rather than implicitly criticising Nigel Morrison, you should be praising the theoretical Nigel Morrison. I am talking about the one that booked the theoretical high roller win rate for Sky City IF those dice had landed according to how statistics said they should have landed. In theory those high roller profits should have been real. And the least you could do is give some theoretical praise for the theoretical Nigel Morrison who did book those statiscally expected 'normalised profit's if the dice had landed the right way, at least in theory.

SNOOPY

[Snoopy]

It's a pretty sick chart at present. I'll wait for the announcement.

As I predicted the share price did bounce on the profit announcement. Ok at $3.62, it is still a few cents below the $3.65 I paid last week. But a few cents is neither here nor there taking the long view. Dividend is steady. The real engine of the company, the Auckland casino, probably going a little better than expected. Good luck to those waiting for a $3 entry price.

SNOOPY