Dow

[stoploss]

hi anyone can tell me..if we can open broker trading account in nz

You might have to be more specific , where exactly are you trying to open one from ? It is possible to open sharebroker accounts in New Zealand.

[Baa_Baa]

The DOW constantly confounds even the most observant. And the NZX closely follows the DOW.

There will be a bust, we all know that is how the markets (economies) work. However when it will happen continues to confound over and over again. When it does happen, it happens way faster than most can or will be able to respond. There is something we can do about it other than watching and trying to time an exit.

Just do a simple thing ... put some stop-losses on your shares and maintain them frequently. One day you'll be in cash watching the capitulation and patting yourself on the back for such foresight, and be well positioned for when the time comes to re-invest.

BAA

[kiora]

The DOW constantly confounds even the most observant. And the NZX closely follows the DOW.

There will be a bust, we all know that is how the markets (economies) work. However when it will happen continues to confound over and over again. When it does happen, it happens way faster than most can or will be able to respond. There is something we can do about it other than watching and trying to time an exit.

Just do a simple thing ... put some stop-losses on your shares and maintain them frequently. One day you'll be in cash watching the capitulation and patting yourself on the back for such foresight, and be well positioned for when the time comes to re-invest.

BAA

Goldman Sachs where right on the button in 2013.Will they be right in 2015 ?
http://www.businessinsider.com.au/go...t-2100-2014-11
No reason to think they won't be

[Daytr]

I think very DOW specific we will see corporate earnings hurt in this quarter due to the high dollar & a dump in energy.
Lower energy prices are likely to have a positive impact on retail such as Home Depot & Walmart although consumer confidence has been on the wane.
Obviously the likes Exxon & Chevron will drag down the index considerably.

Most of the DOW companies earn quite a bit offshore & this is where a high dollar hurts.

By the way I have just shorted. ;-)

[kiora]

Maybe interest rates will go up sooner than later with US unemployment dropping ?
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11413967

[Daytr]

DOW bounces becoming shorter & shorter, forming lower highs.
I have been batting the DOW back & forth quite successfully for most of the year, picking it up around 17.5k and selling 18.1-2k area & shorting.
Looks like we may see a test of the lows. Apple now being part of the index has been hurting it in recent days as expectations of expanding growth are being reigned in. In percentage terms their growth is likely to come back but in dollar terms its still expanding quickly. Higher USD weighing on multi nationals, soon to be higher interest rates (not such a problem imo).
So I'm a little torn as I back the likes of Apple to come good, however the index itself looks vulnerable.
Perhaps lower first & that creates an opportunity?
Others thoughts?

[Hoop]

DOW bounces becoming shorter & shorter, forming lower highs............. however the index itself looks vulnerable.
Perhaps lower first & that creates an opportunity?
Others thoughts?

I'm going to make an opinionated guess (risk of egg on face) and say .....The 6 year old DOW Bull is dead... it died 5 months ago
Note: ..Not yet confirmed by DOW Theory(Confirmed by DOW transport (considered unreliable these days) but not yet by the S&P500)

I personally think the DOW has been in Stage 1 of a Cyclic Bear Market Cycle for 5 months in the shape of a longer term trading range pattern... Many of my personal Cycle Reversal Indicating "Ducks" have been waddling around in an increasingly lengthening row with other ducks joining the line every now and again since early 2014... Usually Stage 1 of the Bear Cycle is very hard to determine and leading indicators can get slowed down or arrested once formed (e.g FED manipulation) ...that's my excuse if I'm wrong..

Something else to remember with Cycle Theory ...Cycles always go forward, never backwards..they are distance traveled events and not time dependent...therefore a cycle can be slowed or stopped but can not go in reverse..Like death and taxes a bear cycle after a bull cycle is inevitable.

In DOW Theory Stage 1 is the Distribution Phase
This phase can be variable in time...and can take various pattern shapes..Since 1999 the DOW has seen two different types of Stage One Bear Cycles
1... a trading range pattern with one or 2 warning dips that quickly recover due to dip buying. This pattern lasted for many months (8 months in 2000) with only a hint from the straddled MA200 of a slightly bent downward trend.
2...The 2007 stage 1 lasted for only 9 weeks with a double top bearish pattern and consisted of a sharper peak type formation with larger volatility. The Media and the Public think of a bear market cycle as dramatic so they assume every bear cycle will have this type of Stage 1. In practice it is the rarer of the two types mentioned.

Usually a stage 1 bear is the 1 type mentioned above and therefore goes unnoticed by most investors as they are still optimistic about the future outlook of their country's economy..and the fundamentally rosy looking forward earning projections

Stage 1 becomes noticeable after it ends and the more destructive Stage 2 (10-20+%) dips with sucker rally recoveries become the "norm"...even then there will be investors + Gurus still in denial..This is the stage that TAers see their sell signals appear and sell long and start buying short or play the sucker rally game.

The last stage (3) is the characteristic doom and gloom capitulation phase that most people think of when talking Bear Market Cycles..

[Joshuatree]

Thanks for taking the egg risk there Hoop, appreciate it. What have you done to prepare for it and if stage 2 is say 10-20% drop , how big is stage 3 roughly?

[Daytr]

You maybe right Hoop, I said something similar quite a while ago with the strong USD going to hurt earnings & that's what we are now starting to see.
I don't see a massive collapse though, but maybe a revisit of 17,000 where its bounced of a few times a while back.

[Hoop]

Thanks for taking the egg risk there Hoop, appreciate it. What have you done to prepare for it and if stage 2 is say 10-20% drop , how big is stage 3 roughly?

The ol saying.. when America catches a cold we all suffer. New York Stock Exchange is the biggest money machine (Mkt Cap) in the world..Three times bigger than the NASDAQ in second place ..followed closely by the London Stock Market in 3rd place..China's Shanghai is 20% the size of NYSE in 5th place...Japan is just in front of China in 4th place ...so its common sense really to expect a global ripple effect when American exchanges "tank". As a mostly NZ and sometime OZ investor I like to know the mental state of the Elephant I'm in the room with..
That's why I keep a close eye on the NYSE.. also its fun and very educational to boot...as there is a wealth of historic data most of it freely available, not like the NZX which operates as a secret society then bitches and groans that the NZ public don't invest enough into NZ's economy via NZX.

What have you done to prepare for it.. Note: Investors use their own tailor-made methodologies that best suit their mental dispositions. This is my investment methodology modeled somewhat on Phaedrus (old ST member) TA methodology... During times of caution I tighten somewhat on my TA discipline. During my get out warnings my TA discipline says "Strict abidance" all TA sell signals must be actioned upon no matter how good the shares may seem to be....This is good practice as TA takes away bad behavioural habits such as emotion (falling in love with a stock), the destructive "state of denial", procrastination and misaligned optimism...
TA Cry wolf stuff is easy fixed..you just buy back in when TA emits buy signals once again for your stock.
...if stage 2 is say 10-20% drop , how big is stage 3 roughly? Depends...Elliott wave theorists say the c wave(stage 3) is the biggest down wave..
Bear cycles are always >-20% otherwise they are called bull market corrections. There have been mild bear markets which some have called severe bull market corrections...On the other side of the coin there were differing opinions whether the 2011 NYSE severe bull market correction should've been called a short sharp but mild bear market cycle. That correction or cycle didn't have a big c wave it was arrested...just goes to show there ain't no such thing as a perfect world