Dow

[Hoop]

Fibonacci Retracement at its spooky textbook best....
A hanging man on Friday....a bearish candlestick giving a warning...
The dead cat bounce event is still in play..

Today the DOW rose to 16493 +391 +2.43% its second best day for 2015
The dead cat event is still in play...
The DCB hesitated at the 61.8% Fib hurdle which could mean there is a good chance that is the DCB top area...
The possible DCB event pattern being formed says the Investors who are buying in now (influenced by rosy media reports) are playing against the odds.
The average period for a DCB event to play out ranges from 5 to 25 days..
The updated chart below has today's candle manually drawn in
More info on a DCB here

[Daytr]

I shorted this morning around the 16,485 area.
Looks like a pretty good level.
Chinese market will be interesting to watch today after a spectacular rally yesterday.

[Hoop]

Hi Hoop,

Just a quick question on your DOW chart ... why have you used the dates that you have for the Fibs ... I have the start 18 Aug - end 24 August

Thanks
BAA

Hmmm..how on earth did that happen?...You are so right Baa..thanks for that
Updated with the correct FIB settings but without todays candlestick

[Bobcat.]

S&P500 is also showing resistance at 1974 which will need to be broken before the Bears amongst us get nervous. Too much has been made of China's improved Trade Balance IMO. If you break it down, both Exports and Imports have dropped - hardly the sign of a rebounding economy:

Exports down 5.5%
Imports down 13.8%

http://www.gcitrading.com/forex-economic-calendar

Accordingly, I think we're seeing too much optimism. The AUD and NZD are up more than a cent over the past 24hrs (and that's with an expected drop in our OCR tomorrow!). I've just now gone long on BBOZ.asx expecting a correction to this correction later tonight.

[Valuegrowth]

We should see year end rally for DOW.

[Baa_Baa]

We should see year end rally for DOW.

Good timing for a bear trap, with the likes of GS ramping into year end. And then the capitulation. I still don't share the optimism, preferring caution to see key resistances broken before calling the end to the current downturn.

[Bobcat.]

Nikkei is up a whopping 7.7%. Largest daily gain for many years.

[Daytr]

Resistance well & truly tested, but the run ultimately failed & markets thumped from their intra day highs.
See US job vacancies jumped half a million! Seems an incredible number.

[Bjauck]

... And now that its been safely chained back up to the Eurozone, we can forget about it (at least until it, or another country, decide to try to escape again)

Weren't the Greeks keen to stay within the Euro? I thought they wanted a currency propped up by German rectitude so that little Greece could continue on their profligate ways. It was the Germans and some others who were on the point of jettisoning Greece from the Euro.

[Hoop]

The DOW going up again today are making investors more optimistic...however the chart is showing a waiting game with high risk

As the chart can have patterns within patterns so too can events having events within them
The updated chart below shows a nearly played out pennant event which could be (may not) be within a dead cat bounce event.
In other words the dead cat bounce formation is still in play...

Time heals and as time goes on the chances of recovery for the technically broken DOW improve....Chances of a dead cat bounce failure at return to a new high 25%...chances of a pennant breakout upwards is 40%...Note :...The pennant breakout upwards does not indicate the failure of the DCB event formation..The DCB formation will still be in play.