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  1. #1
    ****
    Join Date
    May 2013
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    NZ
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    Forever amen! Has this trouncing really had anything to do with the possibility of perhaps a 0.25% rise in rates?
    Sure the USD strength has played quite a major role, but that was probably more triggered by events in Europe such as their massive QE program than the US maybe, one day in the never never raising rates.

    Looks to me like a good sell zone on the DOW here. Just back to where the last major correction was in October.
    Unless I see oil particularly WTI have a sustainable bounce then the worst is still yet to come in my view.
    I fully expect to see a debt crisis triggered by the loans & exposure to the North American shale oil production.
    The WTI forward curve is still giving them about $7 i.e. $45 on the 12 month, but do you lock that in?
    Probably still not high enough to make money.
    Hopefully you find my posts helpful, but in no way should they be construed as advice. Make your own decision.

  2. #2
    Membaa
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Location
    Paradise
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    5,410

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    Update 21/10 (20/10 USA pre market open)
    Never mind that Shanghai is off 3%, maybe it'll bounce back. DOW futures still ahead a smidgeon up at time of posting but not above the massive technical resistance. You'd think world peace had broken out, sovereign debt and deflation had been fixed, US corporate earnings were in aggregate boosting and US employment on the up tick? All the while NZX seems immune or blind to the current topping process in the US. We'll see about that soon enough, after all there's plenty of US big money in our equities market.

    Update 20/10 (19/10 USA)
    : DOW was down a bit for the whole session until the very last when it popped up above the open, forming a 'hanging man' candle for the day, a bearish reversal signal, though requiring confirmation. DOW futures are down again slightly as at time of posting this.

    ---
    DOW gets anti-gravity. The news is full of 'no US interest rate rises' this year and on balance, corporate results are looking OK, so here we are, DOW puts on the booster. Now above the 100EMA and right on massive overhead resistance including trend lines and the 200EMA, all indicators perked up. The stage is set for an epic battle between bulls and bears.

    Attachment 7674
    Last edited by Baa_Baa; 21-10-2015 at 08:51 PM. Reason: Update

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