Dow

[ananda77]

The old bottom (7500) which is now a resistence level has been respected..

....hmmmm interesting...sort of dampens this latest media hype of a quick large bearmarket rally

...after the strongest 7-trading day SPX500 rally since 1939 (20%) topping at SPX500 *803, the SPX500 in the short term:

-support *735 (50% retracement of the March 09 rally) holding >target SPX500 *875

-support *735 broken >target SPX500 = 61.8% retracement 1973-2007 rally *640; July 1996 low *606 possible;

...just one of many interesting facts for the short term view of a bottom:

-Selling climaxes occur when a stock makes a new 12-month low, but then closes the week on the upside

Long Term: no more than a breather from the long term bear market still unfolding

Trading Strategy: sideline until resolved (safest) or if SPX500 short *791 >use stop

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

belgarion:

...only sharing my research;

Kind Regards

[Hoop]

Dead "MEOW" bounce!

DOW closed 7776 up 500 points

It seems your cat is made of flubber DrW and it has been dropped from a great height.

Your cat has super- bounced up through a major resistance point (old bottom) and is closing in on this huge band of resistances between 7900-8500. Remember the period between Jan - Feb 2009 when the DOW's huge selling pressure had trouble breaking downwards through this wide band.....

The Million Dollar question is... has the DOW got enough momentum and buying pressure this time around to push upwards through that band past 8500?.
From the Jan - Feb 2009 experience this wide band is a difficult zone requiring much energy to push through it.

If it manages to break through that band to the 8600 mark this must be seen as extremely bullish as that band becomes then becomes a huge massive support again.

Can the DOW get to 8600? I think Ichimoku charts may help to analyse how strong the DOW is, in relation to the strength of that 7900-8500 resistance band, by seeing where the Kumo is and whether the DOW has passed above it or not. I suspect the Kumo maybe situated around the 7900 -8500 ...are my suspicions correct? Can any Ichimoku followers help with this?
I will post part of this post on the Forex/DOW thread

[ananda77]

...as expected, a strong counter trend rally is now in it's initial phase and after today's power advance, the SPX500 *1000/1100 target remains a realistic possibility for the medium term;

...however, for the very short term, like couple of days, markets would do us a great favor with a 'kitcat move'; maybe still a bit of muscle flexing at the open but otherwise, a bit early for all this bull euphoria just yet;

Trading Strategy: if not already long equities or sold today expecting a down move next couple of days, buy on weakness with short stops respectfully placed down the line

Kind Regards

[outspoken]

I'll go out on a limb here and say that the AIG debacle will result in Geitner using his power (today he said he has) to wind them down. They have already channeled hundreds of billions through to their cronie mates at Goldman, Meryl etc. They will be "allowed to fail" and the resulting backlash will send the Dow down to it's expected new lows.
Big call, I am probably 100% wrong, but maybe I'm not.

[Stranger_Danger]

I think you're wrong. If we go to new lows, it'll be something new, unexpected - something shocking.

That AIG is a swindle is not shocking or unexpected.

[ananda77]

...more SPX500 upside potential possible short term if:

-SPX500 *791 successfully defended

...medium Term (1 or 2 months+):

-SPX500 *950/*1000/(*1100)???? a realistic possibility

...long term (end of summer into fall +):

2nd. even more ferocious leg down expected based on fundamentals

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

...likely, that SPX500 wants to test *766 before challenging *875 if test successful

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

...31 March 2009 end of quarter -always a good time to rigg the market just a bit for good looks-

...no matter what, if SPX500 closes above February month low its a reversal month, bullish outcome

...just weired market action today as the market missed giving *750/*766 a thorough testing;

Kind Regards

[Hoop]

DOW respected the 7500 floor so now expect the upward buying pressure to have another assault at boring its way through that thick ceiling (cluster of resistance lines within that 7900-8500 zone)